The NFL Draft is approaching, and the average draft position (ADP) is changing rapidly in some instances at Underdog Fantasy. This is the final look at risers and fallers before the NFL Draft, covering the period from March 21 to April 14.
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Best Ball Risers and Fallers From March to April
Quarterbacks
C.J. Stroud has a new weapon at his disposal, and gamers are understandably excited and pushing the second-year quarterback up the draft board. Caleb Williams's ascension has also continued as the seemingly mortal lock to go first in the NFL Draft and join a bolstered pass-catching corps.
The Jets and Titans added wide receivers in free agency to help Aaron Rodgers and Will Levis, respectively. Rookies J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix are also eye-catching risers, with the former a potential top-five pick in the NFL Draft and the latter a possible first-round choice.
Stroud's gain in his pass-catching corps was Josh Allen's loss. The Bills have a glaring need at wide receiver and will undoubtedly tap into the NFL Draft's deep and talented class of wide receivers. Still, Allen's fall is warranted but shouldn't extend much further. Patrick Mahomes and Anthony Richardson have slipped behind the climbing Stroud.
It isn't easy to get excited about Justin Herbert's 2024 outlook. He no longer has his two most productive pass-catchers or a reliable pass-catching running back. Furthermore, his new offensive coordinator, Greg Roman, has called run-heavy offenses throughout his career.
Russell Wilson is projected to open the year as Pittsburgh's starting quarterback. However, the Steelers also traded for Justin Fields. Both players have fallen, and while Fields's fantasy football upside is alluring, he'll need to fall closer to the 200th pick to warrant rolling the dice on him. Wilson is even less appealing since he no longer adds much value as a runner and could be benched during the end of the regular season if he's ineffective. If Wilson's riding the pine during the Underdog Fantasy playoffs, he can't help best ball teams win money.
Running Backs
The trio of premium free-agent running backs who joined new teams is moving up. Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry are projected bell-cow running backs in above-average offenses. Joe Mixon landed on his feet after getting traded from one intriguing offense to another. Zack Moss is Mixon's replacement for the Bengals.
While a run-heavy offense would hurt Herbert's outlook, it enhances Gus Edwards's value if he can avoid getting bumped down the depth chart by an incoming rookie running back. Speaking of rookie running backs, Trey Benson and Jonathon Brooks have the earliest ADPs for rookie running backs, and they've risen since March 21.
Travis Etienne has a bit further to fall before he's appropriately valued. Rachaad White and James Cook have flip-flopped spots in the rankings, making Cook the last RB1 and White the top RB2. Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are now teammates with similar skill sets. They'll share the workload, but how they split it is a mystery. Their ADPs are fair.
Moss is the Bengals' presumptive lead running back. However, Chase Brown is faster and might add more juice to Cincinnati's backfield. I disagree with Brown's fall and will gleefully pop him in Underdog Fantasy drafts at his reduced price.
Wide Receivers
The Big Three rookie wideouts -- Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze -- are notable risers. Yet, rookie fever has captured the imagination of best ball drafters, evidenced by Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, Jermaine Burton, Javon Baker and Jalen McMillan landing on the risers table. As I stated in the previous look at risers and fallers, this is the pattern for rookies. Gamers should jump all over the top prospects in the earliest best ball drafts to soak up closing-line value (the difference between the ADP you select them at and their closing ADP).
Stefon Diggs was the player I teased in Stroud's and Allen's analysis above. He's another mouth to feed in Houston's passing game, and Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Noah Brown have fallen accordingly. Rashee Rice could face a suspension after his high-speed driving caused a multi-car accident.
Not all of the rookie wide receivers are rising. Instead, Troy Franklin, Keon Coleman and Roman Wilson have fallen. All three are intriguing prospects, but they're unlikely to be picked in the first round. According to NFL Mock Draft Database, Coleman is projected to go 39th, Franklin is projected to be picked 46th and Wilson isn't projected inside the top 64 players.
Tight Ends
The top 12 tight ends didn't change from March 21 to April 14. Still, Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts moved up approximately half a round. Kincaid could lead the Bills in targets in 2024, and Kirk Cousins is better than any quarterback Pitts has played with to this point in his young career.
It's somewhat head-scratching that Diggs's addition to the Texans didn't impact Dalton Schultz's ADP. There is only one football to go around. To warrant his ADP, Schultz must come out on the right side of touchdown variance.
T.J. Hockenson is still being picked too early. He's returning from reconstructive knee surgery and will catch passes from Sam Darnold or a rookie quarterback this year. Darren Waller is still considering retirement. Gamers shouldn't draft him on teams with only two tight ends, but his upside is worth chasing at his cheap price as a TE3.
More Fantasy Football Draft Advice
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
