Every fantasy football player has their own tolerance for risk when drafting. Personally, I like to have a balance of high-ceiling players and high-floor players. Not everyone will agree, but I don’t tend to win in fantasy football leagues where I am too invested in one or the other. That being said, here are some potential fantasy football busts to avoid, players who feel risky to me based on their current ADP at their position and my thoughts about why I think that way. You can find all of my early fantasy football busts here. Below we dive into a few players to avoid.
- Fitz’s Fantasy Football Draft Primers
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid
Jalen Hurts (QB – PHI) – ADP QB2
After finishing as QB2 overall and in points per game last year, I get why fantasy football drafters are in on Hurts again. His 21 points per game was a difference-maker for many teams. However, the team is going through a transition in 2024. They also lost veteran center Jason Kelce. I think this could be a tough year for Hurts and the Eagles offense at large.
Hurts was 14th in passing yards and 13th in passing touchdowns. On the flipside, he was 3rd in rushing yards and tied with Josh Allen for first with 15 rushing touchdowns. Second place was 6 TDs. The upside of Hurts was the tush push, and I’m just not sure if that will be as common this year. I’m not entirely out on Hurts, but I think QB2 is much less likely than QB5. Because of that, I’m fine letting someone else take that risk.
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND) – ADP RB5
Running back is tougher than usual this year. The guys at the top all have potential question marks. That makes it tough for me to spend an early pick on them. Taylor specifically only played in 10 games last year. Because of that, he finished as RB33 overall in PPR scoring. However, he finished as RB12 in PPG when he was on the field. Granted, a lot of this was without QB Anthony Richardson, who should be back this year.
Like many NFL teams right now, the Colts need an identity. They have the talent; they just need everyone to stay healthy. Obviously, we can’t predict that, but I still think RB5 is too early for me. I’d rather wait at the RB position and take someone “cheaper” later on. I don’t like using early draft capital on someone with Taylor’s history and uncertain future.
Josh Jacobs (RB – GB) – ADP RB10
Much like Taylor, Jacobs missed time last year and underwhelmed overall. He finished RB28 overall in PPR scoring and RB18 in PPG. All of this was with the Las Vegas Raiders, who were a team trying to figure out who they were. Now Jacobs is on the Packers. Is that a step up or a lateral move, though?
I can see both sides here. On the one hand, Jacobs should see a similar kind of workload of almost 18 carries per game that he saw last year. On the other hand, Jacobs goes to a team where AJ Dillon was previously the heir apparent and could be more of a threat to the RB1 role. I’m not saying that Jacobs will struggle this year, but whenever a player changes teams, I hesitate to lock them into a similar workload. I’ll probably pass on Jacobs unless he falls to me a round or two later than his current ADP.
More Fantasy Football Draft Advice
Expert Must-Have Draft Picks
Fitz’s Fantasy Football Draft Primers
Erickson’s Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
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Andrew Hall is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his profile and follow him @AndrewHallFF.