We can talk about value. We can discuss process. We can also debate dynasty team building for days in the FantasyPros discord, but sometimes…it’s imperative to throw caution to the wind. To say screw it! To put your money where your mouth is (ok, that sounds weird when you say it out loud) and DRAFT THE PLAYERS YOU BELIEVE IN! Here are “my guys.”
My must-have, must-draft dynasty rookies in this class.
DBro’s Top 10 Dynasty Rookie Draft Targets
This landing spot was the fever dream for Daniels’ stans like me (outside of possibly going to MIN).
Daniels will be a perfect fit for what Kliff Kingsbury wants to do on offense. At the height of Kyler Murray‘s powers under Kliff Kingsbury (2020-2021), the offense was built around deep passing and play-action. In 2021, Murray ranked fifth in deep ball rate (per PFF). In 2020-2021, he was tenth and 11th in play-action dropback rate.
Daniels excels at both play-action and chucking it deep. Last year, he led all collegiate passers in deep PFF passing grade and deep adjusted completion rate (per PFF) while ranking fourth in PFF passing grade and third in yards per attempt on play-action dropbacks. Add in Daniels’ rushing upside, and he should not escape the top three picks in Superflex rookie drafts, and he has a strong case to be in the 1.01 conversation with Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Malik Nabers. Daniels should be the first quarterback off the board in 1QB formats because of his rushing ability.
OH BABY! It happened. McCarthy to Minnesota. Someone pinch me. I must be dreaming. The Vikings got their stud franchise quarterback, and we should all rejoice. McCarthy’s haters don’t want to see it because he will bury all the bad takes and lazy slander that was tossed at him during the process.
Last year, after Kirk Cousins was lost to injury, we got a wonderful look at how good of a play-caller Kevin O’Connell is with Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens under center. In the eight games these two signal callers played at least 70% of the offensive snaps, they finished as the QB11 or higher in weekly fantasy scoring 63% of the time. That would have been the sixth-highest QB1 scoring rate in fantasy last year.
McCarthy has underrated wheels (the sixth-best three-cone time among all prospects that tested at the combine). O’Connell will utilize McCarthy’s legs, which will help pad his weekly ceiling and floor once he is the starting quarterback in Minny. Sam Darnold could draw a few starts to open the season, so there could be a nice buy-low window after your rookie draft to take advantage of. McCarthy was my QB2 pre-draft, and he remains my QB2 post-draft. McCarthy should be gone by the 1.07 or 1.08 pick in Superflex rookie drafts. In 1QB formats, look for him to be gone in the back half of the first round. If he falls past 1.09/1.10, it’s time to trade up and pounce.
Brooks had the purest run out with landing spot and draft capital. Carolina invested a second-round pick in their future bellcow. I’m not saying that Brooks explodes out of the gate with every down usage, but he will ascend to that role if not by the end of the 2024 season, definitely in 2025.
Last year in Tampa Bay, under Dave Canales’ watchful eye as the offensive coordinator, Rachaad White ranked seventh among running backs in opportunity share (75.3%). In the previous season, when Canales was still with Seattle as the team’s quarterbacks coach, he watched from the sidelines as Kenneth Walker ranked 13th in opportunity share (65.3%).
Miles Sanders and Chuba Hubbard are on the roster this season in Carolina to help the team ease Brooks in, but both players are likely out the door in 2025. Sanders can be cut with only a $2.9 million dead cap hit for the team to absorb. Hubbard is a free agent in 2025. Brooks should be gone no later than the 1.11 in any dynasty format. Everyone crapped on this running back class, but we are getting a bell cow out of it. Be happy. Rejoice.
Let me start this conversation by stating that this landing spot will make Lloyd a screaming value in dynasty rookie drafts. “Oh, but aren’t you worried about Josh Jacobs and his brand spanking new four-year and 48 million dollar deal?” Is it concerning? Sure. Is it frightening and a reason to fade Lloyd? No. Lloyd is not my RB1 in this class anymore, but he has only fallen to RB2 in this class and should be selected as an early second-round pick in rookie drafts in all formats.
The fear of Jacobs is being overblown. First, let’s tackle this “monster” contract he received from Green Bay. This four-year deal is really just a puffed-up one-year deal. Green Bay can get out of his contract after the 2024 season if he doesn’t bounce back to his previous form. Now, they would incur a 9.3 million dead cap hit if they did, but in 2025, they have the 14th-most cap space.
To put it kindly, Jacobs struggled mightily last year. Among 49 qualifying backs last season (per Fantasy Points Data), Jacobs ranked 41st in explosive run rate, 37th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 44th in yards after contact per attempt. A hopeful love letter detailing Jacobs’ bounce back should be written in pencil. LaFleur also, in the above video clip, was discussing Lloyd and alluding to his pass game upside, which he flashed consistently at the Senior Bowl. Lloyd should ascend to the RB2/1B role for Green Bay in short order, with the upside to take over fully in 2025.
The small school volume back sadly fell all the way to the sixth round of the NFL Draft, but he landed in one of the juiciest spots available to a rookie running back. J.K. Dobbins was brought in on a one-year deal with no guaranteed money. Gus Edwards got a three-year pact that essentially is a one-year contract, as the team could move on from him after 2024 with a little penalty if they wanted to. Vidal has proven his ability to handle the load in college and could easily do so again in the NFL. Vidal will drop into the third round of every rookie draft. If you want heavy exposure to him in dynasty (you should), it won’t be hard. If you can get into the early/middle of the third round of rookie drafts, you should be able to acquire his services for your dynasty team.
Pearsall shocked many by making it into the first round of the NFL Draft, but if you turned on his film and peered at his deeper analytical profile, it shouldn’t be shocking at all. Pearsall is one of the best route runners in this class, and he’s a DAWG at the catch point with some of the sickest highlight reel moments in college football.
While he didn’t stuff the box scores last year, his analytical profile is bonkers. In his final season at Florida, he was in the 89th percentile in receiving grade, 91st percentile in receiving grade versus single coverage, 90th percentile in separation percentage, and 81st percentile in separation percentage against single coverage (per PFF). Brandon Aiyuk is an unrestricted free agent after this year, so while the road looks blocked for Pearsall right now, that could change quickly, especially if the team does move him in a trade before the 2024 season. Also, don’t rule out Deebo Samuel getting moved before Week 1. Either outcome would send the dynasty community into a frenzy as they clamor for Pearsall’s services. I’m trying to trade into every rookie draft to select him.
Off-the-field and locker-room concerns caused Burton to fall into the Bengals’ laps in the third round of the NFL Draft, but he won’t fall that far in any rookie draft I’m in.
Burton’s another easy case where the box score numbers don’t match the film or the deeper analytics. During his final season at Alabama, he was in the 100th percentile in receiving grade while also finishing in the 90th percentile in receiving grade against single coverage and in the 77th percentile in separation percentage (per PFF). Don’t rule out Tee Higgins getting moved before Week 1, but even if he stays on the roster for the 2024 season, he will likely be gone after this year. Burton is already locked into three wide receiver sets and will contend to be the WR3 in the target tree. If (or when) Higgins moves on, Burton’s standing will only improve. Burton is a strong second-round pick in rookie drafts and will be one of my highest-rostered players across my dynasty portfolio.
Baker is one of “MY GUYS” in this draft class. I’ll be drafting him as much as possible, as he could easily be the WR1 for the New England Patriots by the end of the season. While I would have loved for him to get drafted on Day 2 of the NFL Draft, it was always a distinct possibility that he would fall to early Day 3.
The small school production and the good-but-not-amazing athletic testing helped to push his draft stock lower than it should have been. With Kendrick Bourne starting on the outside this year and Ja’Lynn Polk likely taking over slot duties, Baker should be able to push for starting reps against JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton. He should be gone by the end of the second round of every rookie draft. If he’s not, and we are in a league together, expect a knock at your door.
How many boxes must Ben Sinnott check for the dynasty community to WAKE UP and love him as much as I do? An easy path to playing time? Check. Zach Ertz is all that stands in his way from being an every-down tight end immediately. Mouth-watering draft capital for a tight end? Sinnott was selected in the second round of the NFL Draft. Marvelous analytical profile? In his final season in college, not only did he rank ninth in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade, but he was also fourth in missed tackles forced and 15th in yards per route run against man coverage among FBS tight ends (per PFF). High-end athleticism? Sure thing. Sinnott has an 81st percentile 10-yard split, a 97th percentile vertical jump, a 94th percentile broad jump, a 96th percentile three-cone drill, and an 81st percentile 20-yard shuttle time.
Sinnott continues to be disrespected in rookie drafts. I will DRAFT HIM EVERYWHERE! He should be gone by the end of the second round of rookie drafts, and yet I continue to see him drop into the third round.
The Bengals smashed this draft class and selected another one of my man crushes of this draft class with Erick All. Consider me ALL IN on All (ok, I’ll see myself out after that dad joke).
Let’s get this out of the way. No, I’m not worried about his injury history. The back injury that led to the premature ending of his 2022 season was proven to be in the rearview after he started crushing souls in 2023 without issues. His 2023 season was cut short due to a torn ACL, which is the only injury recovery that concerns me, but hey, I’m an ardent believer in modern medicine and science. All should make a complete recovery from that injury as well.
So, what’s left to debate here? Landing spot? Ok, he’s tied to Joe Burrow, with only Mike Gesicki above him on the depth chart for receiving work. Draft capital? He was selected in the fourth round of the NFL Draft despite his final season being cut short and All being unable to athletically test, which, by the way, his film more than confirms he is PLENTY athletic. Analytical profile? All has ranked in the top 10 in yards per route run in each of the last two collegiate seasons in which he was healthy enough to garner at least 20 targets (per PFF). Oh, also, he ranked first in yards per route run and eighth in PFF receiving grade against man coverage (among all tight ends last year with at least ten man coverage targets).
All is a wondrous gift that the dynasty community is giving you this year by letting him slip in drafts. SMASH THE DRAFT BUTTON in the late second round or early third round of rookie drafts if he’s there (he will be).
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