Which players are enjoying an unsustainable hot streak right now? Which players are uncharacteristically cold? And, which have been receiving too much or too little luck of late?
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Each week in this article, players due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
Fantasy Baseball Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
Stats up to date through April 8, 2024
Players Due for Positive Regression
Gunnar Henderson (3B, SS – BAL)
Coming off Rookie-of-the-Year honors, big things are expected of Gunnar Henderson in 2024. The young slugger looked ready to roll right out of the gate, picking up a hit and a walk on Opening Day before a three-hit performance that included a homer and a triple in his second game of the season.
The production has largely dried up from Henderson since then, as he’s hit just .115 with seven strikeouts in 26 at-bats over the last seven games. Even with that, there’s not much reason to be concerned about a “sophomore slump” or anything at this point. During this recent slump, Henderson has still recorded a 91.1 EV and 40.0 Hard-Hit%, and a .105 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is ridiculous. Expect a course correction very soon.
Luis Castillo came into the season among the favorites to win the American League Cy Young. Three starts into the campaign, Castillo has yet to get through six full innings and he has allowed four earned runs in each outing. Over 15 2/3 innings, the three-time All-Star is lugging around a 6.89 ERA and 1.85 WHIP.
Not all of Castillo’s inflated numbers can be blamed on poor luck but he has experienced more than his share of bad breaks. His 24.0 K% is a slight tick below the last two years but still quite good. On top of that, his hard-hit rate (35.8%) is six points better than last season’s mark and would be his best since 2019. Despite all that, Castillo is dealing with an egregious .451 BABIP. He has to get back to missing more bats overall, but across-the-board improvement should be coming in short order.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Brice Turang is off to an excellent start — 7-for-14 over his first four games of the season and six stolen bases. Even though he did rip his first homer of the year along with a double Monday night, his return to Earth has already begun.
Turang has gone 4-for-15 since that blazing start with one additional steal. The speed is legit, as he stole 26 bases in 30 attempts as a rookie last year. However, Turang’s .379 AVG and 1.010 OPS will likely plummet in the coming days. While his 27.3 LD% is promising, his 21.7 Hard-Hit% ranks 11th-lowest among all qualifying hitters around the league. Yet, even with a sub-90 EV, Turang has benefitted from an outrageous .455 BABIP.
Perez was an All-Star just a couple of years ago, but, when looking over his long MLB career, that excellent 2022 campaign is certainly an outlier. The veteran lefty has mostly been a back-of-the-rotation innings eater throughout his 12+ seasons. Despite taking advantage of a pair of favorable matchups against the Marlins and Nationals to begin this season, there’s little early evidence to suggest Perez will be much more than that again in 2024.
Perez’s current 2.45 ERA covers up a 4.71 xFIP and sits alongside a lofty 1.55 WHIP. He has managed just eight strikeouts (16.3%) while issuing five walks (10.2%) and stranding an unsustainable 89.7% of baserunners so far. His 52.8 GB% is encouraging, but a 55.6 Hard-Hit% and 93.1 EV are not. Perez has been incredibly fortunate to allow only three earned runs to this point. Better lineups down the road are sure to make him pay.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros. He has been an analyst in the fantasy sports industry for the past decade, covering the NFL and MLB. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.