Which players are enjoying an unsustainable hot streak right now? Which players are uncharacteristically cold? And, which have been receiving too much or too little luck of late?
This weekly article highlights players who are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance to assist fantasy managers in viewing each one properly. Digging underneath the surface stats, we examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
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- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
(Stats up to date through May 6)
Players Due for Positive Regression
A right shoulder impingement prevented Edward Cabrera from making his season debut for the Marlins until April 15. That day, he dominated the Giants over six innings, surrendering just one run on five hits with 10 strikeouts. He walked just one batter, and that had fantasy prognosticators even more excited about Cabrera’s outlook going forward this season.
Well, the walks have returned since that first outing, as Cabrera has issued nine free passes in 13 1/3 innings over his last three starts. He’s still piled up 20 strikeouts (31.7 K%) in that span, but an 8.10 ERA and 1.73 WHIP have been frustrating for fantasy managers. The fact that two of those starts came against the Nationals and Rockies in Miami is even more frustrating.
There have still been reasons for encouragement despite the poor results for Cabrera during this three-start stretch. The 26-year-old hurler has limited opponents to a 26.5 HardHit% and 82.9 mph EV while inducing groundballs at a 57.6% clip. That’s gotten him a .375 BABIP. Expect that to change, and if Cabrera can reign the walks back in even a little, he will be a valuable asset.
Matt Olson’s pitiful offensive output in recent weeks is Exhibit A in the argument that the baseballs around the league have been “deadened.” After blasting a league-leading 54 homers in 2023 and averaging 42 over the last three years, the All-Star cleanup man has hit just three in 32 games this season, with the last one coming exactly one month ago on April 7. Olson has been really struggling since mid-April, but the lack of production has been quite perplexing given his batted-ball metrics.
Dating back to April 15, Olson has gone just 6-for-59 (.102 AVG) with one extra-base hit and only five RBI. His 25.7 K% is high but not out of control, and he’s walked at a 16.2% clip. He needs to make a bit more contact, but his 61.0 HardHit% actually ranks eighth in the league among all qualified hitters during this span, while his 95.3 EV is fourth-best. Olson also has five Barrels (12.2%) during this slump.
Teoscar Hernandez just threw out Matt Olson at second base with a hose from right field. Played it perfectly off the wall and fired an absolute missile. pic.twitter.com/VUlGOyyyel
— Kyle Glaser (@KyleAGlaser) May 5, 2024
It seems highly unlikely that this drought will continue much longer, as Olson is actually hitting the ball harder on average right now than he did last season. The guy can’t buy a break right now.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Like Cabrera, Jameson Taillon began the season on the IL. Unlike Cabrera, Taillon has been consistently solid since returning for his 2024 debut back on April 19. Over four starts, the veteran righty has put up an immaculate 1.13 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 16-to-5 K/BB across 24 innings. He’s logged at least five frames while allowing one earned run or less each time out, and though the strikeouts (17.0 K%) have been down overall, Taillon racked up a season-high seven punchouts in his most recent start this past Saturday.
So, where are the issues for Taillon? First off, his .197 BABIP that has resulted in a .180 AVG against is simply unsustainable. While he has notably limited hard contact (32.9%, 86.1 EV), alongside a ridiculously low 9.7 LD% on the campaign so far, Taillon’s long track record suggests all those marks are in line for a course correction. Over the last three seasons combined, he has recorded a 38.3 HardHit%, 88.1 EV and 23.3 LD%, leading to a .281 BABIP.
Taillon is a rotation stabilizer who can eat up some valuable innings for his MLB club. He has not proven to be an incredibly reliable hurler for standard fantasy formats in several years. With a 4.29 xFIP hiding behind his remarkable surface stats right now, that does not seem likely to change for the long term. Taillon is better suited as a deep-league option or matchup-based streamer.
In 2022, Jake McCarthy finished fourth for the NL Rookie of the Year award after hitting .283 with a .769 OPS and 23 steals over 99 games. The speedy outfielder fell off and struggled to remain an everyday player last year, putting up a .243 AVG and .644 OPS over another 99 games. He did swipe 26 bases in 2023, but his overall output kept drafters understandably skeptical this past preseason.
As of late, McCarthy has looked more like that 2022 version of himself over the 2023 one. He’s batting .311 on the season and a cool .354 (17 for 48) over his last 15 games. In that 15-game hot streak, he’s come up with a couple of doubles, one triple, six RBI, eight runs and three steals.
The glaring metric underneath it all for McCarthy is a .425 BABIP that stands to drop significantly, given his 16.7 HardHit% and 85.7 EV. He will steal bases, but that’s the only category in which McCarthy can be relied upon to contribute.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros. He has been an analyst in the fantasy sports industry for the past decade, covering the NFL and MLB. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.
