It’s only a three-game MLB DFS main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel today, beginning at 1:10 p.m. ET. Despite the light slate, there are a few intriguing Underdog pick ’em selections as well.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet 
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Ryan Pepiot (TB) vs. LAA
Ryan Pepiot's 5.40 ERA this season isn't ideal. However, his underlying data is more encouraging. According to FanGraphs, Pepiot has a 3.07 xERA, 3.16 SIERA, 1.02 WHIP, 7.7 BB%, 30.8 K%, 28.9 CSW%, 114 Stuff+, 103 Location+ and 105 Pitching+ in three starts this year, totaling 16.2 innings.
Tampa Bay's young hurler has a favorable matchup and rock-solid betting info. Mike Trout is a monster, but five of the Angels' projected starters have had a 92 wRC+ or lower against righties since 2021. The Rays are -155, and the game's total is 8.5 runs. Pepiot isn't a risk-free pick, but he's the comfortably top pitching option on today's tiny slate.
Jack Leiter (TEX) at DET
Jack Leiter is making his big-league debut today against the Tigers. Even well-regarded prospects can flop in their first start. Nevertheless, Leiter is in good form this season. In three appearances (two starts) spanning 14.1 innings in Triple-A this year, Leiter has a 3.77 ERA, 3.11 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, 5.3 BB%, 43.9 K% and 16.4 SwStr%.
Leiter's bat-missing ability is appealing. However, he's had spotty control throughout his minor-league career before this season, so he can lose the strike zone and get lit up. Fortunately, the Tigers are a good matchup for the debuting hurler. This season, the Tigers are 27th in wRC+ (79) against right-handed pitching. Their projected starters also have had unimpressive numbers against righties since 2021. Finally, the betting info is neutral. The Rangers are -110, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
The Red Sox have a juicy implied total in their hitter-friendly home ballpark against a shaky starter. In three starts totaling 12.2 innings this year, Carlos Carrasco has a 3.55 ERA, 3.68 xERA, 5.44 SIERA, 1.70 WHIP, 16.4 BB%, 20.0 K%, 25.7 CSW%, 96 Stuff+, 94 Location+ and 95 Pitching+. Carrasco is a ticking time bomb due for regression.
The veteran righty has also struggled with all hitters. Since last year, Carrasco has given up a .384 wOBA to lefties and a .393 wOBA to righties. This afternoon, the Red Sox are in an eruption spot.
Core Studs
- Triston Casas has feasted with the platoon advantage at home. In 254 plate appearances against righties at home in his career, Casas has hit 12 homers with a .406 OBP, .237 ISO and 143 wRC+.
- Since 2021, Rafael Devers has had a .362 OBP, .274 ISO and 143 wRC+ against righties.
- Corey Seager has thrived for the Rangers. In 872 plate appearances against righties since 2022, Seager has popped 46 homers with a .372 OBP, .245 ISO and 147 wRC+.
Value Plays/Punts
- In a tiny sample of 50 plate appearances against righties at home in his career, Wilyer Abreu has had a .440 OBP, .156 ISO and 164 wRC+. He also has a decent lineup spot for a punt.
- Enmanuel Valdez has been a precisely average hitter (100 wRC+) in 176 career plate appearances against righties. However, he also has had a nifty .202 ISO.
Thursday's Top 3 Underdog Fantasy Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Corey Seager: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher
As noted above, Seager kills righties. Kenta Maeda also isn't missing bats. Maeda has a 15.9 K% and 7.8 SwStr% in three starts this year. Seager should get the best of Maeda today.
Ryan Pepiot: 16.5 Pitching Outs - Higher
Pepiot has recorded over 16.5 outs in two of his three starts this season. The Rays haven't handled him with kid's gloves. Instead, according to ESPN, he's thrown 94, 94 and 85 pitches in three starts this season. As a result, Pepiot can mow down the Angels' underwhelming lineup for over 16.5 outs today.
Triston Casas: 0.5 Total Bases - Higher
My most significant concern for this selection is Casas's patience and Carrasco's bloated walk rate. Nevertheless, Casas can also swing the stick, and Carrasco has allowed a .283 batting average to lefties since last season. In addition, Casas has recorded a hit in 12 of 18 games this year.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
