NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings & FanDuel Tuesday (4/30)

We have three Eastern Conference games to dissect on this Tuesday card! Two of them are elimination games, while the Orlando-Cleveland series looks poised for seven games. Milwaukee and Philly are both projected to get knocked out here. Who thought we would say that before May? That’s what’s crazy about the NBA Playoffs, so let’s go ahead and dive into this Tuesday card!

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer:

Schedule and Odds

• IND at MIL (IND -3.5) O/U: 215.5
• ORL at CLE (CLE -4.5) O/U: 200.5
• PHI at NYK (NYK -3.5) O/U: 204

Check out our consensus game odds and the odds from each sportsbook at BettingPros.

Injury Report

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) Doubtful
• Damian Lillard (Achilles) Doubtful
• Tyrese Haliburton (back) Questionable
• Khris Middleton (ankle) Questionable
• Joel Embiid (knee) Questionable
• Jalen Brunson (toe) Probable
• Patrick Beverley (oblique) Probable
• Mitchell Robinson (ankle) Questionable

Core Plays

Jalen Brunson (PG – NYK): $9,500 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Brunson has been the best player in the postseason thus far, scoring 62 and 71 DraftKings points in his two most recent outings. That’s less surprising when you look at his regular season production, averaging over 50 DK points per game when Julius Randle has been out. This guy is locked into 25-30 shots and 45 minutes a night, and there might not be another player with that type of opportunity.

Jarrett Allen (C – CLE): $7,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
Allen has quietly been one of the most reliable centers over the last month. The big man has scored at least 26 DraftKings points in 18 of his previous 19 games, scoring at least 39 DK points in over half of those. That ability is impossible to overlook, especially since he had a 44-point average at home during that period. Cleveland is clearly a different team at home, and Allen is a significant reason for that home success.

Cash Game Considerations

Joel Embiid (C – PHI): $10,900 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
Embiid was the leading scorer in fantasy before getting injured, and he still has the ability to break a slate. The 2023 MVP averaged over 62 DraftKings points per game during the regular season and has at least 59 DK points in the last three games of this series. We love that since his minutes and usage are on the rise, with Embiid possibly looking at 45 minutes and 30 shots in this elimination game. If he gets that type of role, Embiid could drop 80 fantasy points!

Khris Middleton (SF/PF – MIL): $8,500 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel
With Dame and Giannis both doubtful, Middleton should continue to run the show for the Bucks. That’s what we’ve seen in this series, with Mid scoring at least 45 DraftKings points in three of his last four fixtures. We also saw a 64-point masterpiece in Game 3, and that sort of upside game is definitely in play since he’s guaranteed 20-25 shots, 40 minutes, and a 30 percent usage rate. We also don’t mind that Indiana owns a 20th OPRK against opposing forwards!

GPP Targets

Bobby Portis (PF/C – MIL): $7,600 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
This price is a bit lofty, but the Bucks will have to lean on Portis with their two studs sidelined. We’ve seen BP take over in this role in the past, averaging nearly 40 DraftKings points per game when Antetokounmpo has been out this season. That’s clear when you see that Portis has at least 34 fantasy points in 10 of his last 12 outings, but that could be his floor against Indiana. The Pacers ranked 28th in total defense during the regular season while playing at the fastest pace in the league.

Wendell Carter (C – ORL): $4,300 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel
This is risky with how poorly Carter is playing right now, but it’s bizarre to see him this cheap. The Magic center averaged 25 DK points per game during the regular season and regularly hovered around $6K on both sites. An injury limited him early in this series, but we’re encouraged that he played 24 and 25 minutes in the two most recent outings. This guy can easily provide a fantasy point per minute, and that’s all you need at this price if he’s going to play 25 minutes!

Value Plays

Josh Hart (SG/SF – NYK): $7,500 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
There aren’t many players as reliable as Hart right now. What makes him so consistent is his role, regularly playing 45 minutes a night. He’s actually played 43, 46, and 48 minutes in the last three games of this series, posting a 39-point average across 41 minutes over the final month of the regular season. Good luck finding that from another sub-$8K player, especially in a closeout game.

Brook Lopez (C – MIL): $6,200 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel
Milwaukee will be a popular stack because there’s a ton of usage to go around with the two superstars sidelined. That’s about 60 points, 20 rebounds, 15 assists, and 75 minutes out of the lineup, and Bro-Lo will have to help fill that void. This former All-Star did that in Game 4, scoring 42 DK points across 39 minutes. He also played 39 minutes in Game 3 and needs to be above $7K with this type of opportunity.

Advantageous Pricing

• Jarrett Allen (C – CLE): $7,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
• Joel Embiid (C – PHI): $10,900 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
• Isaiah Hartenstein (PF/C – NYK): $5,700 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel
• OG Anunoby (SG/SF – NYK): $5,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel
• Kelly Oubre Jr.(SF/PF – PHI): $5,300 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel
• Paul Reed (PF/C – PHI): $3,200 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
• Evan Mobley (PF/C – CLE): $6,700 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
• Jonathan Isaac (SF/PF – ORL): $4,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel
• Myles Turner (C – IND): $7,200 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
• Andrew Nembhard (PG/SG – IND): $4,700 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel

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