Fantasy Football ADP Analysis: Superflex Drafts

The Superflex fantasy football format continues to grow in popularity, and thanks to the evolution of the quarterback position we see particularly fun quarterbacks at the top of ADP (average draft position), but what else stands out? In this article, we’ll dive deep into Superflex ADP data and analyze what feels good and what feels bad.

Superflex ADP analysis

Round 1

Josh Allen is the unquestioned 1.01 after finishing as the QB1 in three of the past four seasons, with QB2 his only blemish. Allen is likely to see some regression from the 15 rushing touchdowns he scored in 2023, closer to the 7.6 per year he’s scored over the previous five years, but Allen has shown that he can be a top option with or without that many rushing touchdowns and deserves this pick. After Allen it becomes a marginal difference between Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. Jackson was a league-winner in 2023 with 36.3 points in Week 17, but whereas the Ravens prefer not to use him around the goal line, the Eagles prioritize using Hurts there, which amplifies his value. Neither option is a bad choice. After the top three, it’s not unusual to see Patrick Mahomes, CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson follow quickly. In our FantasyPros rankings, Christian McCaffrey is the first non-QB at 1.05 and he’s joined by four wide receivers in the first round, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson.

Four quarterbacks have averaged 20+ fantasy points per game for their career in NFL history (min. 16 starts):

Patrick Mahomes (22.4)
Josh Allen (22.2)
Deshaun Watson (20.6)
Kyler Murray (20.2)
…
Lamar Jackson (19.9) would also qualify w/o the nine non-start games as a rookie.

– Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 30, 2024

Round 2

After seven quarterbacks are drafted in the first 12 picks, only four more go in Round 2 with Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love and Brock Purdy next off the board. Murray feels primed for a bounce back a year further removed from the ACL injury that caused him to lose time in 2023 along with having Marvin Harrison Jr. to throw to. Prescott finished as QB3 having thrown for 36 touchdowns this past year, but drafters seem hesitant to push him into the top tier of quarterbacks due to a lack of rushing upside and only one truly excellent pass-catcher. However, nothing has changed for Prescott, and betting on another year of him having to do everything, could pay off handsomely. If you’ve taken a QB in Round 1 then Round 2 is ideal for adding a WR or RB, as doubling down on QB can leave you behind the curve at not just one position but two.

Round 3

As QB13, Justin Herbert has fallen to the third round of Superflex drafts despite being a firm Round 1 fixture for most of his NFL career. Fantasy managers are concerned the effects of losing Keenan Allen and Mike Williams and replacing them with Ladd McConkey and DJ Chark will lead to a less fruitful offense under offensive coordinator Greg Roman and there’s plenty of evidence to back that up, with Roman’s 2021 and 2022 Ravens offense ranking 17th and 20th in scoring. Herbert is a better QB2 for a Superflex roster than a QB1 at this point unless you plan to load up on wide receivers in Rounds 1 and 2 and then attack QB later. By the end of Round 3, 17 quarterbacks have been selected and 13 wide receivers, compared to only six running backs and no tight ends.

Justin Herbert being the QB17 on Underdog is absolutely criminal. I would bet my salary for a year that barring injury he finishes the season QB15 or better

– FF Freiermuth Fanclub (@CivilFoodFightz) May 6, 2024

Round 4

In Round 4 we see our first tight ends taken with both Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce drafted. Both tight ends can provide a huge positional advantage but both come with issues. Touchdowns are one of the least sticky stats in football and if LaPorta had scored three fewer touchdowns, in line with nearly all the top options at the position, then his total points and points per game for the season would have dropped him to TE4. Meanwhile, Kelce was purposely used less during the 2023 regular season to keep him fresh for the playoffs and now faces a far greater level of competent pass-catching competition in Kansas City. Jayden Daniels at QB18 could be the “late-round” steal of Superflex drafts having thrown for 3811 yards and 40 touchdowns in his final season at LSU, while also rushing for 1250 yards and 10 touchdowns. Daniels had excellent options in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. but he still has solid options in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, not to mention the rest of the Commanders pass catchers.

Round 5

By Round 5 we enter the area of the draft where the talent is still clear but question marks remain. Former Round 1 players such as Derrick Henry and Cooper Kupp find themselves in this range as Father Time starts to make them less favorable and WR2s like DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle land here also. De’Von Achane rounds out the fifth round and might just be one of the highest-ceiling players in fantasy. Achane will of course see a regression from the eye-popping 7.8 yards per carry he boasted in 2023 – and the addition of Jaylen Wright and re-signing of Raheem Mostert is also noteworthy – but in a game where we want week-winning performances, Achane’s five games of 19 or more points in 2023 is hard to shy away from. Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback drafted in this round and his range of outcomes feels massive coming off a torn Achilles at age 40. In Single QB formats, Rodgers is drafted anywhere between pick Nos. 123 to 154 depending on the platform, but in Superflex, it’s hard to argue he’s not a top-20 option, and if so, he deserves to be taken this high.

Round 6

Another round filled with upside is Round 6 where Malik Nabers, who was some teams WR1 in the NFL draft, falls as the WR27 overall. Nabers is explosive and adds an element the Giants haven’t had since the early years of Odell Beckham Jr., while Daniel Jones isn’t particularly inspiring, Nabers could still represent a true difference-maker in his rookie year. Trey McBride faces increased competition for targets with Marvin Harrison Jr. arriving in Arizona, but a rising tide can lift all boats and help this offense be more fruitful in general. McBride boasted a 27% target share after Zach Ertz‘s injury but only scored three touchdowns, and if he can bring that closer in line to the top options he has TE1 overall potential in his outcomes. Deshaun Watson and Geno Smith are the only quarterbacks drafted in this round. Watson in particular feels like a trap, given his only good games in 2023 came against awful defenses in the Bengals, Cardinals and Titans.

Malik Nabers putting in WORK pic.twitter.com/XBDfXwPCnv

– Marshall Green (@MarshallGreen_) May 5, 2024

Round 7

If Tee Higgins is healthy, and if Joe Burrow can stay injury free, then Higgins could be a bargain at the top of the seventh round. He had three years in a row with 105+ targets before a down year in 2023 with 76 as the Bengals spluttered. It’s worth considering that while Higgins didn’t string it all together this past year, he had a career-high 15.6 yards per reception. If the Bengals continue to use him like that, it could make for some very big performances. Tank Dell sees his ADP land in this range, and if it wasn’t for the addition of Stefon Diggs it would be much higher after Dell scored 20+ points in three of his ten healthy games in 2023. Derek Carr rounds out the seventh and is the only QB taken in this range after failing to finish as a top-12 QB since 2016 and finishing outside the top-15 QBs in the past two seasons. The Saints have a new offensive coordinator, but it’s unlikely they turn into fantasy gold anytime soon.

Round 8

By this stage in the draft we’re down to committee running backs like Najee Harris and Jalen Warren, who go back to back as RB26 and RB27, along with quarterbacks with question marks such as Daniel Jones and J.J McCarthy. In single-QB formats, the question marks would be more concerning but in Superflex, we need to be looking for QB3s at this point to provide bye-week cover and both players should be plenty adequate for that, while also giving us much higher potential ceilings.

Najee Harris vs. Jaylen Warren in 2023 pic.twitter.com/t1Pc51UyW1

– Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 2, 2024

Rounds 9 onwards

By this point in the draft, the quarterbacks completely dry up with Drake Maye and Bryce Young the only viable starters left over, outside of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields who seem unlikely to start every week. Wide receiver quality takes a dip around pick 120 as we get to WR48 Jakobi Meyers, so it can be helpful to have made sure you’re well covered at that position before now too. Taking a Hero RB approach can help here. If we take a single RB in the first three rounds, along with a QB and WR, then prioritize positions outside of running back, we can make up for it with a quantity-over-quality approach from Round 9 onwards where players like Raheem Mostert, Tyjae Spears and Brian Robinson Jr. are easily acquired.

More Fantasy Football Draft Advice

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

Fantasy Draft Advice NFL Josh Allen Lamar Jackson Jalen Hurts Patrick Mahomes CJ Stroud Anthony Richardson Christian McCaffrey CeeDee Lamb Tyreek Hill Justin Jefferson Deshaun Watson Kyler Murray Dak Prescott Jordan Love Brock Purdy Marvin Harrison Jr. Justin Herbert Keenan Allen Mike Williams Ladd McConkey DJ Chark Sam LaPorta Travis Kelce Jayden Daniels Malik Nabers Brian Thomas Jr. Terry McLaurin Jahan Dotson Derrick Henry Cooper Kupp DeVonta Smith Jaylen Waddle De’Von Achane Jaylen Wright Raheem Mostert Aaron Rodgers Odell Beckham Jr. Daniel Jones Trey McBride Zach Ertz Geno Smith Tee Higgins Joe Burrow Tank Dell Stefon Diggs Derek Carr Najee Harris Jaylen Warren Drake Maye Bryce Young Russell Wilson Justin Fields Jakobi Meyers Tyjae Spears Brian Robinson Jr.

About Author

Tom Strachan

@NFL_Tstrack

I'm a fantasy football addict, particularly in love with best ball and DFS. I can often be found scrutinising ADP and looking for edges in the best ball streets.