We are fast approaching the quarter mark in the fantasy baseball season. Nobody really wants to admit it yet, but we’ve started to move beyond the “I can wait for him to turn it around” stage. We’ve now entered the “Okay, I need to lock it in and make smarter choices about who I’m starting” stage. That’s where this article is meant to come in handy. I’m your sherpa here to guide you up the mountain of weekly matchups.
Last week, I said to avoid Houston and their short schedule. That’s actually gone over very well so far, with the Astros scoring just six runs in the first three games. On the other side, the Yankees and Padres have both been performing well across the board.
Next week, only six teams play a full seven-game schedule. There are also no teams that play only five games. So, in a week with so many teams playing packed schedules, it becomes even more important to capitalize on matchups when you can. Let’s do this.
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Fantasy Baseball Planner: Week 6
Matchups To Target
Miami Marlins – vs WAS (1), vs COL (3), at OAK (3)
It’s not often you see a team match up against three different opponents in a week. It’s also not often that teams get to match up against three of the worst pitching staffs in baseball in the same week.
The Marlins are by no means been an offensive juggernaut, but if there was ever a “get right” week, it would be this one. They face Jake Irvin, who just surrendered 12 hits and six runs in his last outing. They follow that up by facing Colorado’s 5.61 team ERA and .291 batting average against, and finish with Oakland’s .250 batting average against. Miami should thrive.
Pittsburgh Pirates – at OAK (3), vs COL (3)
Knock Knock…who’s there?…It’s the exact same team matchups we already covered! The Pirates not only face the same horrendous pitching, they’re going to do it with even more style.
Unlike the Marlins, the Pirates have some legitimate talent at the plate. Coming into this season, Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski, and Henry Davis were all being talked about with high hopes. This should be the week they all put the league on notice.
Players To Target
De La Cruz has gone from highlighting my weekly waiver wire to now being the first player named on the weekly planner. When I like a player, I tend to REALLY like a player.
De La Cruz went from a guy who hit for consistent average with a little pop to a real deal power threat who didn’t sacrifice his power to get there. He’s got nine XBH already with a career-high barrel rate (13.3%), xSLG (.507), and he turned a good chunk of his groundballs into line drives (28%). Facing below-average pitching should only help De La Cruz take another step forward in production next week.
If we’re looking at just the overall stat line, Suwinski isn’t very appealing to the eye. Look a little deeper, and he’s made real changes that should lead to more success at the plate rather quickly. An 89.7% zone contact rate, .241 xBA, and 18% strikeout rate are all by far the best of his career. The quality of contact will come with time, especially with him swinging at over 75% of pitches in the zone.
All of these are signs that a player may be just one or two at-bats away from getting hot in a hurry. I’d bet a good chunk of money that facing the A’s and the Rockies may be the final piece of the puzzle to unlocking a hot Suwinski run.
Matchup To Avoid
Atlanta Braves – at SEA (3), at LAD (3)
Right now, I cannot think of two pitching staffs I would want to face less than the Mariners and the Dodgers. Adding in the fact that those are the only teams on the docket for the Braves next week and that both series just so happen to be on the road, I’m even less excited.
It’s typically difficult to justify fading Braves hitters, but that’s exactly why they’re here. Both the Mariners and Dodgers sport a sub-4.00 team ERA while also being in the top six in batting average against. They’re also both top 12 in team Stuff+. All in all its going to likely be a nightmare to face, even for the Braves. Some guys like Ronald Acuna Jr. are always matchup-proof, but many others are far from being must starts this week.
Olson is probably the most high-profile guy I’ve ever put in the players-to-avoid section. I’m aware that if you drafted him it likely cost a second or early-third round pick. He’s going to be fine in the long term. It’s the short term that looks troublesome.
Olson has just two hits in his last 39 trips to the plate. Guys go through slumps, which are understandable. The issue is Olson facing a murderer’s row of starting pitching. It’s tough to imagine success from a guy about to face Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Tyler Glasnow all essentially in a row. It’s going to be tough to bench Olson, but it feels like it may be the right move for next week.
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