MLB DFS, PrizePicks & Underdog Player Props Picks: Wednesday (4/3)

MLB is spread throughout the entire day. Thus, the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates have only five games, beginning at 6:45 pm ET. While the boards are full all day at PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy, the top player props in this piece are from the night’s contests.

• Weekly Trade Value Chart
• Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
• MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Wednesday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Cristian Javier (HOU) vs. TOR
Sadly, Cristian Javier couldn't follow up a breakout 2022 campaign with another stellar season. Instead, he had a 4.56 ERA and equally uninspiring ERA estimators. Javier put people on notice with his first start this year, though.

According to FanGraphs, he used his changeup 27.8% of the time in his first start after throwing it only 4.1% of the time in 2022 and 2023. Additionally, Javier had Stuff+ grades of 125, 113 and 142 for his four-seam fastball, slider and changeup versus 128, 94 and 78 in 2023. The leap for his changeup was jarring.

Javier spun six shutout innings against the Yankees, and the betting info is decent for him tonight. The Astros are -150, and the game's total is 9.0 runs. Salary considered, he narrowly edged the next pitcher for the top honors on this slate.

Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs. SF
The numbers for Tyler Glasnow's first two starts for the Dodgers are mixed. He has a 2.45 ERA in two starts spanning 11.0 innings this year, but his 3.29 xERA, 5.42 xFIP and 5.39 SIERA don't support his shiny ERA. In addition, Glasnow's 11.9 BB% and 19.0 K% are causes for concern.

Yet, his pitch modeling and ability to avoid bats are still strong. He has a 107 Stuff+ and a blistering 15.8 SwStr%. Glasnow's strikeouts have been suppressed by an utter lack of called strikes (9.5%). His called-strike rate is unsustainable and should regress toward his 17.2 Cstr% for his career. There are enough warts on his early-season profile to slot him behind Javier, but Glasnow is a high-ceiling choice. The betting info also supports using him in DFS since the Dodgers are -225, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.

Casey Mize (DET) at NYM
The pickings for cheap hurlers on this small slate are slim. Casey Mize missed the entire 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery after pitching in only two games for the Tigers in 2022. It's been a while since he's been on the bump in a regular-season game.

Mize had some interesting spring statistics, even if they weren't flawless. In six appearances (five starts) spanning 20.1 innings, he had a 2.21 ERA, 4.78 xFIP, 1.03 WHIP, 11.3 BB%, 25.0 K% and 11.4 SwStr%. Perhaps more intriguing, Mize had eye-catching pitch-modeling data.

The Tigers are slight underdogs (+105) tonight. Still, the game's total is a pitcher-friendly 7.0 runs, enhancing the appeal of using Mize in GPPs. Gamers must watch the weather again in New York, as a rainout is on the table.

Suggested Lineup Stack

• Road (Nationals Park)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/PIT -155

The Pirates have a mouthwatering matchup tonight. Conveniently, stacking them is affordable, which is helpful since the useful pitchers have sizable salaries. Circling back to the matchup, Trevor Williams had a 5.55 ERA, 5.66 xERA, 5.21 xFIP and 5.09 SIERA in 2023. Williams also coughed up 2.12 HR/9 and was knocked around by lefties (.371 wOBA) and righties (.385 wOBA).

Core Studs

• Oneil Cruz has had 298 plate appearances in his career against righties, hitting 17 homers with a .332 OBP, .247 ISO and 131 wRC+.
• Christopher Morel has drilled two homers with a .409 OBP, .381 ISO and 197 wRC+ in 22 plate appearances this season.
• Chris Bassitt has served up a .363 wOBA to 411 left-handed batters since last season, and Yordan Alvarez has had a .385 OBP, .299 ISO and 165 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers since 2021.

Value Plays/Punts

• Brendan Rodgers has been penciled into DFS-friendly lineup spots for the Rockies so far this year and should get one crack at lefty opener Luke Little. In 371 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Rodgers has had a .364 OBP, .214 ISO and 127 wRC+. DK projects Ben Brown to be Chicago's bulk reliever, and the rookie righty was lit on fire for six runs in only 1.2 innings in his lone big-league appearance this season. Brown also had a 5.33 ERA and 15.8 BB% in Triple-A last season. Thus, Rodgers is a lineup-spot and matchup-driven punt.
• In 673 plate appearances against righties since 2021, Jack Suwinski has had a .342 OBP, .250 ISO and 122 wRC+.
• Kerry Carpenter has tallied a .342 OBP, .228 ISO and 134 wRC+ in 480 plate appearances against righties in his career.

Wednesday's Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Cristian Javier: 26.5 Fantasy Points - Higher (Underdog Fantasy)

Cristian Javier: 24.5 Fantasy Points - More (PrizePicks)

Javier was featured as the top pitcher on the DFS slate primarily because of his pitch modeling in a sharp 2024 debut. However, his dominance against righties is also noteworthy because of Toronto's righty-leaning lineup. Since last year, Javier has held 326 righties to a .268 wOBA and punched them out at a 29.1% clip. Thus, Javier should pile up fantasy points, and he is featured on the PrizePicks Cheat Sheet.

Oneil Cruz: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher/More

Cruz is a holdover from the core studs. His excellence against righties was highlighted. The fly in the ointment in Cruz's profile is his high strikeout rate. Fortunately, Williams isn't equipped to exploit Cruz's punchout woes. The veteran righty has struck out a paltry 13.0% of the 353 lefties he's faced since last season. Cruz's over for 1.5 total bases is featured on both the Underdog Fantasy Cheat Sheet and the PrizePicks Cheat Sheet.

Mookie Betts: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher/More

Mookie Betts is on a nuclear run to start the 2024 season. In 38 plate appearances this season, Betts has hit five homers, three doubles and one triple with a .500 batting average, .667 ISO and 1.167 slugging. Furthermore, since 2021, he's had 69 extra-base hits, a .298 batting average, .307 ISO and .605 slugging in 517 plate appearances against lefties.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.