Today’s MLB DFS main slate is tiny, featuring three games at FanDuel and four at DraftKings. It begins at 4:05 p.m. ET at both providers, but DK includes the 7:40 p.m. game between the White Sox and Royals, and FD doesn’t. The focus is on the 4:05 p.m. ET games and later with the forthcoming suggested Underdog Fantasy picks.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Today’s MLB DFS main slate is tiny, featuring three games at FanDuel and four at DraftKings. It begins at 4:05 p.m. ET at both providers, but DK includes the 7:40 p.m. game between the White Sox and Royals, and FD doesn’t. The focus is on the 4:05 p.m. ET games and later with the forthcoming suggested Underdog Fantasy picks.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Pablo Lopez (MIN) vs. CLE
Pablo Lopez is comfortably the best pitcher on today's small slate. According to FanGraphs, in 32 starts spanning 194.0 innings last season, Lopez had a 3.66 ERA, 3.00 xERA, 3.28 xFIP, 2.62 SIERA, 1.15 WHIP, 6.0 BB%, 29.2 K%, 30.1 CSW%, 99 Stuff+, 107 Location+ and 109 Pitching+. He was slightly unlucky, but Lopez's underlying data was ace-caliber.
The talented righty got off to a fast start this year, holding the Royals to one run on a solo homer in seven innings, fanning seven hitters. He had a 36.9 CSW%, 109 Stuff+, 107 Location+ and 111 Pitching+. The betting info is favorable for another DFS-friendly showing from Lopez. The Twins are -155, and the game's total is only 7.5 runs. Lopez will be chalky but is the clear-cut top pitcher in all game types.
Martin Perez (PIT) at WAS
The pitchers behind Lopez leave much to be desired. So, saving salary on one of the flawed hurlers was a significant consideration for suggesting Martin Perez as the second-best pitcher on the slate. The veteran lefty can have useful starts when he limits free passes and keeps the ball on the ground.
Fortunately, the Nationals are a matchup that can bring the best out of Perez. Washington's active roster has only two players with over 250 plate appearances against lefties since 2021 and a 100 wRC+ or higher. In other words, only two of their hitters have been above average against lefties. Finally, the Pirates are -130, albeit with a slightly alarming total of 9.0 runs.
Suggested Lineup Stack
The Pirates had a disappointing offensive effort in a cushy matchup last night. They can atone for their clunker in another favorable matchup today. Josiah Gray's luck-induced 3.91 ERA in 2023 doesn't stand up to scrutiny. The righty's 5.03 xERA, 5.12 xFIP and 5.08 SIERA were a better representation of his work last season. The other shoe dropped for him in the opener when he allowed seven runs on eight hits, two homers and two walks in only 4.0 innings.
Additionally, Gray has struggled against lefties and righties. Since last season, he's yielded a .344 wOBA to left-handed batters and a .334 wOBA to righties.
Core Studs
- In 449 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Paul Goldschmidt has hit 24 homers with a .434 OBP, .273 ISO and 187 wRC+.
- Oneil Cruz has launched 17 homers with a .332 OBP, .247 ISO and 131 wRC+ in 298 plate appearances against righties in his career.
Value Plays/Punts
- In 673 plate appearances against righties since 2021, Jack Suwinski has mashed 38 taters with a .342 OBP, .250 ISO and 131 wRC+.
- Alex Kirilloff is ripping the cover off the ball. In 20 plate appearances this season, he has a .450 OBP, .222 ISO and 222 wRC+.
Thursday's Top 3 Underdog Fantasy Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Lance Lynn: 5.5 Strikeouts - Lower
Lance Lynn had five strikeouts in 4.0 innings in his first start of the season against the juggernaut Dodgers. Miami's offense isn't in the same tier as LA's. Yet, Lynn's underlying data had some notable blemishes. Lynn's average fastball velocity was down to 91.8 mph in his first start after averaging 92.2 mph in 2023. He also had an underwhelming 10.0 SwStr% and 24.3 CSW% against the Dodgers.
Moreover, Miami's lineup should have five batters who will bat left-handed against Lynn, and the veteran righty has been crushed by lefties for a .382 wOBA since last season. They could chase Lynn from the game early. Finally, the FantasyPros projections have Lynn pegged for only 4.99 strikeouts.
Paul Goldschmidt: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (1.2x "scorcher" multiplier)
Goldy's scorcher offer is too good to pass up. As noted above, he's a lefty killer. In 449 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Goldschmidt has hit 31 doubles, one triple and 24 homers with a .348 batting average and .273 ISO. Ryan Weathers is also a fantastic matchup for Goldy. Weathers has allowed a .322 batting average and .541 slugging to 211 righties since last season.
Bobby Witt: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher
Bobby Witt is on fire to open 2024. In 28 plate appearances, he's smacked four doubles, one triple, and two homers with a .400 batting average, .880 slugging, and .480 ISO. Witt has also been a handful for righties since breaking out last season. In 566 plate appearances against righties since 2023, Witt has hit 25 doubles, 11 triples and 23 homers with a .276 batting average, .499 slugging and .224 ISO.
Michael Soroka is unlikely to keep Witt in check. Since last season, 76 righties have had a .318 batting average and .591 slugging against Soroka. Finally, he had a pitiful 3.9 SwStr% in his first start this year.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.