MLB DFS & Player Props Picks: Sunday (4/28)

It’s been a fun weekend of sports, but it feels like baseball has taken a backseat. That’s unfortunate for the sport, but we’re still knee-deep in the action. There’s something fun about monitoring and following these teams every day because it resembles the grind of real life. That’s exciting since we have a full Sunday slate to talk about, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

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Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tarik Skubal (DET) vs. KC
Skubal is one of the frontrunners for the AL Cy Young, collecting a 1.82 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9 rate. That’s what we saw in limited time last season, and we can’t overlook that he had a 1.37 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 13.5 K/9 rate at home last year. The Royals have been a surprise offense, but Skubal enters this matchup as a -160 favorite, with KC projected to score just 3.5 runs.

Pablo Lopez (MIN) at LAA
Lopez has developed into one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last four years, providing a 3.61 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in that span. He hasn’t quite found that form this season, but we’re encouraged that he has a 0.80 WHIP over his last two starts. He also scored at least 40 FanDuel points in both of his matchups with LA last season, and they’re even worse this year without Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon.

Reid Detmers (LAA) vs. MIN
Detmers is one of the breakout pitchers through the opening month, totaling a 2.12 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The advanced statistics always told us this could be a possibility, with Detmers averaging nearly 40 FD points per game this year. Minnesota couldn’t be much better of a matchup either, with the Twins ranked 25th in wOBA, 28th in xwOBA, and 24th in runs scored.

Albert Suarez (BAL) vs. OAK
This journeyman hasn’t pitched since 2017, but he’s been sparkling in his two starts this year. The 34-year-old hasn’t allowed a run through 11.1 innings, scoring 29 and 38 FD points in those outings. That sort of form is impossible to overlook against Oakland, with the A’s ranked last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and xwOBA last season! That’s why Suarez is a -170 favorite!

Jared Jones (PIT) at SF
I actually had Jones in yesterday’s article before being pushed back, so I will include him as a bonus here. He has some of the nastiest stuff in baseball, providing a 2.79 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. He’s also scored at least 36 FanDuel points in all six starts and is only scratching the surface of what he could become. A start against San Fran in ORACLE Park only adds to his value because that’s one of the most spacious parks in the sport. In addition, the Giants rank 19th in xwOBA!

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Miami Marlins (vs. Patrick Corbin)

• Home (LoanDepot Park)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/MIA -142

Stacking the Marlins sounds laughable, but we would use a little league team against Corbin. The left-hander has developed into one of the worst pitchers in baseball, providing a 5.66 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over the last five years. That’s nearly 600 innings of pitiful pitching, and it’s hard to understand why this guy still has a job. We also don’t mind that Miami is one of the cheapest stacks out there in this magical matchup.

Houston Astros (vs. Austin Gomber)

• Road (Estadio Alfredo Harp Helu)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 16 Runs/HOU -205

This is the annual game in Mexico! If you know anything about these fun games, you know they are some of the highest-scoring games of the season. We were happy to use Houston in Coors Field, but this is an even better spot! Not only do the Rockies have the worst ERA in baseball, but Gomber has a 5.42 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over the last three years. Don’t be surprised to see the Stros drop double-digit runs once again.

Core Studs

• The Stros are the highest-projected offense on this slate, and Altuve could feast in this matchup. He gets the platoon advantage against Gomber, generating a .397 OBP and .950 OPS against lefties since 2021. That looks even better considering his recent form, registering a .407 OBP and .996 OPS this year.
• De La Cruz has the talent to be the best player in fantasy, and has showcased it through the opening month. Elly has seven homers, 18 steals, 18 RBI, and 24 runs scored while totaling a .400 OBP. That makes him the highest-scoring player in fantasy, and we don’t need to fade him against a pitcher with a 4.61 ERA.
• Gunnar is taking a step into superstardom. The Orioles slugger was one of the best players over the final months of last year and has a .373 OBP and 1.022 OPS so far this year. He’s also got a .898 OPS against righties throughout his career, compiling a 1.086 OPS over his last 16 outings.
• J-Rod got off to a slow start this season, but that superstar does that every year. He’s starting to get out of it, though, totaling a .410 AVG and .977 OPS over his last nine games. He has five steals in that span and should slice through Brandon Pfaadt‘s 4.97 ERA.

Value Plays/Punts

• Pena has quietly had a fantastic start for the Astros, hitting .324 while amusing a .780 OPS. What we love are his superb splits, sporting a .348 OBP, .473 SLG, and .821 OPS against southpaws over the last three years. That makes him tough to avoid, with the Astros projected to score six runs!
• It’s tough to figure out which Miami players we want to stack, but Bell is the best option. He’s rocked left-handers, generating a .360 OBP, .494 SLG and .854 OPS against them last year. That’s incredible from such an affordable player, and he makes for a great pairing with Bryan De La Cruz in this Miami stack. In 18 at-bats against Corbin, Bell has a 1.577 OPS!
• Bo hasn’t been great this season, but he’s been much better since the opening week. The shortstop has a .261 AVG over his last 16 games despite going hitless in his previous two outings. What we really love is that he kills lefties, totaling a .368 OBP and .893 OPS against them last year.
• Langford has gotten off to a disappointing start for fantasy managers, but he’s too good to be this cheap. This guy still had an OPS above 1.000 throughout his minor-league career, and he’s expected to flirt with that at this level. We’re also encouraged that he has a .355 OBP over his last 16 outings and gets the platoon advantage here.

Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props

Zack Littell: 4.0 Strikeouts – Over

I was shocked to see this prop. Chicago sits last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and xwOBA, while Littell has at least four Ks in all five starts this year.

Albert Suarez: 15.5 Outs – Higher

This means that Suarez needs to pitch into the sixth inning. He’s done that in his first two starts while seeing his pitch count rise in both. This is also the easiest matchup he’s had as well!

Jose Altuve: 2.5 Bases – Higher

With Houston projected to score nine runs in this spot, Altuve should be running rampant around the bases.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.