Every passing week provides a clearer picture of what the season could look like for some players. Injuries, playing time and the good and bad stat lines reveal themselves. This week, I have a total of six buy-low/sell-high players.
- Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Start/Sit Lineup Advice
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice (Week 3)
Buy Low
Every league has some nervous owners who could overreact about certain players. Nick Castellanos owners are waiting for him to help carry their lineup to victory. Perhaps the waiting is getting to be too much for them. The outfield position is weak and Castellanos, even with the early struggles, still has name appeal. Castellanos is currently hitting .114 and has zero home runs. He’s also batting at the bottom of the lineup, which isn’t great, but it’s a good lineup. Injuries or lack of production from other players can easily change that.
His worst batting average in the last three seasons was over .263 — in 2022 when he only hit 13 home runs. He rebounded last year, hitting .272 with 29 home runs. Currently, his walk rate is about twice as high as his average for past seasons in March/April. His strikeout rate is the same, so it just looks like a slow start. I would pounce now before he starts to heat up.
Speaking of slow starts, Triston Casas strikes me (no pun intended) as a great buy-low candidate, especially in dynasty leagues. He’s currently hitting .237 with just one home run. Boston is batting him in the middle of the lineup, so I would expect those numbers to increase as he gets more at-bats. His strikeout rate is in the mid-20s, and that’s about right, but the home runs should come. We should be looking at a .250 hitter with 30 home runs. Everyone is getting excited about Boston’s pitching but don’t forget about the hitters. They are young and exciting with lots of potential. He’s rostered in around 70% of leagues. That ownership will increase.
I have been a fan of Cody Bradford since he was pitching in the Pacific Coast League (PCL). He wasn’t a top prospect for Texas and his job in the starting rotation is questionable because of the addition of Michael Lorenzen. Bradford kept the damage in check in the hitting-friendly PCL league. He also had a nice stretch where he kept his ERA under 2.00. That’s when I first took notice. Bradford has a 2.13 ERA, two wins and 10 Ks in 12.1 innings. The strikeouts are not great but he pitches for Texas and should always be in a position for a win. With all the pitching injuries this season, it might not be a bad idea to acquire a pitcher like Bradford. Yes, he might be replaced in the rotation, but he can give you innings as a long reliever and/or be a spot starter. Both situations can provide you with wins.
Sell High
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (OF – ARI)
It’s tough to trade an outfielder hitting the ball this well. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is hitting .298 with three home runs. He has 12 RBIs and 10 runs. He is hitting third in the lineup between Corbin Carroll and Christian Walker. So why move him?
Gurriel has never played in more than 145 games, he hit a career-high 24 home runs last season and has never had a 90 RBI season. He also contributes single-digit stolen bases, at best. These numbers are not terrible but you need to consider what people are seeing right now — a .300 hitter with 30+ home runs on a good hitting team. I highly doubt Gurriel can obtain those numbers. Let other owners chase those numbers and swap him with something that you need, assuming you don’t need outfielder depth.
The third base position isn’t as weak as it once was. Max Muncy doesn’t have the same appeal as he once did but is still rostered in over 80% of leagues. He did hit 36 bombs last year and had over 105 RBIs. He also plays for the Dodgers. I understand the appeal but Muncy is getting older and hasn’t played in over 140 games in the last three seasons. He also has a high 20% strikeout rate in the last three seasons. Currently, it’s over 40%. He’s hitting over .270 with only one home run. I would see if an owner were interested in chasing past Muncy stats and swap him with something you need or at least for an interesting prospect.
I have to admit that the idea of trading a top pitcher seems crazy. But maybe do it now before it’s too late. Greene hasn’t pitched over 125 innings since 2022. Can we expect not only a healthy season but also 150 good innings? He has a 2.53 ERA and over a 10.00 K/9 rate. Remember, Greene pitches in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in MLB. That ERA will rise but he will also have the strikeouts. I would expect to see some bad starts this season and an ERA closer to 4.00, if not over.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s a good pitcher but this is about the return you could get right now. I would consider some trade offers now before he has a bad start or two and owners trying to lowball you.
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