MLB DFS & Underdog Player Props Picks: Wednesday (4/17)

Today’s MLB DFS main slate features 11 games and starts at 1:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Underdog also offers a buffet of pick ’em options.

• Weekly Trade Value Chart
• Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
• MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Wednesday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Brady Singer (KC) at CWS
Brady Singer is rolling in 2024. According to FanGraphs, in three starts spanning 18.1 innings, Singer has a 0.98 ERA, 3.06 xERA, 2.90 SIERA, 0.76 WHIP, 5.7 BB%, 25.7 K% and a slate-high 32.2 CSW%. The 27-year-old pitcher's pitch modeling is lousy, but the rest of his profile is outstanding.

Singer has a tasty matchup today. This season, the White Sox are 29th in wRC+ (71) against righties. Additionally, only three of their projected starts have had a 100 wRC+ or higher against righties since 2021, and just one has had higher than a 105 wRC+.

The betting info is also ideal. The Royals are -190, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. Singer is the top pitcher on the slate by a narrow margin over the next pitcher.

Bryce Miller (SEA) vs. CIN
Bryce Miller is nipping at Singer's heels for the top pitcher on this slate. This season, in three starts totaling 18.1 innings, Miller has a 1.96 ERA, 3.54 xERA, 4.01 SIERA, 0.98 WHIP, 8.3 BB%, 23.6 K%, 30.9 CSW%, 109 Stuff+, 100 Location+ and 101 Pitching+. Furthermore, in 85.1 innings at home in his career, Miller has had a 3.59 ERA, 4.48 xFIP, 1.10 WHIP, 6.1 BB% and 22.0 K%.

Miller's matchup isn't as favorable as Singer's. Still, the Reds are tied for 16th in wRC+ (98) against righties and have a 27.0 K% in 2024. The Mariners are also -135, and the game's total is 8.0 runs. Miller has a high ceiling, making him an excellent GPP pick.

Luis Severino (NYM) vs. PIT

Luis Severino is off to a rock-solid start after a horrendous campaign in 2023. In three starts spanning 15.0 innings this year, Severino has a 3.00 ERA, 4.40 xERA, 3.65 SIERA, 1.40 WHIP, 8.8 BB%, 25.0 K%, 24.9 CSW%, 104 Stuff+, 105 Location+ and 101 Pitching+. It's not a perfect profile, but Severino has some encouraging marks.

The veteran righty also has a favorable matchup and stellar betting info. The Pirates are 15th in wRC+ (99) against righties this year, and five of their projected starters have had a 100 wRC+ or lower against righties since 2021. Finally, the Mets are -145, and the game's total is 8.0 runs. Thus, Severino is an ideal SP2 at DK in all game types and a useful pick in GPPs at FD.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

• Home (T-Mobile Park)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/SEA -135

Andrew Abbott has a 2.60 ERA in three starts this year. However, the lefty's 3.42 xERA and 4.79 SIERA are much less flattering. Abbott also has a pitiful 15.9 K%, 6.3 SwStr% and 23.3 CSW% this season. The young lefty can come crashing back to earth today against the Mariners. Eight of their projected starters have had at least a 104 wRC+ against southpaws since 2021, six have had at least a 114 wRC+ and three have had at least a 131 wRC+. Seattle is a high-upside stack, and many of their hitters have bargain salaries.

• Road (Rogers Centre)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/NYY -110

In 2023, Kevin Gausman's fastball averaged 94.7 mph. It's down to 93.4 mph this season. A velocity decrease isn't an issue in isolation. However, Gausman's ERA has ballooned to 11.57 this year. Gausman's 10.11 xERA isn't much better. The Yankees can exploit Gausman's diminished velocity and early-season struggles.

Core Studs

• Since 2021, Juan Soto has had a .450 OBP, .252 ISO and 171 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
• Aaron Judge has tallied a .402 OBP, .316 ISO and 178 wRC+ against righties since 2021.
• Anthony Volpe is breaking out this season. In 74 plate appearances in 2024, he has hit two homers and stolen six bases with a .438 OBP, .159 ISO and 182 wRC+.

Value Plays/Punts

• In 68 plate appearances this season, Mitch Haniger has three homers, a .382 OBP, .200 ISO and 162 wRC+. He also has a track record of success against lefties.
• Ty France is an above-average hitter against lefties and has a DFS-friendly lineup spot.
• In 268 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Mitch Garver has hit 12 homers with a .381 OBP, .212 ISO and 140 wRC+.

Wednesday's Top 3 Underdog Fantasy Player Props

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Michael King: 5.5 Strikeouts - Lower

Michael King has a favorable matchup to strike out batters today. Nevertheless, King has struck out six, four and four batters in three starts this season. Additionally, he has only an 8.8 SwStr% and 24.4 O-Swing%. King hasn't pitched well, and his pitch 96 Stuff+ isn't impressive. Therefore, we project him to strike out only 5.33 batters today, putting him under his prop.

Jake Irvin: 5.0 Strikeouts - Lower

LA's projected lineup is stacked, featuring eight hitters with at least a 106 wRC+ against righties since 2021 and six with at least a 126 wRC+. They can rough up Jake Irvin and quickly chase him from the game. Yet, even if he lasts for a few innings, Irvin doesn't have bat-missing stuff. This season, the righty has a 6.9 SwStr% and 25.5 CSW%. Irvin has struck out four, five and five batters in three starts this year despite facing the A's and Reds. Oakland has the second-highest strikeout rate (28.4 K%) against righties this year, and the Reds have the fifth-highest (27.0 K%). Irvin is projected to strike out only 3.93 batters.

Andrew Abbott: 5.5 Strikeouts - Lower

I noted Abbott's pitiful strikeout rate and plate discipline marks above. He's struck out only four, four and three batters in three starts this season. Abbott is unlikely to kick it up a notch against the Mariners. Six of their projected starters have had under a 22.0 K% against lefties since 2021, with three sporting an 18.5 K% or lower.

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.