Hello Friends,
Silence TwoWood here. You may recognize me from absolutely nowhere unless you’re deeply entrenched in the glamorous world of mid-stakes fantasy golf pools. Or as the guy who eventually got sued for using Jim Nantz’ catchphrase as an intro to this article. I’m here today to outline my strategy for one of the most popular tournaments in the fantasy golf industry, the Albatross majors best ball contest on Underdog Fantasy. Quick contest overview below, complete set of rules here:
- $10 entry
- $500K prizepool, $50K to 1st place
- 10-round, 6-player snake drafts that can be done on Slow (Formerly 8 hours between picks but now 4 hours as the Masters gets closer) or Fast (30 seconds between picks).
- You can enter a max of 150 times
Enter the Underdog PGA Albatross for your shot at $50,000
Before I get into my specific player takes and exposures, there are some more general notes and strategies that are worth covering that will give you an immediate leg up on those who are blindly clicking buttons to kill time during their kids’ t-ball practice.
- Target golfers who are qualified for all four majors
It sounds obvious, but I routinely see players being drafted that aren’t even qualified for multiple major tournaments this season, which is going to make it tough to score points in a contest centered around exclusively those major tournaments. There are a couple good (free) resources for checking which players are qualified:
This article on the PGA Tour site from the very thorough fantasy golf OG Rob Bolton: https://www.pgatour.com/article/news/golfbet/major-qualifiers
The Official World Golf Rankings site, which is important because as a general rule of thumb, if a player is listed in the Top 50 of the OWGR they will be at every major: https://www.owgr.com/current-world-ranking
- Scoring is not cumulative
Starting with the Masters, each of the first three majors is an elimination round where only 1-2 teams in each group will move on to the next round. This is important because if you try to “backload” your roster with guys you think will perform well at the Open Championship (the last major of the year where the contest Finals take place), you may leave yourself too light for the earlier rounds and never have a chance to even get to the Finals. That’s not to say you should draft only guys you think will perform well at the Masters, but you shouldn’t draft a team that doesn’t have at least 9 (or ideally all 10) golfers at Augusta. Worth noting that there are immediate payouts for advancing past each round as well, so while ultimately you should be playing to win the whole tournament, it’s nice to see money flowing back into your account as you advance.
- Know where the majors are being played this year
Masters – Duh
PGA Championship – Valhalla
US Open – Pinehurst
Open Championship (“British Open”) – Royal Troon
While not super critical to the draft strategy, some relevant notes based on the venues listed above:
Valhalla – Hosted the 2014 PGA Championship, the site of Rory McIlroy’s last major victory which feels insane to type but is very much a fact. The runner up? In my opinion easily the best last-round pick in this contest, we’ll get there soon. Course is in Kentucky which I’m telling myself is a home game for Justin Thomas, winner of two PGA Championships already.
Pinehurst – Also a 2014 major host for the US Open where Martin Kaymer famously putted every chance he had around the green en route to a dominating 8-shot victory. Runner-up finish for Rickie Fowler who also finished 3rd at Valhalla that year (wide eyeballs emoji).
Royal Troon – Hosted the 2016 Open Championship, the site of what in my opinion (probably not a hot take) was one of the greatest final rounds in major championship history, with Henrik Stenson outdeuling that runner-up from 2014 Valhalla and everyone else fighting for 3rd.
Like I cautioned, you probably don’t want to build your draft strategy around performance from tournaments 8-10 years ago, but having prior experience at these venues can certainly help and can be weighed in tiebreakers.
OK, so now that we’ve covered general format and strategy, I’m going to discuss my highest and lowest owned golfers and then cover a handful of others I think are interesting to outline. I’m writing this article having completed 100 drafts thus far and will fire the remaining 50 entries mostly this week so I leave room for every other pool/fantasy contest under the sun during Masters week. And in case you’re curious, the overwhelming majority of my drafts have been Slow drafts due to having two young kids, a job, sleep, etc., and I started entering them a few days after the contest opened in I believe late January. I probably don’t have a big enough sample to accurately assess each, but in my experience the Slow and Fast drafts are pretty much the same, people are mostly just staying true to the Underdog ADP.
Lowest Owned Golfers
This is only of whom I would deem to be relevant, draftable golfers, obviously I own 0% of players who aren’t qualified for multiple majors or who stink (relatively speaking).
Sungjae Im – 2%
Usually a model of consistency, Sungjae’s lost strokes to the field on approach in 8 of his last 9 events and has only one top 20 finish since the season opening event in Hawaii. He’ll probably figure it out at some point, but right now he just seems broken.
Tyrrell Hatton – 2%
34 career majors, 5 top tens with his best finish a T5. I do think he’s a better golfer now than he’s ever been, but a combination of that poor majors performance, a relatively high ADP, and the fact that when I started drafting he wasn’t even a lock to be at all four majors (he is now) has me very light on Hatton.
Patrick Cantlay – 1%
That’s right, I’ve taken Patrick Cantlay in exactly 1 of my 100 completed drafts thus far. Is it because I can’t watch him shuffle his feet 47 times before he hits a putt? Honestly, probably at least a little bit. But this is strictly about a combination of ADP and historical performance in majors. For most of draft season he’s been going in the same range as guys like Brooks Koepka, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, etc., and I can’t in good conscience draft him over any of those guys. He’s played 27 majors lifetime and has 4 top tens. I wouldn’t consider him until the beginning of Round 3 and he’s almost always gone by then.
Highest Owned Golfers
Keep in mind that there are a number of different factors that go into these exposure percentages and doesn’t mean the guys listed below are my favorite overall plays in the contest, most of this is ADP/value driven..
#3 Harris English – 44%
Likely to be at all four majors? At #40 in the world and climbing, check. In good form? Hasn’t missed a cut in 8 events this year and has six top-21 finishes across those 8 events. Good performance in majors? 21/27 cuts lifetime with top tens in 3 of the last 4 US Opens, meaning Harris English teams in Round 3 could really pop. Reasonably priced? Can often be had in the 7th round. Also doesn’t hurt for a guy who spent his entire pre-PGA Tour life in Georgia that three of the four majors this year are being contested in the Southeastern US. Giddy up.
#2 Phil Mickelson – 47%
2014 Valhalla runner-up and the “loser” of the incredible 2016 Sunday duel at Royal Troon, Phil checks WAY too many boxes to not be the default last round pick in this contest. Working against Phil are his age and that most PGA Tour loyalists, of which I am not and only care about if you can make me money playing golf, hate him with the fire of 1,000 suns. Working in his favor:
- He’s free – he’s going undrafted in some of these drafts!
- He almost won the Masters just last year and oh yeah won a freaking major just three years ago (which qualifies him for every major this year)
- By all accounts is still grinding and working on his game
- As mentioned previously, has popped previously at this year’s majors venues
- Did I mention he’s literally free? Click “Draft” next to his name in the 10th round and sleep well knowing you did the right thing.
#1 Cam Young – 62%
Is that too much Cam Young? I don’t know, maybe, but for a guy with a 40% career Top 10 rate at majors (admittedly small sample) who almost won two of them and who has shown extremely strong form this season I cannot fade him where he’s being drafted. Often times at the back half of the 4th/early 5th round you’ll have a choice between guys like Sam Burns, Sungjae Im, Bryson, Sahith, etc. and while I do like a couple of those guys, I’ve obviously been leaning Cam Young in the majority of those situations. The way he dominates tee-to-green often keeps him a factor at these tougher courses and he’s exactly the type of floor/ceiling combo I’m looking for in the middle rounds, if he burns me I can live with it.
Others of Note
Ryan Fox – 37%
I’ve started to cool on Fox in recent drafts as he’s struggled through most of this PGA Tour season, but he’s the option I’ve most chosen in the last round if Phil is gone. He made the cut in all four majors last year which is more than you can say for a lot of other options this late. Lucas Glover would be my next preferred choice.
Will Zalatoris – 36%
This one is important because if you were one of the lucky ones drafting in this contest back in Jan/Feb, you could get major killer Will Zalatoris in the 6th or even 7th round when there was still uncertainty around his back injury. Now his ADP is around 9th pick overall (which is probably a bit high), so the vast majority of my ownership comes from those early drafts where I took a shot at him being healthy. While he hasn’t played great of late, the back doesn’t seem to be an issue and I’d expect some of the best teams in this entire field are ones drafted early with Will Z as their 6/7 pick.
Rickie Fowler – 30%
As I mentioned in the major venues paragraph, Rickie finished top 3 at both Valhalla and Pinehust in 2014 and has been pretty damn good at majors throughout his career. The problem is he has been pretty damn bad this season and although his putter is finally heating up, his ball striking has now left him. He typically goes in Round 7 so doesn’t cost you much and recent form aside I’m still fine being overweight to the field here.
Dustin Johnson – 27%
Call it a hunch, a lean on his overall pedigree, whatever, DJ’s the guy I’ve found myself taking most in that mid-round 4 range where Cam Young is either gone or I just don’t feel like clicking Cam Young again.
Joaquin Niemann – 4%
Given his superb recent play his ADP has skyrocketed into the late 2nd/early 3rd round where I’m not sure he’s all that attractive a pick over guys like Cam Smith, Matt Fitzpatrick, etc. This one was tricky because early on when he was affordable in the 6th round or even later, his path to playing in the majors this year was unclear. Then he gets a special invite to both the Masters and PGA Championship and suddenly becomes a screaming value. I simply missed the boat.
Tiger Woods – 0%
I told you I wasn’t drafting guys who stink. Kidding aside, he hasn’t shown the ability to physically play four consecutive rounds in a very long time but if you wanna have some fun and roster your golfing hero by all means fire away in Round 10.
What to do at Pick #2?
To no surprise, Scottie Scheffler goes first in almost every single draft, which leaves the decision at 2 between Rahm and Rory (or Brooks/Xander if you’re looking to go a bit off schedule, personally I’m not). Most of the time the field is going Rahm, and 100% of the time I’m going Rahm. Not only do I think he’s just a better player right now, this really isn’t quantifiable but if anyone is motivated by the “They don’t think I’m good anymore just because I switched tours” narrative, it seems like it’d be that guy. My favorite draft starts are when #2 goes Rory and I get Rahm at 3.
Congrats and thank you if you read all the way to here, and good luck in the Majors Best Ball streets this season. Go Cam Young, go us.