Welcome back to the best weekly column on the internet, as we enter week 4 of the fantasy baseball season. We are gaining on some useful sample sizes now, as plate discipline stats are beginning to stabilize for everyday players.

Useful approximate stabilization rates for hitters:

• Strikeout rate: 50-60 PAs (this week)
• Walk rate: 120 PAs (around mid-May)
• Contact rate: 100 PAs (early May)
• EVs: 40 BIP (next week, roughly)
• GB / FB rate: 80 BIP (early May)
• ISO: 160 ABs (Late May)
• Slugging: 310-320 Abs (Early July)
• OBP: 460 PAs (Late July / Early August)
• BABIP / BA: 900-ish PAs (roughly 1.5 seasons)

Approximate stabilization rates for pitchers:

• Strikeout rate: 15-20 innings (this week for SP)
• Walk rate: 40 innings (Mid-May for SP, 1/2 season for RP)
• EVs: 60-65 innings (June for SP, full season for RP)
• Stuff+: about 80 pitches (already stabilized, even for many RP at this point)

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Fantasy Baseball Roundup

A.L. Lineup & Roster Notes

• Baltimore Orioles:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Jackson Holliday got the call and is hitting 9th in the lineup
    • Colton Cowser has won over the strong side of a LF platoon with Austin Hays and is not disappointing with a 10/24 start to the season, including 5 doubles and a homer and hit second on Friday, keeping the hits coming.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • I would sell Tyler Wells if you can, while he looks great so far and most of the under the hood metrics back it up – he has a 6.53 xERA and has a .261 BA against vs. two teams that aren’t necessarily known for offense (@ PIT and v LAA) in good pitching environments.
    • Kyle Bradish started a rehab assignment and John Means is tracking for a Late April / Early May return.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Craig Kimbrel looks phenomenal to start the season. He’s the closer, set in stone… despite the velocity drop Thursday night (it was cold).
• Boston Red Sox:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Tyler O’Neil is hitting second, as Rafael Devers sat out again with a shoulder injury and is looking like his 2021 self hitting .316/.469/.789 with 6 homers and a drastically improved walk rate to date.
    • Cedanne Rafaela looks pretty rough at the plate, I would avoid for now.
    • Reese McGuire seems to be the primary catcher to Wong and is running with the role going 8/33 with 2 homers to begin his season, however he has had some good BABIP luck.
    • The Red Sox could really use Vaughn Grissom after the Trevor Story injury, as David Hamilton is starting at SS and Rafaela could get some of those reps.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Cooper Criswell might be the guy to replace Pivetta in the rotation. This pitching depth was slammed early and it’s a wonder how a guy like Trevor Bauer can still be unsigned.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Kenley Jansen has yet to allow an earned run this season despite an over 30% walk rate. He needs to reign in the control before the walks begin to haunt him. I would consider selling despite the strikeout stuff also being there, especially with how many injuries the Red Sox are getting hit with.
• Chicago White Sox:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Robbie Grossman is leading off for what might be the worst lineup in baseball right now… gross, man.
    • Gavin Sheets is a nice deep league buy, hitting third with a 9/27 start to the season with 2 homers. It’s odd to see a team’s 3-hole hitter in a platoon.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Garrett Crochet looks legit through 18 innings, but his career high is 54 1/3 as a reliever in 2021. I can’t imagine he pitches more than 120 innings or so this year, if even.
    • Mike Soroka’s spring was a dream – he does not look good.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Michael Kopech is striking out the world with a 38.7% K rate, but he also has a 16% walk rate. The team is terrible, so I wouldn’t expect many saves despite the great stuff.
• Cleveland Guardians:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Tyler Freeman is starting in CF every day and hitting fifth, at least until Chase DeLauter comes up.
    • Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges are still in a platoon…. Again, Naylor has a career 96 wRC+ against lefties and Hedges has a career 46 wRC+ against lefties (even as a righty).
    • Josh Naylor and Bo Naylor hit a homer in the same inning on national siblings day, which is cool.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Tyler Beede or Xzavion Curry will likely replace Shane Bieber in the rotation until Gavin Williams is ready, likely in early May.
    • Stay away from Carlos Carrasco.
    • Triston McKenzie looks completely lost from his 2022 form.
    • Tanner Bibee‘s control is not getting the chases he should on the slider right now, because the fastball is down a tick and a half and is not being located as well as last year. If he finds that fastball, he should be solid.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Nothing new.
• Detroit Tigers:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Riley Greene is leading off now with Mark Canha hitting second with Parker Meadows moving back to seventh due to the struggles.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Kenta Maeda is only averaging 89 on his fastball, he might be toast.
    • Tarik Skubal looks even better than last year and 80.4% first pitch strike with an 18.3% swinging strike rate is insane.
    • I can’t continue resisting the Jack Flaherty comeback if he does it again… through two starts he has demonstrated elite control leading to his stuff really playing up.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Nothing new.
• Houston Astros:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Jose Abreu has been terrible and pushed back to 8th in the lineup, plus has been sitting out the last few days. Too bad Yordan can’t play first.
    • Jeremy Pena is showing a greatly improved hit tool with an 81.1% contact rate (up from 73.8% in 2023) and a zone contact of 98.1%.
    • Jake Meyers is really struggling on the others side with a 57.8% contact rate and terrible 21.1% swinging strike rate, so don’t be surprised if we see Joey Loperfido sooner rather than later.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • The Astros are going to have some pitching problems this year.
    • Spencer Arrighetti has bad command, I would stay away.
    • Hunter Brown looks broken and I’m not sure if this is something he can fix in-season… sadly it reminds me of Alek Manoah last year.
    • Ronnel Blanco has only a 9.6% K-BB rate and a 4.64 SIERA, sell high if you have him.
    • Cristian Javier has a 5.9% K-BB rate and a 5.44 SIERA, sell high if you have him.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Josh Hader has only 1 save in 6 appearances this season.
• Kansas City Royals:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Don’t worry about Maikel Garcia‘s batting average, he has a .231 BABIP.
    • Bobby Witt Jr. has an average EV of 100 MPH and a 25.6% barrel rate this year so far.
    • Vinnie Pasquantino has insane contact and plate skill metrics, the .225 BABIP is pulling him down, but don’t worry, he’s starting to get hot now! He’s also hitting the crap out of the ball, but he needs to start lifting it to find power as he has a 46.3% GB rate to start the season.
    • MJ Melendez has really cut down the Ks this year dropping the strikeout rate from 28.2% in 2023 to 17% in 2024, allowing the power to play. He has an 18.8% barrel rate and 93.7 average EV leading to 3 early homers.
    • Sell Nelson Velasquez if you can, he’s hitting the ball hard and has an inflated batting average to start the season thanks to a .478 BABIP, but his contact rate is a terrible 58.8% right now.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Cole Ragans has been really good and that’s with a .326 BABIP that should regress positively.
    • Brady Singer is back and the reason is he brought his four-seam fastball back. When he was good in 2022 he was primarily a sinker and slider and tried to do the same thing in 2023, but the league caught on. Now, he’s mixing in the fastball and everyone is swinging over it and mashing it into the ground. He has an 89% GB rate on the fastball so far.
    • Alec Marsh has bad stuff, but if he can keep the walk rate this low he can be a passable back end starter.
  • Pen Notes:
    • James McArthur has the closer role right now and should be even better than he has been, since he has a .429 BABIP weighing him down.
• Los Angeles Angels:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Why do people think Ron Washington is a good manager when Micky Moniak is hitting second and Logan O’Hoppe is still hitting eighth?
    • Free Mike Trout… his BABIP is .267 and he’s hitting .318/.400/.795, if his BABIP positively regresses to his career norm (.345), Trout would theoretically be hitting .396. He has a .477 ISO with 6 homers to start the season. The sad part is he only has 8 RBI and 8 runs.
    • Zach Neto needs to hit the ball harder to be successful.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Jose Soriano throws hard, but I’m not sure what to make of him yet… the sample size is too small.
    • Griffin Canning has regressed, with the fastball losing a couple ticks. He needs to stop throwing it so much and throw the slider more.
    • Tyler Anderson is not good, sell him if you can. He has a 9.8% K-BB rate and a 4.72 SIERA.
    • Reid Detmers looks elite. He has a 35.2% K-BB rate. He’s throwing more fastballs and changeups and the fastball is better this year with more vertical rise and spin.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Carlos Estevez has three saves, but is rolling with a 4.61 SIERA. He hasn’t walked anyone yet, which is keeping his luck rolling.
• Minnesota Twins:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Jose Miranda is back in the bigs and hitting fifth as the DH. I would stay away.
    • Buy Edouard Julien where you can, he has a .176 BABIP dragging him down.
    • Carlos Correa has a high .400 BABIP, but as that decreases his barrel rate should increase back to his career norms.
    • Alex Kirilloff is super post-hype at 26-years-old, but he’s finally healthy, he’s hitting third and is looking like someone who should hit 35 doubles over the season.
    • Byron Buxton looks terrible. He has a 58.5% contact rate, atrocious strikeout numbers and a lackluster 4% barrel rate.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Louie Varland has a 4.13 SIERA against his 9.00 ERA and really has to avoid the long ball.
    • Bailey Ober bounced back strong in his second start against the Dodgers… if you can get him cheap because of the bad first start – go for it!
  • Pen Notes:
    • Jax still appears to be the temp closer, even though he only has one save. Steven Okert also has one save.
• New York Yankees:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Volpe greatly increased his contact rate since last year from 73.8% to 88.4% and decreased his swinging strike rate from 12.5% to 4.5% so far this season. If these changes stick or even increase half-way, Volpe could end up as the best leadoff hitter in baseball. He hit leadoff on Wednesday for the first time this season.
    • Under the hood Stanton doesn’t look much better than last year, except that he has had much better BABIP luck.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Carlos Rodon still does not look “back,” with an 8.7% K-BB rate and 4.84 SIERA.
    • Luis Gil still has bad control, so fighting the bad control with his excellent stuff is something he will always battle. Be weary the only 50% first pitch strike rate and his inability to create whiffs outside of the zone.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Nothing new.
• Oakland Athletics:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Zac Gelof is basically doing what I expected with only a 62.4% contact rate and a 17.5% swinging strike rate, but he still has 2 homers and 2 steals – so the tools are carrying him.
    • Shea Langeliers it the only other guy worth rostering in this lineup, with 4 homers and a 19.2% barrel rate, while the .182 BABIP should positively regress even for him to increase his batting average closer to .240 or .250.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Sell Paul Blackburn if you can and his .154 BABIP with his 4.09 SIERA.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Mason Miller is rocking a 30% K-BB rate, 2.18 SIERA along with a 19.8% swinging strike rate. Could he be a top five closer already?
• Seattle Mariners:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Julio Rodriguez is really struggling to begin the season with a decreased contact rate and deceased barrel rate. He’s still hitting the ball hard, but right now the tools aren’t out-playing the bad metrics.
    • Jorge Polanco is also in a funk with a decreased contact rate from 77.2% to 70.2% along with fellow newcomer Mitch Garver who is suffering from a drop in power.
    • Mitch Haniger is their best player right now as he looks like he’s back to his 2018 / 2019 form.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Buy low on George Kirby who has a 16.4% K-BB rate and 3.90 SIERA against his 8.16 ERA.
    • Logan Gilbert has taken things to an entirely new level with a 26% K-BB rate and 2.86 SIERA.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Munoz has had control issues this young season with a 21.7% BB rate, leading to a terrible 5.32 SIERA. He’s been lucky so far that his BABIP is only .100.
• Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Richie Palacios is in a platoon and still hitting third with both Lowes out (you can only do that in writing).
    • Isaac Paredes is keeping the dream rolling with 4 homers from the cleanup spot despite only pulling 42% of balls in play.
    • Amed Rosario is showing increased contact stills and could hit .280 if they hold up.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Aaron Civale is rocking a 21.2% K-BB rate and 3.32 SIERA.
    • Zach Eflin is fourth in pitching+, buy low if you can.
    • Ryan Pepiot is keeping the Rays pitching machine rolling with a 22.7% K-BB rate and 3.13 SIERA.
    • Zack Littel is a solid back end fantasy starter with a 15.6% K-BB rate and 3.90 SIERA.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Nothing new.
• Texas Rangers:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Evan Carter is hitting third now and is being weighed down by a .200 BABIP.
    • Wyatt Langford‘s contact and plate skills look elite, but he’s hitting too many fly balls and not enough liners, the launch angle is off.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Cody Bradford is making it happen by avoiding walks, but there should be some regression back to his 3.66 SIERA from his 1.40 ERA.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Robertson should be closing, not LeClerc. Robertson has a 3.32 SIERA and LeClerc has a 6.59 SIERA.
• Toronto Blue Jays:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Buy Vladimir Guerro Jr. low if you can, he’s hitting the ball hard, but getting held back by a .200 BABIP.
    • Bo Bichette is on the same plan,
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Chris Bassit is getting rocked by a .374 BABIP and has an abnormally high BB rate for him, so keep an eye on that.
    • Yusei Kikuchi is rolling, he has truly found himself in Toronto.
    • Buy Kevin Gausman low if you can, the velo is back and he has a .406 BABIP against on the season.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Chad Green has 2 saves, but only a 9.1% K-BB rate – I would stay away.

N.L. Lineup & Roster Notes

• Arizona Diamondbacks:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Gabriel Moreno is showing increased contact and plate skills, he could hit .300.
    • Don’t stress on Corbin Carroll, while he is hitting the ball on the ground too much and not hitting it hard enough, he still has a .233 BABIP grinding him down.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Brandon Pfaadt looked rough against the Cardinals Friday night, however he had a 25% K-BB rate and 2.58 SIERA before the start.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Kevin Ginkel has 2 saves and a 25% K-BB rate with a 2.48 SIERA. It’s possible he could hold on to the closer role, even when Sewald returns if he keeps pitching this well.
• Atlanta Braves:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Acuna is off to a rough start, in J Rod like fashion with a contact rate down from 83.1% in 2023 to 69.4% in 2024 so far. He has not yet barreled a ball and has a 55% GB rate.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Max Fried looks pretty rough to start the season with a 6.3% K-BB rate and a 4.47 SIERA, but a .524 BABIP against is partially to blame.
    • Charlie Morton looks bad at age 40, with a 6.4% K-BB rate and 5.05 SIERA.
    • Sell Reynaldo Lopez high if you can, he has a 4.23 SIERA against his 0.75 ERA.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Raisel Iglesias has two saves, but has not looked good as he only has an 11.1% K-BB rate.
• Chicago Cubs:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Bellinger’s contact rates are down from 2023, but the batting average drop is due to a .194 BABIP and he will positively regress.
    • Michael Busch is looking solid with an improved plate approach from last year and a 14.8% barrel rate.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Shota Imanaga looks like an ace with a 34.3% K-BB rate and 3.03 SIERA to begin his MLB career and the second start was against the Dodgers, so he’s no slouch.
    • Ben Brown is looking good with a 16.3% K-BB rate and 3.62 SIERA, he should have been starting last year.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Adbert Alzolay picked up where he left off in 2023, I don’t think we need to worry about him being a fluke.
• Cincinnati Reds:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Will Benson hitting second and Elly De La Cruz 6th is silly at this point. He’s all tools, but the tools are still pushing him to a .318/.375/.659 slash with 4 homers and 6 steals.
    • Spender Steer should also be hitting higher in the lineup, though if he’s hitting cleanup, I’m okay with it. He’s running an increased contact rate from 78.3% in 2023 to 86.5% in 2024 along with a much higher barrel rate at 11.1%.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Hunter Greene continues to impress so far this year with a 21.9% K-BB rate and 3.21 SIERA. As long as he can limit the walks and homers, he’s going to be good.
    • Nick Lodolo is scheduled to start on Saturday and the Reds are stretching to a 6 man rotation.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Keep an eye on Alexis Diaz. He’s off to a rough start with a 4.2% K-BB rate and 4.77 SIERA.
• Colorado Rockies:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Nolan Jones was moved back to 6th as he’s struggling with a 40.4% K rate, even though his chase rate and swing rate have improved… therefore some of the strikeouts might be due to bad umpire calls. He did homer Friday night and it might be the start of a break from his slump.
    • Sell this Ezequiel Tovar start as it’s boosted by a .438 BABIP, along with diminished contact skills and plate skills from 2023.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Stay away.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Stay away.
• Los Angeles Dodgers:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • James Outman isn’t doing anything different from last year, he’s just been unlucky.
    • I would be on the Andy Pages watch if Jayson Heyward weren’t coming back soon, Chris Taylor has been terrible.
    • Miguel Vargas watch should also be on, as Gavin Lux has not been much better than Taylor.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • If you can get Bobby Miller low, he has a 24% K-BB rate and 3.07 SIERA.
    • It’s halfway through the Friday night games at the time of this writing and Yoshi Yamamoto is getting hit up by San Diego. Don’t be concerned, it’s one start.
    • Gavin Stone is a buy low, like Miller with a 17.1% K-BB rate and 3.79 SIERA against a 7.88 ERA.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Evan Phillips already has 4 saves and looks better than ever.
• Miami Marlins:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Jake Burger has continued where he left off after a rough spring.
    • Josh Bell is getting crushed by a .216 BABIP.
    • Talking about bad BABIPs, Jazz Chisholm Jr. has a .214 BABIP against his career .304 despite improved contact and plate skills – despite this he still has 2 homers and 3 steals.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Jesus Luzardo was rocked last time out, walking 5 at the New York Yankees.
    • AJ Puk has been incredibly bad and should be removed from the rotation when Edward Cabrera returns.
    • Max Meyer has arguably been the Marlins second best starter this season, despite a lack of Ks with a 9.8% K-BB rate and 4.29 SIERA.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Anthony Bender might take this closer job back, Tanner Scott has been terrible.
• Milwaukee Brewers:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Joey Ortiz should be playing 3B every day, not Oliver Dunn.
      • Ortiz is slashing .360/.448/.480.
    • Christian Yelich is looking like the early favorite for NL MVP.
    • Jackson Chourio has dropped down to 8th in the lineup after struggling over the last week.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • DL Hall has been meh and Wade Miley is back in the rotation, replacing Jake Junis as Aaron Ashby looks to catch his bearings in AAA.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Abner Uribe had three saves prior to this week and has not added one, as he has only had one appearance over the last week.
• New York Mets:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Starling Marte is having a bounce back season with a .271 average and 3 steals thus far.
    • Francisco Lindor has an .089 BABIP. How many mirrors did this dude break this offseason?
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Severino is rocking a 22.9% K-BB rate and 2.74 SIERA.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Nothing new.
• Philadelphia Phillies:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Trea Turner must not like the cold as he’s off to another slow power start in 2024, relying on his wheels for all his production.
    • Bryce Harper is battling a .200 BABIP.
    • Brandon Marsh worked his way out of the platoon and is slashing .333/.357/.641, boosted by a .450 BABIP. If you can sell him high, do it.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Where did this Spencer Turnbull come from? 29.3% K-BB rate and 2.18 SIERA… he’s the James Paxton of the 2023 first half.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Jeff Hoffman scored a save against the Cardinals on Wednesday. This might be a righty / lefty closer situation with Jose Alvarado.
• Pittsburgh Pirates:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Sell Oneil Cruz off that strong spring. He’s running a .433 BABIP and hits the ball on the ground way too much.
    • What happened to flyball Ke’Bryan Hayes from last year and this spring? Is it the cold? He’s hitting the ball on the ground over 60% of the time.
    • Jack Suwinski has improved his contact rate from 72% in 2023 to 83.7% in 2024, but the EV numbers are down (possibly also due to cold weather) and his BABIP is a killer .206.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Mitch Keller is simply the king of the Toby’s. Sell him if you can get top 40 SP value for him, Martin Perez might be in the same tier.
    • Jared Jones might be a top 5 SP in baseball if he keeps this up… I would bump him into my top 25-30 pretty easy from this point going forward. He has a 31.9% K-BB rate and 2.25 SIERA, everything under the hood looks legit.
  • Pen Notes:
    • David Bednar is money, if anyone is selling he has a 21.7% K-BB rate and 2.01 SIERA.
• San Diego Padres:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Fernando Tatis Jr. is the one who would give Yelich the run for his money for early MVP, killing it despite a low BABIP.
    • Jake Cronenworth is on pace for his best season with a 17% barrel rate.
    • Ha-Seong Kim is barreling the ball more and has better contact numbers so far than 2023, so if someone is down him due to the .256 BABIP, go get him.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Joe Musgrove has a .418 BABIP against and should be fine moving forward, even though he needs to work on finishing off batters. A 30.6% CSW portends to more Ks than a 19.8% K rate.
    • Dylan Cease is tracking back to his 2021 and 2022 seasons.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Robert Suarez has been rock steady.
• San Francisco Giants:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Jorge Soler has a .200 BABIP, everything else looks fine and he’s generally a slow starter anyway.
    • Thairo Estrada looks rough, I would move on in 12 team leagues.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Kyle Harrison is going to be volatile all year, kind of like Blake Snell. Harrison has a 20.6% K-BB rate and 3.52 SIERA through three starts though and is looking good.
    • Blake Snell had a nice first start with the Giants even though he only went 3 innings. The Giants have one of the better rotations in baseball.
    • Jordan Hicks has been bullet proof so far as a Giants starter.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Nothing new.
• St. Louis Cardinals:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • Lars Nootbaar is back in the lineup, hitting sixth on Friday with a long bomb.
    • Brendan Donovan looks great and is hitting more XBH this season.
    • Paul Goldschmidt‘s contact rate is down from 75.4% to 64.2% in 2024.
    • Arenado’s power numbers are off and he’s hitting the ball on the ground too much, but he hit his first homer on Friday and it might be the start of production.
    • Ivan Herrera should be hitting every day. He has a 21.4% barrel rate with insane EVs.
    • Masyn Winn has a 35% line drive rate to start the season without any barrels and we are seeing a high end contact rate of 87.5%.
    • Jordan Walker has an average EV of 93, but is hitting the ball on the ground at a 54.8% rate and has a .226 BABIP.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • Sonny Gray had a great first start for the Cardinals, expect him to pitch closer to his normal workload (90-100 pitches) in his next start and then moving forward there should be no limits to his standard workload.
    • Lance Lynn has a 19.7% K-BB rate and 3.70 SIERA through three starts. If he can reign in the homers allowed, he could be a very solid pitcher in 2024.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Ryan Helsley and Gio Gallegos both look back on their game after a rough 2023.
• Washington Nationals:
  • Lineup Notes:
    • CJ Abrams is chasing a little bit more this season, however it has resulted in a much higher barrel rate of 13.3% thus far leading to more power.
    • Lane Thomas has been very unlucky this year with a .220 BABIP despite an 87% contact rate. The good news is I was right about the wheels from this spring and he already has 6 steals.
    • Don’t panic on Keibert Ruiz, he has a .200 BABIP.
  • Rotation Notes:
    • McKenzie Gore is up two ticks on his average fastball velo at 97 MPH, resulting in more Ks. The key for Gore is going to be to avoid walks, he only has a 47.8% F-strike.
  • Pen Notes:
    • Kyle Finnegan has 2 saves and Hunter Harvey has 0. Kyle Finnegan has a 0% K-BB rate and 5.73 SIERA, while Hunter Harvey has a 40% K-BB rate and 0.97 SIERA. You know which one to hold / grab and which one to sell.

Injury Notes

• SP Spencer Strider (Braves) – Strider underwent season-ending elbow surgery on Friday.  
• SP Framber Valdez (Astros) – Framber hit the IL with elbow inflammation and could miss some significant time.
• SP Nick Pivetta (Red Sox) – Nick Pivetta hit the IL with a right flexor stain and should be back when first eligible in 2 weeks.
• 3B Rafael Devers (Red Sox) – Devers is DTD with shoulder soreness, but it could turn into an IL stint.
• SS Trevor Story (Red Sox) – Story is out for the season
• OF Luis Robert (White Sox) – Robert is out until early May with a Grade 2 hip strain.
• 3B Yoan Moncada (White Sox) – Is out for 3-6 months with a strained adductor (groin), which might bring his White Sox career to a close.
• OF Eloy Jimenez (White Sox) – Jimenez also had a groin strain, but should be back soon as he’s ramping up some baseball activities, we should see him back by late April / early May. The White Sox need to stretch before playing.
• 2B Brandon Lowe (Rays) – Hit the IL with a Grade 1 oblique strain, which has an average IL time of 4 weeks.
• SS Carlos Correa (Twins) – Left Friday night’s game with an oblique strain… surprise, surprise.
• OF Brent Rooker (Athletics) – Rooker hit the IL with a cartilage injury with no time table for a return.

Tim’s Top 5 Waiver Adds (12 Team Leagues)

NOTE: Under 50% Owned (CBS)

Last Week: OF Lars Nootbaar (Cardinals, 47%), 2B / 3B Michael Busch (Cubs, 41%), SP Logan Allen (Guardians, 48%), OF Jose Siri (Rays, 36%), OF Jake Fraley (Reds, 47%)

NOTE: I have a goal to avoid repeats this year, so if there is a repeat on the list, there is a major reason to grab them.

1. OF Lars Nootbaar (Cardinals) 49% – Nootbaar is my repeat in the 12 team for the week, go get him if he is still not owned in your league. Nootbaar is back in action, with a rocket homer in his first game back Friday night and should resume his duties as the three hole hitter. He projects out as a 20/15 type player with a .260-.270 batting average.
2. 1B,OF Alex Kirilloff (Twins) 46% – Kiriloff continues to reel me in again as I promoted him from 15 team league adds to 12 teamers, still only 26-years-old, he’s hitting third in the lineup and has a .324/.385/.647 slash with an increased power profile including a 13.3% barrel rate and 92.4 average EV to start the season. The biggest concern is he is not playing against lefties, but with Correa going down now they may not be able to afford to platoon him and could try him in the lineup every day.
3. SP Max Meyer (Marlins) 43% – Meyer is not generating Ks yet with only a 17.1% K rate, however he has a 30.9% CSW overall, which tells me he’s just not finishing guys off for the Ks. Meyer is rocking a 58.1% GB rate and he pitches in Miami, so he seems like a good bet to keep damage to a minimum.
4. OF Mitch Haniger (Mariners) 39% – Haniger is slashing .261/.346/.435 from the 4 hole for the Mariners. The contact rate is up from 73.6% to 79.5% and BB% is up to a career high 11.5% thus far. The only thing to watch is the average EVs are down, if he can find consistency in his hard hit rate, we might be back in 2019 Hanige mode.
5. RP David Robertson (Rangers) 33% – LeClerc has been very bad and Robertson has been good enough. It’s that simple, he’s close to grabbing that closer role from LeClerc who is kind of the incumbent, but was not that great last season either.

Tim’s Top 5 Waiver Adds (15 Team Leagues)

NOTE: Under 30% Owned (CBS)

Last Week: 1B / OF Alex Kirilloff (Twins, 29%), SP Andrew Heaney (Rangers, 26%), SP Ryan Weathers (Marlins, 12%), OF Joc Pederson (Diamondbacks, 25%), 3B Brett Baty (Mets, 24%)

1. OF Mark Canha (Tigers) 24% – Canha moved up to second in the order for the Tigers between Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson. Canha is slashing .243/.404/.541 and is especially a great add in points or OBP leagues. The batting average should rise with a .240 BABIP holding him down and he’s hitting the ball hard with a 14.3% barrel rate and 91.3 average EV.
2. SP Ben Brown (Cubs) 12% – Finding a good starter is rough right now in any league with all the injuries and Brown through three appearances (only one start) has looked electric. The innings will build up the longer he sticks around and he has killer stuff. As long as he can keep the walk numbers down, he could be the third best pitcher for the Cubs.
3. 2B / 3B Joey Ortiz (Brewers) 10% – Ortiz has been getting more PT, as he should. He’s better than Oliver Dunn and has an 87.2% contact rate, 13.8% walk rate and some power / speed tools. As long as the Brewers give him an opportunity, Ortiz should be a very solid deep league MI.
4. RP Jeff Hoffman (Phillies) 14% – Hoffman nailed down a save, rather than Jose Alvarado earlier this week and he has a 15.4% K-BB rate with a 3.40 SIERA, which isn’t great, but it’s much better than Alvarado thus far in 2024. Of course Orion Kerkering could take this role when he’s back, so keep an eye on him as well.
5. C Ivan Herrera (Cardinals) 18% – Herrera is hitting the crap out of the ball and the batting average should improve with only a .240 BABIP. The big question with Herrera is how much playing time he will get with Contreras back (even though he’s obviously not fully healthy yet). Herrera has hit so well, he should be in the lineup every game against lefties and could catch once or twice a week as well, at a minimum.

Tim’s Top 10 Re-Draft Prospects (not promoted yet)

1. 3B Junior Caminero (Rays)

2023 A+/AA: .324/.384/.591, 31 HR, 5 SB

2023 MLB: .235/.278/.353, 1 HR

2024 AAA: .333/.429/.583, 1 HR, 1 SB

Age: 20

ETA: Early May

fScores: 103 fContact, 74 fDiscipline, 113 fPower, 97 fSpeed, 57 fDurability

Comp: Ronald Acuna w/o the wheels

Prime Skills: Probably the quickest bat speed in the minors, the hit tool is ridiculous and now the power is catching up. He could be one of the best hitters in baseball sooner rather than later.

Ranking Explanation: Caminero is on his way back into the AAA Rays lineup, maybe as soon as this upcoming week. With the deadline passing for service time, we could see him up with the Rays in a couple weeks.

2. SP Paul Skenes (Pirates)

2023 College: 122 2/3 IP, 209 Ks, 20 BBs, 1.69 ERA, 0.75 WHIP

2023 Rk/A/AA: 6 2/3 IP, 10 Ks, 2 BBs, 5.40 ERA, 1.05 WHIP

2024 AAA: 9 1/3 IP, 19 Ks, 2 BBs, 0.00 ERA, 0.64 WHIP

Age: 21

ETA: Late April

fScores: 45 fPDurability, 111 fStuff, 104 fControl, 112 fERA

Comp: Justin Verlander

Prime Skills: Skenes is more curve than slider, but his fastball is insane and his command is impeccable, especially the fastball. He throws high heat and has shown he’s durable and consistent. He has a good shot to spend most of 2024 at the major league level.

Ranking Explanation: Skenes is the best pitching prospect in baseball already (unless you count Yoshi Yamamoto – which I think is cheating). He’s spitting absolute fire and looks like he could be a top 40 SP from the get-go once he’s promoted. They’re building him up slowly, but he is ready for the bigs once he is working 5 innings.

3. 2B / OF Joey Loperfido (Astros)

2023 A+/AA/AAA: .278/.370/.510, 25 HR, 27 SB

2024 AAA: .320/.390/.880, 9 HR, 1 SB
Age: 25

ETA: Late April

fScores: 111 fContact, 96 fDiscipline, 93 fPower, 118 fSpeed, 76 fDurability

Comp: Christian Yelich (without the peak years)

Prime Skills: He has all fields gap power and can hit oppo tacos with his bat speed. He has very good speed to go with a great hit tool and very good plate skills. He would be a killer top of the lineup guy, but in Houston, he’s probably looking at super utility duties.

Ranking Explanation: Loperfido is ready for the big league club, but it seems like the Astros don’t want to promote him to be a super UTIL guy, they want to wait until he has full time ABs. Jake Meyers has been bad, so Loperfido could be closer than expected and is absolutely raking.

4. SP Christian Scott (Mets)

2023 A/A+/AA: 87 2/3 IP, 107 Ks, 12 BBs, 2.47 ERA, 0.86 WHIP

2024 AAA: 9 IP, 19 Ks, 1 BBs, 4.00 ERA, 0.83 WHIP

Age: 25

ETA: Early May

fScores: N/A

Comp: Zack Wheeler super light (basically a Wheeler fastball / slider without the other pitches)

Prime Skills: Scott has a rising fastball he just smokes guys with up in the zone as a big righty that averages 95-96 on the pitch. Scott has fantastic command and pins the fastball wherever he wants it, playing it off a slider, but the fastball is his K pitch.

Ranking Explanation: This dude is underrated as a college guy who spent time in the pen in 2022 and had an excellent year in 2023 as a full time starter. He has a full time starters arsenal, but needs to build up the innings. I think he’s right behind Skenes in call up order.

5. OF James Wood (Nationals)

2023 A+/AA: .262/.353/.520, 26 HR, 18 SB

2024 AAA: .441/.558/.794, 2 HR, 2 SB

Age: 21

ETA: Mid May

fScores: 104 fContact, 103 fDiscipline, 117 fPower, 126 fSpeed, 58 fDurability

Comp: Lefty Aaron Judge

Prime Skills: Light tower power from the left side of the plate. He has a home run swing if we’ve ever seen one and has the biggest power upside of the top 10, even more than Wyatt Langford and Junior Caminero due to the huge 6′ 7″ frame.

Ranking Explanation: Wood has MLB read tools, but he does have holes in his swing due to his enormous size and needs to find more consistency before he’s ready for the full time transition to the big leagues in order to avoid the up and down. Wood is probably ready, the Nats can’t keep him down all year.

6. OF Chase DeLauter (Guardians)

2023 Rk/A+/AA: .355/.417/.528, 5 HR, 6 SB

2024 AA: .143/.333/.190, 0 HR, 0 SB

Age: 22

ETA: Late May

fScores: 106 fContact, 122 fDiscipline, 113 fPower, 82 fSpeed, 28 fDurability.

Comp: A raw, LIGHT Bryce Harper (or lefty Matt Holliday)

Prime Skills: He’s shown a really strong hit tool and has some unrealized power in his small sample size at the minor league level. The pull power from his college days is tantalizing. Coming off injury, we just need to see some health from this doubles machine.

Ranking Explanation: DeLauter starting the year in AA, rather than AAA could mean they intend to keep him down longer than expected or necessary, or it could mean the Guardians want to keep him close to home. We won’t know until he moves up a level to either AAA or the MLB, but his early struggles are not helping his case.

7. SP Nick Nastrini (White Sox)

2023 AA/AAA: 114 2/3 IP, 139 Ks, 54 BBs, 4.08 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

2024 AAA: 7 IP, 13 Ks, 3 BBs, 7.71 ERA, 2.14 WHIP

Age: 24

ETA: Mid April

fScores: 66 fPDiscipline, 114 fStuff, 92 fControl, 109 fERA

Comp: Jose Berrios / Jack Flaherty mash up with worse control

Prime Skills: Nastrini has a classic four pitch mix of fastball, changeup, slider and curve and all are average to above average offerings, without one pitch that really stands out. I like the change and the curve. The change some movement and he mixes it in well and uses it for punch outs, whereas the curve is the nastiest pitch, while the fastball is kind of just average.

Ranking Explanation: Nastrini had a rough first outing, but should be up very soon with the big league club and proximity and getting MLB playing time is half the battle in these rankings.

8. SP Ricky Tiedemann (Blue Jays)

2023 Rk/A/AA/AAA: 44 IP, 82 Ks, 23 BBs, 3.68 ERA, 1.23 WHIP

2024 AAA: 8 IP, 10 Ks, 9 BBs, 5.63 ERA, 2.00 WHIP

Age: 22

ETA: Mid May

fScores: 49 fPDurability, 121 fStuff, 96 fControl, 167 fERA

Comp: Good Andrew Heaney

Prime Skills: Tiedemann was a huge breakout last year and has a really nice fastball – slider combo. His changeup plays great off the slider, which is probably his best pitch. He’s a tunnel master who has a short arm / side arm funky delivery from the left side which makes his slider even tougher to pick up. He does have bullpen risk.

Ranking Explanation: Despite the pen risk, his stuff is pretty ridiculous and a ton of the pitching is so volatile that I’m still willing to rank a guy with killer stuff close to the majors higher than guys further away that look to be safer starters longterm. He needs to reign in the control before getting the call. Francis and Manoah are leaving the gate right open for him.

9. OF Jakob Marsee (Padres)

2023 A+/AA: .274/.413/.428, 16 HR, 46 SB

2024 AA: .111/.306/.296, 1 HR, 4 SB (.133 BABIP)

Age: 23

ETA: Late May

fScores: 95 fContact, 140 fDiscipline, 80 fPower, 197 fSpeed, 54 fDurability

Comp: Ripped Christian Yelich with more air on the ball

Prime Skills: Nice compact lefty swing with some reach, the dude has all fields power and hits around the yard, which will allow him to beat the shift. The speed is legit and he could reach for a number of 15-30 seasons in his prime with stellar plate skills.

Ranking Explanation: Marsee is starting in AA despite the chance of breaking camp with the big league club. If Tommy Pham signs with another team besides the Padres, it increases the chances Marsee is promoted once Profar begins to struggle.

10. SP Drew Thorpe (Padres):

2023 A+/AA: 139 1/3 IP, 182 Ks, 38 BBs, 2.52 ERA, 0.98 WHIP

2024 AA: 11 IP, 15 Ks, 2 BBs, 0.82 ERA, 0.73 WHIP

Age: 23

ETA: Late May 2024

fScores: fPDurability 61, 128 fStuff, 114 fControl, 134 fERA

Comp: George Kirby-light to Chris Paddack-ish

Prime Skills: Primarily a fastball, changeup guy (though the best attribute of the fastball is where he places it), Thorpe might remind Padres fans of former top Padres prospect Chris Paddack. He has a nice slider he mixes in between the two and has dominated the minors to date ala Mr. Paddack.

Ranking Explanation: Thorpe is looking great and I’m assuming he’s only in AA because they want him pitching to Quero. The big question will be how the fastball plays at the major league level, because it’s sub-par.

Honorable Mention: 1B Kyle Manzardo (Guardians), SS Colson Montgomery (White Sox), SP Cade Horton (Cubs), 1B/2B/3B Tyler Black (Brewers), SP Drew Thorpe (White Sox), SP Robby Snelling (Padres), 3B Coby Mayo (Orioles), OF Drew Gilbert (Mets), SP David Festa (Twins), SP Jacob Misiorowski (Brewers), SP Carson Whisenhunt (Giants), OF Andy Pages (Dodgers), SP Chase Petty (Reds), 2B/SS Jett Williams (Mets), OF Blake Dunn (Reds), SS Brooks Lee (Twins), SP Ty Madden (Tigers), SP Hurston Waldrep (Braves), 2B Thomas Saggesse (Cardinals), OF Dylan Crews (Nationals), SP Tekoah Roby (Cardinals), SP Chase Hampton (Yankees), SS Carson Williams (Rays), 2B/OF Luisangel Acuna, OF Sterlin Thompson (Rockies), OF Jordan Beck (Rockies), SP Mason Black (Mets), 1B Tyler Locklear (Mariners), SP Carlos F. Rodriguez (Brewers), 3B/OF Justyn Henry-Malloy, SP Cristian Mena (Diamondbacks), 2B Connor Norby (Orioles), SP Mick Abel (Phillies), SP David Vasil (Mets), SP Gordon Graceffo (Cardinals), SP Will Warren (Yankees), OF Jacob Melton (Astros), SP/RP Wilmer Flores (Tigers), 2B Justin Foscue (Rangers), SP Jake Eder (White Sox), SP Richard Fitts (Red Sox)

Graduated (this week): SS Jackson Holliday (Orioles), SP/RP Ben Brown (Cubs)

Graduated (this year): OF Wyatt Langford (Rangers), OF Jackson Chourio (Brewers), SS/OF Jackson Merrill (Padres), OF Victor Scott II (Cardinals), 2B/3B Colt Keith (Tigers), SP Jared Jones (Pirates), SS/3B Darrell Hernaiz (Athletics), 3B/OF Graham Pauley (Padres), RP Clayton Beeter (Yankees)

Moves I Made This Week

• • CBS Memorial Magazine League (12 Team 5×5 Roto):
    • N/A
  • CBS NL Only Analyst League (12 Team 5×5 Roto):
    • N/A
  • TGFBI (15 Team 5×5 Roto):
    • Added Dane Dunning for $9
    • Dropped Shane Bieber

• Fantasy Aceball Invitational (16 Team Ottoneu H2H Points):

• • • Added JoJo Romero for $1
    • Added Jose Butto for $1
    • Cut Jhony Brito for $1

• Ottoneu Podcaster’s League (12 Team Ottoneu 5×5 Roto):

• • N/A

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