Fantasy baseball enthusiasts are always looking for an edge in their leagues, and one strategy that can pay off is buying low on struggling players and selling high on those who have exceeded expectations. Below, our featured experts look closely at some players they’re targeting for these trades. Our experts have closely monitored the latest player trends and performance metrics to identify key players you should consider buying low and selling high to maximize your roster’s potential.
By leveraging our exclusive trade analyzer and relying on advanced metrics and our comprehensive player rankings and player projections, our experts have determined which players you should be targeting in trades, and which ones you should be looking to move. So, whether you’re in need of a roster shake-up or simply looking to capitalize on a player’s hot streak, this article is here to guide you through the process.
Let’s dive into these trade recommendations, analyzing the rationale behind each move and providing you with actionable advice to help you dominate your league. And don’t forget to check out our other fantasy baseball resources to help you stay ahead of the competition all season long. Happy trading!
- Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Assistant
- Fantasy Baseball Trade Tools
- Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Baseball Players to Buy Low & Sell High
What one MLB player are you trying to buy low and why? Also, who are you willing to give up for him?
Francisco Lindor (SS – NYM)
“Buying low in fantasy baseball is not easy, where most players are experts, but I would see if I could get Francisco Lindor for less than I could later in the season. His xBA is .283, and the xwOBA is .347, one point higher than his actual wOBA from last year. I would be willing to give up a quality third starting pitcher as a way to open talks with another player thrown in, but maybe a swap for an underperforming SP such as Luis Castillo could be fair.”
– Scott Engel (RotoBaller)
“Fantasy managers are panicking about Francisco Lindor, and I’d happily take him off their hands if they want. The veteran shortstop has been magnificently underperforming through the first 17 games of 2024. But it’s 17 games! Lindor’s expected stats are 100 points higher than his actual numbers, suggesting that regression to the mean is in our favor. Additionally, he’s had a couple of multi-hit games in the last five. Lindor has crossed 600 plate appearances in each of the last two years, and I think his productivity is on its way. I’d start the trade talks by offering Oswaldo Cabrera and go from there.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Julio Rodriguez (OF – SEA)
“We are deep in the dumps with Julio Rodriguez right now, as he’s hitting .206 with a 34% K%. Also of worry, some of the important stuff is down. His Barrel% is 7.3%, which is around 5% lower than last year. His hard hit% is just 39%, where he was well over 50%. As bad as it all is, it screams as an anomaly, as his BABIP is around 50 points lower than his career average, and he has a .253 xBA. When the uptick in average comes, so will the power. He already has almost 115 max EV. Here’s my favorite, though: He’s only hitting .211 against fastballs, but with a .290 xBA against, his average EV on those fastballs is 91.6 MPH. The early season has a hold of Julio. Buy now and have the worst already behind him. ”
– Christopher Welsh (FantasyPros)
“There is a window every April to buy one of the best players in baseball. Without fail, Julio Rodriguez struggles mightily in April. He’s now a career .221/.285/.331 slasher over 65 career games in the month of April with a .616 OPS. Now, you’re not getting Julio cheap, but you could consider a package starting with Pete Alonso or Elly De La Cruz and probably get a conversation started. Just know, the window is closing because, on May 1st, Rodriguez becomes an MVP candidate again.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Nico Hoerner (2B, SS – CHC)
“I am buying low on Nico Hoerner. There are bound to be owners ready to jump ship after the abysmal start for Hoerner. There were some key factors involved as the Cubs faced an imbalanced number of righty versus lefty pitchers to start the season, and that led to a lot of lineup shuffling that likely disrupted Hoerner early. He is starting to heat up, and I’d pay whatever it took to get him before his value skyrockets.”
– Chad Simpson (Fantasy Six Pack)
Luis Castillo (SP – SEA)
“If you are panicking about Luis Castillo, you should go ahead and trade him…to me. Because if we’re in a league together, I’m willing and ready to buy low. Despite striking out 27 and only walking four batters over 21 2/3 innings, the rest of Castillo’s numbers, at least on the surface, are ugly. 5.82 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 10.9% swinging strike, .337 average against, .547 slugging against, .395 wOBA against. You get the point. They’re rough. But Castillo has done this before to start the season, and he has a long track record of being very good. And since we have already lost approximately 75 pitchers this season, you shouldn’t give up on someone like Castillo just because some of his early numbers aren’t very pretty. That is especially true when you consider this: his numbers SHOULD be a lot better.
Yes, his ERA is 5.82, but his expected numbers (FIP, xFIP, SIERA, and xERA) are as follows: 3.11, 2.87, 3.06, and 3.65. Those batted ball numbers we just mentioned? His expected numbers are all 75 to 128 points lower there, too. And his BABIP is currently .446. Castillo is going to be better. If he stays healthy (and he has for the majority of his career), he’s going to give you 200 strikeouts to go with a solid ERA and WHIP. If you can buy low now, he has league-winning potential.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
Check out all of our weekly fantasy baseball content
What one MLB player are you trying to sell high right now, and why? Also, who would you try to get in return?
Tyler Glasnow (SP – LAD)
“We have certainly already seen how well Tyler Glasnow can pitch when he is healthy. But I would want to move him before another IL stint robs me of using him for an extensive period again. He has never pitched more than 120 innings and I would try to move him for another respectable starting pitcher and a solid bat that can fill a need if possible. ”
– Scott Engel (RotoBaller)
Jose Berrios (SP – TOR)
“Jose Berrios’s ERA jumps out at you at 1.05, but he has one of the biggest starting pitcher differentials between his actual ERA and his expected ERA which is at 4.45, a more than three-run difference. He’s getting hit harder with a 50% hard-hit rate against. Before getting the gift of Colorado, Berrios was sporting a 19% K%, paired with a higher walk rate than the previous four years. His “slurve” is more effective than usual, but both the sinker and fastball have dramatically higher expected batting averages against and 92+ MPH exit velocities against. I believe Berrios can continue being a solid pitcher, just not a sub-three ERA pitcher. That one ERA might be a sign of a great sell-high opportunity before things come back down to earth.”
– Christopher Welsh (FantasyPros)
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (OF – ARI)
“I’m taking the easy path on who to sell high on, but for me, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is a no-brainer slam-dunk sell. He has had one of these months every single year of his career when he is just unstoppable at the plate. It never ever ever ever sticks. If I were to sell him, I would look to try and get someone like Bogaerts or Reynolds, a trusty vet who is due to heat up soon.”
– Chad Simpson (Fantasy Six Pack)
Garrett Crochet (SP – CWS)
“I know Garrett Crochet has been a strikeout machine, but you have to look at the macro when evaluating him. The White Sox are awful and not getting better anytime soon. Because of that, his win potential is limited, as his innings will be down the stretch and into potential fantasy playoffs. His value is at its peak, and as he gets more exposure to the league, his price has the potential to decline. If you could get Jordan Montgomery or even Brady Singer for him straight up, I would make that deal.”
– Joe Pisapia (FantasyPros)
Jake Fraley (OF – CIN)
“This might be the time to see who you can get for Jake Fraley. The 28-year-old outfielder is slashing .400/.442/.575 and has stolen five bases. Fraley’s career slash line is .244/.339/.421, and his expected stats are over 130 points lower. He is on the long side of a platoon, and the Reds have plenty of options to fill in should he start to struggle. I would start by asking for someone like Bryan Reynolds in return.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Jarred Kelenic has exactly one plate appearance against a lefty so far this season (he struck out).
BA: .400
xBA: .276SLG: .486
xSLG: .390wOBA: .425
xwOBA: .330I'm not sure you can sell high on someone with 0 HR and 0 SB. But if you can, you should.
— Mike Maher (@mikeMaher) April 17, 2024
Jarred Kelenic (OF – ATL)
“If you are in the Jarred Kelenic business (we can discuss why you are in such a business at another time), now is the time to get out. Perhaps you acquired him in a dynasty league back when he was the consensus top prospect in baseball and have been stuck while he dominated in Triple-A but struggled to figure things out at the major league level the last few years. Maybe you drafted him in a deeper league this year or, better yet, picked him up off waivers when he got off to a hot start this season. Regardless of how you found yourself in this position, you’re in luck: now is the perfect time to sell. Kelenic is batting .400 with a .947 OPS and .425 wOBA through 13 games. He’s even hitting the ball harder than he ever has before. Fantastic, right? There’s just one problem.
Ok, there are several problems. The first is that those numbers don’t include any home runs or stolen bases. The second is that he isn’t playing against lefthanders (he is 0-for-1 with a strikeout against lefties to start the year). And lastly, his expected numbers are significantly worse than his actual numbers across the board. His xBA is .276, his xSLG is .390 (nearly 100 points lower than his .486 SLG), and his xwOBA is .330 (current wOBA is .425). I could go on, but this blurb is already way too long. But the point is: sell Kelenic now for whatever you can get for him while that batting average begins with a 4.”
– Mike Maher (FantasyPros)
Check out all of our weekly fantasy baseball content
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | SoundCloud | iHeartRadio | YouTube
