The MLB DFS main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel has 12 games and begins at 7:05 p.m. ET tonight. The robust collection of MLB games is also ideal for a vast pool of pick ’em choices at PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy. Here are our top MLB DFS and player prop bet picks for Friday’s games.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet 
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Friday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs. COL
Kevin Gausman is in a smash spot tonight. First, the betting info is pristine. The Blue Jays are -250, and the game's total is an unimposing 8.0 runs, especially considering how heavily favored the Blue Jays are. Second, Colorado's projected hitters are dreadful against righties and on the road, with only two hitters tallying higher than a 100 wRC+ against righties since 2021 and two exceeding a 100 wRC+ on the road in that span.
Gausman hasn't been sharp in two starts this season. Nevertheless, according to FanGraphs, he has had 98 Stuff+, 102 Location+ and 109 Pitching+. Gausman was also outstanding last season, spinning a 3.16 ERA, 3.85 xERA, 3.22 xFIP, 3.34 SIERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.2 BB%, 31.1 K% and 29.6 CSW% in 31 starts, totaling 185.0 innings. He should turn his season around tonight with a gem against the Rockies. Gausman is the top pitcher in all game types at both DFS providers tonight.
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs. STL
Brandon Pfaadt's 5.06 ERA in two starts this season doesn't align with his sparkling underlying data. In two starts spanning 10.2 innings, he has a 3.29 xERA, 2.56 xFIP, 2.55 SIERA, 1.31 WHIP, 2.1 BB%, 27.1 K%, 31.6 CSW%, 100 Stuff+, 111 Location+ and 109 Pitching+. The righty broke out in the postseason last year, and his underlying data paints a pretty picture this year.
The Diamondbacks are -120 tonight, and the game's total is 9.0 runs. Pfaadt might also be catching the Cardinals at the ideal time. St. Louis is tied for 24th in wRC+ (81) against righties this season. They also have an exploitable 24.9 K% against righties.
Luis Severino (NYM) vs. KC
Luis Severino's data isn't perfect, but his profile has encouraging numbers this season. In two starts spanning 10.0 innings, he's had a 3.60 ERA, 3.77 xERA, 2.50 xFIP, 2.72 SIERA, 1.60 WHIP, 23.5 CSW%, 101 Stuff+, 109 Location+ and 107 Pitching+. An unsustainable .406 BABIP inflates Severino's bloated WHIP, and his pitch modeling is fabulous.
The Royals tattooed a righty with rock-solid pitch data yesterday. Still, only three of Kansas City's projected starters have had over a 103 wRC+ against righties since 2021. In addition, just one of them has had over a 97 wRC+ on the road in that time frame. Finally, the Mets are -125, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
The Dodgers are a juggernaut. LA is second in wRC+ (128) against right-handed pitchers this season. Moreover, all the hitters in their projected lineup have been average to significantly above average against righties since 2021, with seven batters reaching at least a 120 wRC+.
Michael King shouldn't dissuade gamers from stacking the Dodgers. In three appearances (two starts) totaling 14.1 innings this season, he has a 3.14 ERA, 5.18 xERA, 5.12 xFIP, 5.11 SIERA, 1.47 WHIP, 17.2 BB%, 98 Stuff+, 98 Location+ and 98 Pitching+. The Dodgers can crush King if he's not flawless tonight.
- Home (Citi Field)
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/NYM -125
The Mets hung 16 runs on the Braves yesterday afternoon. Tonight's matchup against Michael Wacha isn't as favorable as yesterday's matchup. However, it's probably better than meets the eye. In 26 starts spanning 146.1 innings since last year, Wacha has had a 3.14 ERA, 4.32 xFIP and 4.29 SIERA. Wacha's ERA was significantly better than his ERA estimators.
The Mets aren't slouches, either. Seven of their projected starters have had at least a 111 wRC+ against righties since 2021. As a bonus, many of the hitters have bargain salaries, making them an ideal stacking match with LA's high-salaried stack.
Core Studs
- Mookie Betts is playing out of his mind this year. In 71 plate appearances in 2024, Betts has hit five homers and stolen two bases with a .507 OBP, .364 ISO and 230 wRC+.
- Since 2021, Shohei Ohtani has had a .379 OBP, .307 ISO and 157 wRC+ against righties.
- Freddie Freeman is raking from the middle of LA's lineup and has a track record of pummeling righties. Since 2021, he's had a .405 OBP, .206 ISO and 152 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
Value Plays/Punts
- Sadly, Jesse Winker's power hasn't rebounded to his pre-2022 level. Still, he has a DFS-friendly lineup spot, a .465 OBP and 142 wRC+ in 43 plate appearances this season.
- Since he's a mainstay, I should start charging Brett Baty rent for occupying a spot in this section. Bad joke aside, he has a .354 OBP and 110 wRC+ in 48 plate appearances this year.
- Both of DJ Stewart's hits this season have been homers. Despite having only two hits, he's been an offensive asset because of his patience and power, resulting in a .370 OBP, .316 ISO, and 132 wRC+.
Friday's Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 1.5 Total Bases - Higher (Underdog Fantasy)/More (PrizePicks)
Christian Encarnacion-Strand hasn't gotten off to a good start. Thankfully, his batted-ball data indicates he's had bad luck. CES has also muscled up against righties. In 218 career plate appearances against righties, he's hit seven doubles and 13 homers with a .255 batting average, .480 slugging and .225 ISO.
Conversely, Chris Flexen has struggled with righties. The 285 righties who've faced Flexen since last year have hit 11 doubles, one triple and 18 homers with a .342 batting average, .603 slugging and 12.6 K%. Thus, Encarnacion's over for 1.5 total bases is listed on the Underdog Cheat Sheet and the PrizePicks Cheat Sheet.
Michael Wacha: 5.5 Strikeouts - Lower/Less
The Mets were one of the two suggested stacks above. So, there's a chance Wacha is roughed up and chased before he can strike out over 5.5 batters. Additionally, his plate discipline numbers and pitch modeling aren't impressive. Since last season, he's had only a 10.8 SwStr%. This year, he's had 91 Stuff+, 100 Location+ and 103 Pitching+. Finally, six of New York's projected starters have had a 20.3 K% or lower against righties since 2021, and three were under 20.0%.
Mookie Betts: 10.5 Fantasy Points - Higher (Underdog Fantasy)
Mookie Betts: 8.0 Fantasy Points - Higher (PrizePicks)
Betts is a holdover from the core studs section. In addition to raking this year, he has a track record of hammering righties. Betts has had a .378 OBP, .259 ISO and 152 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers since 2021.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
