MLB DFS & Player Props Picks: Sunday (4/21)

Sunday slates are always more challenging because we have games spread throughout the day. What makes it truly difficult is that we have numerous players sitting out. That’s been typical in baseball throughout the last decade because Sunday is the best time to rest some of your veterans. That opens up a ton of value but also makes these picks much tougher the night ahead. In any case, we have a good read on some of these situations, so let’s go ahead and get into it!

• Weekly Trade Value Chart
• Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
• Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart
• MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Aaron Nola (PHI) vs. CWS
We had Wheeler in here yesterday in the same matchup, and we’re going right back to the well. We discussed how Chicago has the worst offense in baseball, ranked last in runs scored and wOBA. That’s terrifying against a talented pitcher like Nola, providing a 3.72 ERA and 1.13 WHIP throughout his career. He’s paired that with some elite strikeout stuff and will enter this magical matchup as a -300 favorite.

Joe Musgrove (SD) vs. TOR
There aren’t many aces on this slate, but Musgrove is on the fringe. The righty got out to a nightmarish start when he allowed nine runs through two starts, but he’s getting better since then. We’re talking about a guy who has a 3.05 ERA and 1.09 WHIP over the last three years, and we expect him to return to that sooner rather than later. A matchup with Toronto is not as terrifying as it sounds, with the Blue Jays ranked 21st in runs scored.

Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs. OAK
Bibee has also gotten off to a rough start, but a matchup with Oakland could get him back on track. The A’s were 29th or 30th in runs scored, wOBA, and xwOBA last season and are right there again this year. We love that when looking at Bibee’s statistics from last year, providing a 2.98 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He should regress back to those numbers soon, and a home matchup with Oakland is the best way to do it.

Cristian Javier (HOU) at WAS
The Stros righty had a disappointing 2023 season, but he’s been a stud outside of that. Javier had a 3.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in the three years prior, which is right on pace with his 1.54 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this year. That consistency should flow easily into a wonderful matchup with Washington, ranked 21st in wOBA and 25th in runs scored.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Adrian Houser)

• Home (Dodger Stadium)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/LAD -225

We could have the Dodgers here on almost every slate, but they’re impossible to fade when they face a weak pitcher. Houser is that, generating a 4.70 ERA and 1.50 WHIP this season. He’s also got a 1.39 WHIP over the last five years and will surely struggle against a lineup with four MVP candidates.

Cincinnati Reds (vs. Jose Soriano)

• Home (Great American Ballpark)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/CIN -140

The Reds are always a dangerous stack at home, with Great American Ballpark developing into a hitter’s haven. That’s why these are always some of the highest-projected games on these slates, with Cincy projected to score five runs. It makes more sense when you look at their opposition, with Soriano sporting a 4.80 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. That’s not far off of his 4.24 ERA and 1.47 WHIP at the minors last year, which is terrifying since he never pitched above Double-A before some random relief appearances last season.

Core Studs

• I drafted Trout across many season-long leagues but couldn’t have seen a start like this coming. The superstar is on pace for about 60 homers and 40 steals, but that’s actually not that far off from what we’ve seen from this MVP in the past. That hot start makes him tough to avoid in a hitter’s haven like Great American Ballpark, especially since he faces a pitcher with a 4.34 ERA and 1.45 WHIP.
• If we stack Cincy, we have to get a piece of De La Cruz. This youngster is one of the most talented prospects over the last decade. Through the opening three weeks, he’s provided six homers and 10 steals. He also had 35 steals in less than 100 games last year, and we love that he has the platoon advantage against Soriano.
• Shohei was slow to get going in his first week with the Dodgers, but he’s found his groove now. The former AL MVP has a multi-hit game in eight of his last 14 outings, generating a 1.211 OPS in that span. He’s also had a 1.140 OPS against righties since the start of last year and shouldn’t struggle against a guy like Houser.
• Turner was terrible in the opening months of last season, but that’s not the case this year. The speedy shortstop has a .402 OBP and .915 OPS. He’s also has an extra-base hit in five pf his last six outings, and we aren’t worried about the matchup with Nick Nastrini. The ChiSox pitcher had a 5.06 ERA and 1.31 WHIP at Triple-A before making his MLB debut last week.

Value Plays/Punts

• Naylor is one of my favorite players because he gives this Guardians team a boost with his energy. That’s been showing on the plate, providing a .395 OBP and .989 OPS so far this season. He’s also got a 1.132 OPS against righties, which is awesome since he faces one with a 5.32 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.
• Renfroe is risky, but the power potential makes him an enticing option in a GPP. This guy has a career ISO well above .200 and can go deep in any quality matchup. That’s what we have here, facing Cole Irvin and his 6.75 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. It also gives Renfroe the platoon advantage, accruing a .521 SLG and .860 OPS against lefties throughout his career.
• Carpenter is overlooked because he’s in Detroit but he’s a sneaky power hitter. The Tigers cleanup hitter had a .340 OBP and .811 OPS in a breakout 2023 campaign and has backed it up with a .992 OPS through the opening three weeks. That’s rough for Louie Varland, who has accumulated an 8.36 ERA and 2.07 WHIP.
• Nootbaar came off the IL earlier in the week, but he’s been an on-base machine throughout his career. He had an OBP above .400 in the final months as the Cards leadoff hitter last year, amassing a .386 OBP against righties since the start of last season. That makes him way too cheap, especially since he faces a righty like Rea, registering a 4.63 career ERA.

Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props

Jose Soriano: 6.0 Strikeouts – Lower

Cincy is one of the highest-projected lineups on this slate, and it’ll be tough for Soriano to reach this strikeout prop if they reach their five-run projection. The Reds righty has never surpassed this number in any start yet!

Kerry Carpenter: 0.5 RBI – Higher (x1.25)

Carpenter is one of the hottest hitters in baseball, and he should get some RBI opportunities in the heart of this lineup against a struggling righty.

Elly De La Cruz: 0.5 Bases – Higher (x0.85)

EDLC is rolling right now, and it’s hard to believe he only needs one hit to clear this total. He’s cleared it in three of his last four games, with the only outlier being a game where he walked four times!

Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio

Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.