The MLB DFS main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel has seven games and begins at 7:10 pm ET. The MLB fun doesn’t end with DFS. The lobbies at Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks are also overflowing with props.
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Monday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Tanner Houck (BOS) at OAK
Tanner Houck is the best pitcher in all DFS game types on a slate with lackluster options. The 27-year-old righty had an ERA north of 5.00 last year, but his ERA estimators were better. In addition, according to FanGraphs, Houck had a 4.18 ERA, 4.12 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, 8.7 BB% and 20.6 K% in 51.2 innings on the road in 2023. Those numbers weren't outstanding, but they were acceptable.
Houck also has had a 3.21 ERA, 3.97 xFIP, 1.16 WHIP, 9.9 BB% and 23.8 K% in 123.1 innings on the road in his career. He's a talented enough pitcher to get the better of Oakland's dreadful offense. Thus, the Red Sox are -135, and the game's total is an unimposing 8.0 runs.
Sean Manaea (NYM) vs. DET
Sean Manaea had a sharp spring after a promising finish to his 2023 campaign. In four starts spanning 16.2 innings in spring training, Manaea had a 3.24 ERA, 3.17 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, 5.9 BB%, 30.9 K% and 14.2 SwStr%.
Additionally, the veteran lefty was rock-solid in the second half of last season for the Giants. In 60.1 innings, Manaea had a 3.43 ERA, 4.05 xFIP, 1.14 WHIP, 7.7 BB% and 22.7 K%. He should be ready for a full workload out of the gate after stretching to 82 pitches in his final spring training start. The betting info is also decent. The Mets are -130, and the game's total is 8.0 runs. Manaea is the suggested SP2 in cash games at DK and in the GPP mix at both providers.
Ryne Nelson (ARI) vs. NYY
Ryne Nelson is strictly a contrarian bargain GPP pick. The right-handed pitcher pitched his way out of Arizona's rotation last year. However, his pitch modeling was above average, with grades of 101 Stuff+, 104 Location+ and 103 Pitching+. In the offseason, Nelson worked on increasing his extension and throwing a harder slider.
Spring training results should be taken with a grain of salt. Nevertheless, Nelson had a 2.66 ERA, 2.97 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP, 8.1 BB%, 30.2 K% and 14.9 SwStr% in six starts, totaling 20.1 innings. He also ended the spring with a 73-pitch effort. Thus, Nelson is built up for a nearly full workload. Nelson's most likely outcome tonight is probably a stinker. Yet, the risk of his improved strikeout rate sticking is worth gambling on at his bargain salary in GPPs, especially since he'll be on a low percentage of rosters.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
The Dodgers will likely be a chalky stack tonight. Regardless, their upside is tantalizing. The lineup is chock full of superstars and above-average hitters. Keaton Winn isn't a threatening matchup, either. Winn had a 4.68 ERA, 4.30 xERA, 3.89 xFIP and 3.72 SIERA for San Francisco last season, splitting time starting and relieving. LA should get the better of him.
- Road (Dodger Stadium)
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/SF +184
The Giants are a compelling stack that might be overlooked. James Paxton had a resurgent return to the hill last year through his first 10 starts, spinning a 2.73 ERA, 3.46 xFIP, 0.98 WHIP, 6.4 BB% and 29.1 K%. The lefty's average fastball velocity was 95.7 mph in those turns. Sadly, Paxton's play cratered down the stretch. In his final nine starts, lasting only 40.0 innings, he had a 6.98 ERA, 4.72 xFIP, 1.78 WHIP, 9.9 BB% and 19.4 K%. Paxton's average fastball velocity was down a tick to 94.7 mph.
Spring training didn't assuage concerns about Paxton's pathetic finish to 2023.
The Giants can tee off on Paxton if his stuff is still diminished in his first turn of the regular season.
Core Studs
- Mookie Betts has gone nuclear to start 2023. In 29 plate appearances, he's smashed four homers with a 24.1 BB%, 6.9 K%, .621 OBP, .636 ISO and 313 wRC+.
- Since 2021, Freddie Freeman has had a .419 OBP, .211 ISO and 158 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
- In 374 plate appearances against lefties since 2021, Jorge Soler has mashed 32 taters with a .349 OBP, .335 ISO and 144 wRC+.
Value Plays/Punts
- Brendan Donovan is primarily a lineup-spot-driven punt atop St. Louis's lineup. He's had a .377 OBP and 126 wRC+ against righties in his career, though.
- Victor Scott has the minimum salary at both DFS outlets. The speedy rookie had 94 stolen bases, a .303 batting average, .369 OBP, 7.4 BB%, 15.7 K% and 118 wRC+ in High-A and Double-A combined last season.
- Since 2021, Gavin Lux has had a .346 OBP and 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers.
Monday's Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props
Shohei Ohtani: 9.5 Fantasy Points - Higher (Underdog Fantasy)
Shohei Ohtani: 8.5 Fantasy Points - More (PrizePicks)
Shohei Ohtani is one of the studs in LA's loaded lineup. Since 2021, Ohtani has had a .396 OBP, .316 ISO and 166 wRC+ in 1,298 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers. Conversely, Winn yielded a .336 wOBA to 70 lefties in his rookie campaign in 2023.
Freddie Freeman: 9.5 Fantasy Points - Higher (Underdog Fantasy)
Freddie Freeman: 8.0 Fantasy Points - More (PrizePicks)
Freeman is a correlated play with Ohtani. For instance, if Ohtani is on base and Freeman drives him in, that helps both their fantasy scoring. The left-handed-hitting first baseman has the same favorable matchup. Moreover, Freeman is raking this season, posting one homer, a .464 OBP, .143 ISO and 147 wRC+ in 28 plate appearances.
Juan Soto: 9.5 Fantasy Points - Higher (Underdog Fantasy)
Juan Soto: 9.0 Fantasy Points - More (PrizePicks)
While I'm intrigued by Nelson in DK and FD contests, he's a favorable matchup for Juan Soto. The right-handed pitcher allowed a .375 wOBA to 304 left-handed batters last season.
Soto is off to a blistering start for the Yankees, smacking one homer with a .600 OBP, .235 ISO and 298 wRC+ in his first 20 plate appearances for the Bronx Bombers. Since 2021, he's had a .451 OBP, .256 ISO and 173 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers. Finally, Ohtani, Freeman and Soto are featured on the PrizePicks cheat sheet as stellar selections for more fantasy points at PrizePicks.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
