Which players are enjoying an unsustainable hot streak right now? Which players are uncharacteristically cold? And, which have been receiving too much or too little luck of late?
This weekly article highlights players who are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance to assist fantasy managers in viewing each one properly. Digging underneath the surface stats, we examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
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Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
(Stats up to date through May 13)
Players Due for Positive Regression
Bo Bichette has not produced anywhere close to the level that fantasy managers have come to expect this season. Through 38 games, the two-time All-Star is lugging around a .218 AVG and .581 OPS. This is a player who had career marks of .299 and .827 over more than 500 games in those categories coming into 2024. Fortunately, there have been signs of life in recent days.
Following an ugly 3-for-40 skid during the last week of April and the first week of May, Bichette has hit safely in his last five games and picked up his first three-hit game of the year Monday. He has gone 8-for-20 with a homer in this streak, and there should be more production to come. Even in that dreadful slump, Bichette recorded a 50.0 HardHit% and 92.8 EV while making plenty of contact (84.9 Contact%, 95.0 Z-Contact%).
Like Bichette, Jesus Luzardo has already begun to show some course correction. He returned to the Marlins’ rotation this past Saturday after a 20-day absence due to a muscle strain in his throwing arm. Simply put, the result was promising, as the lefty held a strong Philadelphia offense to just two runs on four hits and a walk while striking out eight across 5 2/3 innings.
Final line for Jesus Luzardo:
5.2 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 SO, 79 NP#Marlins pic.twitter.com/YupygpKBsH
— Kevin Barral (@kevin_barral) May 11, 2024
Luzardo put up a similar stat line on the road against the Cubs just before going on the IL, but even with those two solid efforts, his ERA remains up at 5.97, alongside a 1.33 WHIP. Compare those to a 3.48 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 50 starts between the past two years, and it’s easy to see the concern some fantasy managers have. However, those elevated marks are mostly a product of back-to-back rough outings against the Yankees and Braves.
A 3.86 xFIP is hiding behind Luzardo’s near 6.00 ERA. Also, among pitchers who have logged at least 30 innings this season, he ranks fifth in contact rate (69.1%), seventh in swinging-strike rate (14.9%) and 29th in strikeout rate (26.3%). Look for increasingly improved ratios and plenty of punchouts from Luzardo moving forward.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Edmundo Sosa continued to swing a hot bat Monday, going 2-fo- 3 with a double and a run. He’s pretty much taken over as the everyday shortstop for Philadelphia since Trea Turner (hamstring) went down back on May 3, starting eight of nine games. In that span, Sosa has gone 8-for-24 with two doubles, two triples, five RBI, eight runs and two steals.
For those looking to fill the void left by Turner – who is expected to be out until at least mid-June – his actual replacement may look like a viable fantasy replacement. Sosa currently sports a .311/.415/.533 overall slash line across 45 plate appearances on the campaign. However, that output isn’t likely to hold up, as he has recorded a ridiculous .464 BABIP despite just a 30.0 HardHit% and 85.0 mph EV. Sosa is also swinging and missing a lot. His 29.6 K%, 16.2 SwStr% and 69.4 Contact% are an alarming combination.
Luis Gil turned in a third straight strong performance for the Yankees this past Sunday. The rookie right-hander fired six shutout frames at Tampa Bay, limiting the Rays to only three hits and two walks while striking out three. Gil has now surrendered just one run across 18 1/3 innings this month, giving him an excellent 2.51 ERA over eight starts for the season. His 27.4 K% is also quite nice.
So, where’s the problem? The place to start is Gil’s league-high 26 free passes, which he’s issued at a 14.9% clip. No other qualifying starter in the league is within 2.5% points of that walk rate. He’s been able to limit homers (0.63 HR/9) and hits overall (.142 AVG) to work around the walks so far, but no pitcher can make a .186 BABIP last. Gil’s 7.1 HR/FB% also figures to rise, especially with more innings at Yankee Stadium.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros. He has been an analyst in the fantasy sports industry for the past decade, covering the NFL and MLB. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.
