This is not a sleepers article. This article is about finding rookie value picks in your Superflex and/or TE-premium dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts that can be found in pockets all over the draft board, including the first round. You can attain that value in several ways, especially by knowing players’ average draft position (ADP) and drafting using tiers – i.e., if you like players generally equally, taking the cheapest one while adding assets can often be advantageous.
When thinking about who is a rookie value pick, we can base that on our assessment of how well the player will produce fantasy points and how quickly he does. We must also consider what the player will be worth as a dynasty rookie draft pick asset by August or this time next year. Those two results are, of course, linked, but are not the same thing.
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Dynasty Rookie Draft Values
Furthermore, diversification of your dynasty portfolios is important, and taking what the market gives you on some players is a great way to mix in those assets when you might not have otherwise.
Let’s dive into where we can find dynasty rookie draft value picks after the first wave of rookie drafts has told us a story about how the market is operating. Each player’s name, position and team is followed by their FantasyPros rookie expert consensus ranking (ECR) for PPR Superflex leagues.
Early-Round Dynasty Rookie Draft Values
Value picks can be found anywhere in the draft where we see the relationship between outcomes and price be advantageous to us. That includes the first round and surely includes quarterbacks in Superflex leagues.
Drake Maye (QB – NE) | ECR: 6
Drake Maye has flaws and the New England landing spot is less than ideal. This has depressed his value in some managers’ minds. He is sliding behind not only Jayden Daniels but also often J.J. McCarthy in rookie drafts. Firm player stances at quarterback can be dangerous. Given Maye’s ceiling, such stances on Daniels and McCarthy seem overconfident and misplaced. That could be an inefficiency to exploit.
Maye is very talented and has tremendous upside. As a quarterback taken early in the first round of the NFL Draft, he is part of an asset class that retains value even after a bad rookie season. He will benefit from sitting behind veteran Jacoby Brissett, who is familiar with the Kevin Stefanski-Drew Petzing system new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt will be running in New England. Brissett can also help young wide receivers like second-year slot man DeMario Douglas, deep threat Tyquan Thornton and rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker develop so Maye can walk into a better situation once he does start. There do not seem to be many outcomes in which Maye’s value decreases by this time next year.
Given that the 1.01-1.08 range represents a mega-tier of roughly equal assets, Maye is sliding toward the back of that tier. Given the bust potential of all rookie quarterbacks, trading back within that tier to take the cheapest one and scoop up extra pieces makes sense. In some cases, even trading up to the end of the tier, since the market has decided there may be a soft tier break at 1.04, could be less expensive than a couple of weeks ago.
Bo Nix (QB – DEN) | ECR: 13
If Maye’s value is tied to his high ceiling, Bo Nix’s is tied to his high floor or at least his high median outcome. His roller coaster of a college career ended at pick 12 overall in the NFL Draft in an offense for which he is well-suited. In remaking the Broncos in his image, Sean Payton got his “point guard” and “distributor” quarterback in Nix.
Largely due to the experience gained from his long college career, Nix arrives in the NFL already loaded with what rookie quarterbacks struggle with the most: Processing, sack evasion, knowing when to throw the ball away and accuracy. He will throw a good amount of high-percentage passes, is likely underrated as a deeper passer and is joined by college teammate Troy Franklin, who caught a lot of those deeper passes.
Suppose Franklin’s rookie draft ADP among players with higher draft capital reflects the market’s faith in the talent and/or situation. In that case, we might think the market would have greater faith in Nix, especially because of the value retention in a Superflex league. Even if all Nix becomes is a very solid QB3 in Superflex to use because of injuries and bye weeks, which seems likely, he is valuable to us by way of either fantasy points or trade value. We can take a shot at that outcome with a late first-round pick in a few drafts rather than only spending it on players whose positional value could be far lower.
Tight Ends Not Named Brock Bowers
The narrative of the 2024 tight end rookie class has been “It’s Brock Bowers and everyone else.” While that narrative is true, it seems to be overemphasized in early rookie drafts, even in TE-premium leagues. Popular prospect Ben Sinnott sometimes slides into the third round, and Ja’Tavion Sanders is consistently available then. Other targets like Theo Johnson, Jared Wiley and Erick All can even go undrafted in four-round drafts. If you are in TE-premium leagues, it is highly advisable to acquire shares of various cheap rookie tight ends and stash them. This is sometimes called the “buckshot” approach or “spray and pray.”
Sinnott is an athletic and versatile player with second-round draft capital on an ascending offense in Washington with a rookie quarterback who will need some layups. He only has to compete with a thus far unimpressive Cole Turner and late-career Zach Ertz. Sanders’ athletic testing was below expectations, but he is a proven pass-catcher who can immediately be Carolina’s No. 1 TE and provide layup targets for Bryce Young while both develop their respective professional games.
Johnson needs some refinement but has the high-end athleticism that positively correlates to fantasy production at the position, and while Daniel Bellinger is underrated, he is not formidable competition. Wiley has drawn praise for his receiving acumen and also tested well athletically. The Chiefs’ tight end corps includes Noah Gray and Irv Smith Jr. among other players all slotted below Travis Kelce on the depth chart. Wiley’s current price for a talented, plausible successor to Kelce is very affordable. All has a history of significant injuries, but also has very good upside as a receiver and got a tantalizing landing spot in Cincinnati.
Now that the first wave of dynasty rookie drafts has given us a more precise sense of the market, we can use that information to find current pockets of value. This can benefit our fantasy teams in 2024, add trade value to our rosters and help us accrue additional assets while diversifying our portfolios. Happy hunting.
More Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice
Expert Must-Have Rookies (Premium)
DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
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