Fantasy Baseball by the Numbers: Joey Gallo, Riley Greene, Elly De La Cruz

Welcome back to fantasy baseball by the numbers! Where to start, where to start. A few good options:

• Matt Waldron (SP – SD) is bringing back the knuckleball, and I am on board for it.
• Elly De La Cruz (SS – CIN) is a superstar.
• Alec Bohm (3B – PHI) is carrying a red-hot Phillies team.
• Mookie Betts (OF – LAD) leads baseball in both OBP and Slugging.
• Shota Imanaga (SP – CHC) is the second coming of Fernando Valenzuela.
• Tanner Houck (SP – BOS) leads all pitchers in WAR.

But I want to go in a different direction than “Wow, look at these top performers.” I want to switch it up and do my own thing. Not switch it up like switching families as two Yankees did with each other in the 60s, but sort of switch it up.

We are a month in. What are the surprising stats?

We all know Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani (DH – LAD) and Gunnar Henderson (SS – BAL) are superstars, but it’s time to start paying attention to some high performers that are sticking around.

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Fantasy Baseball by the Numbers

Let’s take a look at some notable numbers around fantasy baseball.

Top 10 Strikeout per 9 Innings With at Least 30 Innings Pitched:

1. Jack Flaherty (SP – DET)
2. Garrett Crochet (SP – CHW)
3. Freddy Peralta (SP – MIL)
4. Cole Ragans (SP – KC)
5. Jared Jones (SP – PIT)
6. Tyler Glasnow (SP – LAD)
7. Zach Wheeler (SP – PHI)
8. MacKenzie Gore (SP – WAS)
9. Hunter Greene (SP – CIN)
10. Dane Dunning (SP – TEX)

It’s random, but Jared Jones was born in 2001. Justin Verlander (SP – HOU) pitched this week and he was drafted in 2004. Time is moving quickly.

Jack Flaherty has a 2.18 FIP, 12.5 K’s per 9 and a 10 K/BB walk ratio. What year is it? If a fantasy analyst predicted this line from Flaherty, they would have been mocked and belittled similarly to how I am as I go jogging in my neighborhood. They are called running shorts, Janice, just go back inside your house.

Conversely, I was curious about which batter had the highest K percentage, and unsurprisingly, it’s Joey Gallo (OF – WAS) again. He has a 47.3% K rate, a 17% walk rate and a .122 batting average. Those numbers are truly mind-boggling. That means in almost seven out of 10 plate appearances, the ball does not get put into play. And it’s not even like he’s swinging hard! He has a .214 BABIP, which is abysmal.

Still, it’s hard to knock Gallo. He threw a no-hitter in high school and then took Greg Maddux’s daughter to prom the same day. That buys at least a seven-year MLB career by itself.

Moving on.

Quick Comparison:

• Alec Bohm (3B – PHI): 4 home runs, 30 RBIs, .411 BABIP
• Mike Trout (OF – LAA): 10 home runs, 14 RBIs, .194 BABIP

There have to be base runners to get RBIs. And with Mike Trout out for a while, it seems like he can’t catch any breaks. The twilight of his career is starting to look a lot like Ken Griffey Jr’s.

Guess the Missing Name

• _____________: 17.8% BB rate
• Juan Soto (OF – NYY): 17.4% BB rate
• Mookie Betts (OF – LAD): 17.2% BB rate

I’m going to assume you were wrong.

It’s Riley Greene (OF – DET)

This Detroit Tigers team will surprise many people this year; they’re the real deal.

For all those who cheated and pulled up BB rates to get the answer, well done. I applaud your focused commitment to absolute perfection. Now keep scrolling down, keep scrolling down, keep scrolling down, and there it is, the 11th lowest BB% in baseball.

Jose Ramirez (3B – CLE): 4.0%

If it were me, I’d be looking to move Ramirez. But admittingly, he is traditionally a second-half producer, so maybe target him. I don’t know, it’s your team; stop relying on me for everything. All I know is that the BB rate is concerning.

Do you know what else is concerning? When a top-50 fantasy player is also demonstrably the worst fielder across any position.

Luis Arraez (2B – MIA), get your stuff together. How can someone be the worst defender at second base?

He’s another player I’d be looking to move if I could. His strikeout numbers (8%) are nowhere near last year’s, and he is no longer a statistical anomaly with his low strikeout rate.

Mind Wandering Hour

Name all the pitchers with > 30 IPs with zero home runs given up:

• Tanner Houck

Which pitchers have a > 90% LOB rate, indicating they’ve gotten lucky, and this will normalize throughout the season (unless they are 2023 Blake Snell):

• Jose Berrios (SP – TOR): 96.6%
• Ranger Suarez (SP – PHI): 92.1%
• Logan Gilbert (SP – SEA): 92.0%
• Reynaldo Lopez (SP – ATL): 91.9%
• Bryce Miller (SP – SEA): 91.9%
• Erick Fedde (SP – CHW): 91.2%
• Jared Jones (SP – PIT): 90.1%

Through one month of the season, there have only been 14 batter pitch clock violations across all of baseball.

Meanwhile, there have been three pitcher pitch clock violations and a disengagement violation against just Jarren Duran this year.

Meanwhile, Elly De La Cruz and his 38% HR-to-Fly Ball Ratio are not normal. Almost four out of 10 balls he puts into the air leave the park and he seems to be trying to strike out less. He is primed for a huge breakout year.

That’s all today, next week I will be presenting my dissertation on why anyone who opts to bat Edouard Julien (2B – MIN) or Kyle Schwarber (OF – PHI) lead off in an MLB game needs to lose their jobs.

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