What a nightmare it has been in the world of pitching lately. With so many big-time arms going down already, projecting the next week of games can be tough. Lots of fresh faces are already making their debuts this season and many teams have been scoring runs in bunches. I’m looking at you, Kansas City Royals.
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It’s an interesting slate of games in Week 4, to say the least. Plenty of teams play seven games, which we absolutely love around here. But so many teams spend the week playing both home and away. Only three teams spend next week either fully at home or fully on the road.
Last week we were blessed with plenty of games played at Great American Ball Park and Coors Field, and we were not disappointed. This week once again provides plenty of great matchups and matchup advantages to exploit. With that in mind, let’s jump straight into the planner.
Fantasy Baseball Planner: Week 4
Matchups to Target
Los Angeles Dodgers – vs WAS (3), vs NYM (3)
Remember when I said only three teams are playing either fully at home or away next week? Well, the Dodgers are the only team that plays nothing but home games this upcoming week. One of the best offenses in baseball gets the benefit of not having to travel, but they also have some pretty juicy matchups.
To start the week, they face a Washington Nationals team that doesn’t have a decided-upon starter for Monday’s matchup. Follow that up with Patrick Corbin and Jake Irvin and you have a recipe for run after run after run. In a combined 27 innings of work, they’ve already given up 22 runs combined. They have ok strikeout numbers but the Dodgers feast on both-handed pitching. It’s going to be a field day for Los Angeles at home.
Then they face the Mets, whose rotation is in complete shambles. They project to face the Dodgers running Sean Manaea, Jose Butto and Adrian Houser. Respectfully, Manaea and Butto haven’t been terrible but Houser belongs alongside Corbin and Irvin. Manaea may pose a problem as he’s currently sporting a 24% K-BB rate and has always had decent strikeout ability. Butto, on the other hand, has a 13% walk rate and a propensity for getting hit hard. The Dodgers are just too good at home, so expect them to exploit these matchups.
Seattle Mariners – vs CIN (3), @ COL (3)
It’s no big secret that the Seattle Mariners are the worst team in baseball in terms of striking out. For a team that cut bait with a ton of players this offseason to reduce strikeouts and be better at “controlling the zone,” they sure did find a way to mess that up. This week won’t start much different, but boy does it end with a juicy “get right” matchup for the Mariners.
Starting the week against Cincinnati will be both good and bad. They’re set to face all right-handers in the forms of Frankie Montas, Hunter Greene and Nick Martinez. They’ve given up a combined four home runs. Being at home in Seattle won’t play much of a factor. The Mariners have struggled against right-handers this season but the trio of Reds pitchers plus their pitching staff have proven to be hittable. Their bullpen carries an ERA just shy of five, and Greene and Martinez have given up a large chunk of runs this season. Seattle will need to play some small ball. If they can, the hits are possible.
On the other side, they face the Colorado Rockies on the road at Coors Field. A hitters’ paradise, if you will. The kind of place that made Dante Bichette look like an all-time great. If there was ever a place this Mariners lineup needed to travel to in order to feel good, it is Coors Field. Not only that, they are set to square up against a lefty in Kyle Freeland (who they perform well against) and a right-hander in Cal Quantrill who has already given up 12 runs and four long balls in just 15 innings of work. Seattle is a home run-dependent team so they’re going to need their big bats to show up, which you should fully expect to see.
Hitters to Target
James Outman burst onto the scene last year with a great all-around season. Strikeouts were an issue but he ended up with 42 XBH and 16 stolen bases. After a slow start this season he’s beginning to flash that great all-around skill set. He just finished the Twins series with four hits and two home runs in three games. He’s playing every day this season. His combination of speed and power should be on full display against the sub-par pitching matchups.
422-foot home run from James Outman gets the @Dodgers on the board! pic.twitter.com/9aQMdnNgoY
— MLB (@MLB) April 10, 2024
Seattle’s lineup construction is a bit off. They’re uncharacteristically lacking left-handed power. While that does make it difficult for the Mariners against runs of right-handed starters, it makes it easy to spot who may stand out. Dominic Canzone got the nod in left field this season and the power is very evident. Five hits, two home runs and a double in his last three starts thanks to a 15.8% barrel rate and 47.4% hard-hit rate. Canzone is a prime breakout candidate in Week 4.
Matchup to Avoid
Colorado Rockies – @ PHI (3), vs SEA (3)
Coming into this season there were three things everyone understood to be true. The Rockies lineup was weak and would struggle to score runs, and the Phillies and Mariners have two of the best starting rotations in baseball. Don’t let the Mariners’ recent struggles in their rotation fool you, they’re still dominant.
The Colorado Rockies are the first team to be ELIMINATED from playoff contention according to Fangraphs pic.twitter.com/r2GIrDK3bj
— Addison (@YankeeWRLD) April 8, 2024
This season, the Rockies’ 25.8% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate and 82 wRC+ are all bottom-seven in the league. They’re even worse away from Coors, where they start the week. Starting on the road and ending at home with two games against Luis Castillo and George Kirby is a recipe for disaster. Avoid all Rockies this week.
Player to Avoid
Nolan Jones started really cold and we all attributed it to the fact the Rockies played their first stretch of games on the road. It felt like his luck would turn around when he made it back to the safety of Coors Field. It hasn’t. Since returning home, he’s hitting just .221 with zero home runs and a 40.7% strikeout rate.
Philadelphia (17.7%) and Seattle (16.4%) are both in the top eight in terms of K-BB rate this season. Against lefties like Jones, Seattle is even better (18.4%). It will be another rough week for Jones, even with half of his games being played at Coors. You’re better off leaving him on the bench.
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