Tom Strachan | Fri, May 17th 2024, 7:11am EDT

6 Best Ball ADP Inefficiencies (2024 Fantasy Football)

Best ball contests are launching every week and the offseason refuses to slow down. With drafts happening thick and fast there is a constant shifting of best ball average draft position (ADP), some of it more efficient than others. In this article, we’ll dive into the biggest inefficiencies when contrasting Underdog Fantasy Best Ball ADP with our expert consensus rankings (ECR).

Best Ball ADP Inefficiencies

Antonio Gibson (RB – NE) | 170 ADP vs. 148.1 ECR

The Patriots moved on from Ezekiel Elliott after he set career lows in success rate in 2023 (45%) and failed to break a single rush longer than 17 yards on 184 attempts. They brought in a much younger player as their RB2 in Antonio Gibson. 2023 wasn’t incredible for Gibson with only 12.1 rush attempts per game, but he set career highs in rushing yards after contact per attempt (3.51), yards per attempt (4.7) and success rate (51%). In general, drafters are down on this backfield with Rhamondre Stevenson being drafted in the middle of the seventh round, a year after he was expected to be a workhorse. At this point, you either believe Stevenson is massively undervalued in drafts, or you naturally fall on the side that Stevenson likely doesn’t get all the work and we might want his backup.

James Conner (RB – ARI) | 92.8 ADP vs. 76.2 ECR

It’s true James Conner has played in 13 games in consecutive years and that he’s hit the part of his career where it’s hard to ignore the fact he’s 29 years old, but it’s also hard to ignore that when he’s on the field he’s a very productive running back. In five of Conner’s 12 fantasy-relevant games last year he finished as a top-12 running back and he finished inside the top 36 in four more. Finishing as a top-36 running back in 75% of performances is a decent return for a player you can currently draft as the RB27. Currently, the ECR is over 15 spots ahead of ADP, so keep scooping Conner until the rest of your draftroom gets wise.

Dak Prescott (QB – DAL) | 85.6 ADP vs. 71.1 ECR

From Weeks 9-17 in 2023, Dak Prescott was the QB2 with 22.9 points per game, 0.1 behind QB1 Josh Allen. Since then, the Cowboys have downgraded at running back to a duo of Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott, who, as mentioned earlier, is coming off career lows in numerous stats. While the running game looks set to regress, or at the very least not improve, the passing game should be as good as last year with CeeDee Lamb becoming a true superstar. Prescott is viewed as struggling to challenge the likes of Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen because of a lack of rushing threat, but he makes up for it by being efficient and being part of a great offense. Last year, despite not having a rushing upside, Prescott had six games over 24.7 points, which were all good for top-three weekly finishes. As long as Prescott is paired with Lamb, we should be very interested in the pair of them.

Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL) | 42.4 ADP vs. 34.7 ECR

Another quarterback whose ADP is lower than the ECR is Lamar Jackson, who won people best ball tournaments aplenty in 2023 when he finished as the QB1 in Week 17 with 36.3 points in the Ravens’ demolition of the Miami Dolphins. Jackson has frustrated some fantasy managers in recent years by being used less around the goal line or for missing time with injuries. When it comes to best ball we have to apply the lens of ‘who can win you a tournament with a massive individual performance. Jackson has always been able to do that. He passed for a career-high 3,678 passing yards and a career-high 8.0 passing yards per attempt. With another offseason to get used to Todd Monken’s offense and a healthy Mark Andrews returning, Jackson has the potential to be the QB1 overall in 2024.

TJ Hockenson (TE – MIN) | 115.2 ADP vs. 135.6 ECR

Since drafts opened, T.J. Hockenson‘s ADP has steadily dropped from around pick 100 to 125.9 and then risen to 115.2. If anything, Hockenson’s ADP should have continued to fall, not rise, regardless of whether he got a reasonable quarterback in rookie J.J. McCarthy. It’s impossible to ignore that Hockenson is coming off a torn ACL and MCL knee injury, suffered in Week 16. The most optimistic scenarios expect Hockenson to be back on the field around Week 6, at which point Hockenson will be expected to get up to speed with a new quarterback. By the time Hockenson is healthy he could be, at best, the third option behind Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Unless we hear positive news about Hockenson, he’s best left alone unless his ADP gets to around 150, which it likely will as we get to the summer months and he lands on the camp PUP (physically unable to perform) list.

Troy Franklin (WR – DEN) | 155.1 ADP vs. 178.7 ECR

The ECR ranks Troy Franklin at pick 178.7 on average, 23 picks behind his current best ball ADP. Occasionally, rankings don’t take into account the clamor for wide receivers that takes place on Underdog. Franklin was a boom-or-bust type prospect out of a smaller school than many of the top wide receivers in this draft. There were plenty of question marks over his range of route running coming out of college. With that said, Franklin will have an immediate rapport with Bo Nix, who Franklin followed to the Broncos. Everything the Broncos have put out suggests they were very high on him as a player. If Franklin can come close to the 1,383 yards and 14 touchdowns he recorded in 2023 at Oregon he’ll be one of the steals of draft season. At this cost, we can deal with him having as few as two big blow-up weeks.

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