Which players are enjoying an unsustainable hot streak right now? Which players are uncharacteristically cold? And, which have been receiving too much or too little luck of late?
This weekly article highlights players who are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance to assist fantasy managers in viewing each one properly. Digging underneath the surface stats, we examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
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Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
Stats up to date through April 22, 2024
Players Due for Positive Regression
Bryce Harper blasted three homers in a game with the Reds on April 2. He followed that up a couple of days later with another three-hit effort that included a pair of doubles. Since then, it’s been frustrating for fantasy managers to keep him in the lineup daily.
Over his last 15 games, Harper has hit a meager .218 with a .632 OPS and just one homer. The two-time MVP is keeping the strikeouts in check (21.5%) and still drawing plenty of walks (13.8%), though. A sub-par 14.3 LD% has been the main contributor to the low AVG during this cold streak, but Harper has still produced a 47.6 Hard-Hit% and 91.6 mph EV.
Harper is presently away from the Phillies for a few days, as his wife gives birth to their third child. Once he returns, expect the .268 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and 5.9% HR/FB from his last 15 games to drastically improve. Harper’s career marks in those categories are .322 and 20.7%, respectively.
Charlie Morton turned in back-to-back lackluster efforts against division rivals earlier this month, as he allowed a combined 10 earned runs to the Mets and Marlins over 11 1/3 innings (7.94 ERA). The 40-year-old righty issued five free passes to the Mets on April 8. Even though he put up an 8-to-1 KBB over 5 2/3 frames in Miami, the Marlins plated six runs on seven hits off of Morton.
Despite all that, Morton had limited the Mets and Marlins to a 32.3 Hard-Hit% and 86.8 mph EV while inducing groundballs at a promising 48.4% clip. The metrics have been mostly encouraging and better results showed up in Morton’s most recent start opposite the defending champions.
Morton held the Rangers’ potent offense to two runs on just four hits and two walks with four strikeouts across six innings this past Saturday. His 4.70 ERA on the season sits in front of a much more appealing 3.40 xERA, so expect to see more positive outcomes from Morton. Pitching with the support of the Braves’ top-ranked offense (6.1 runs per game) is beneficial as well.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Josh Smith entered the season with the Rangers in a utility role, but the versatile 26-year-old has done a commendable job filling at the hot corner after Josh Jung‘s (wrist) early injury. Over 22 games this season, Smith has hit a cool .295 with a .403 OBP, 11 RBI and 10 runs across 72 plate appearances.
Compared to his first two seasons in the bigs, Smith’s strikeout rate (13.9%) has notably improved, as have his contact (84.1 Contact%, 92.5 Z-Contact%) and line-drive (28.0%) rates. Still, there’s been virtually no pop coming from his bat. Smith has yet to hit one out this season and has just four doubles with a 27.5 Hard-Hit% and a mere 84.8 mph EV.
There’s been marked improvements from Smith to be sure, but this is still a guy that posted a .191/.306/.287 slash line over his first 485 MLB plate appearances. His batted-ball profile does not support a fortunate .353 BABIP. The ability to work counts and draw walks is legitimate, but Smith has yet to show hardly any stolen-base potential at the highest level. Do not expect much from him moving forward.
After allowing only three earned runs across his first 25 2/3 innings (4 starts) of the campaign, Seth Lugo was bound to come back to Earth at some point. He did so this past Sunday against the Orioles’ loaded lineup, giving up four runs on nine hits and a walk while striking out just one over 5 1/3 frames. Still, that’s not an awful line for a showdown with the Orioles and Lugo’s ERA for the season stands at an excellent 2.03.
The most glaring blemish for Lugo is the lack of strikeouts. He recorded a solid 23.2 K% over 146 1/3 for the Padres last season, but that mark stands at just 11.1% through 31 frames in 2014. Keeping his walks in check and getting groundballs helped him tremendously through his first four outings. However, what helped him even more was two matchups with the dreadful White Sox, another with a mediocre Twins offense and one against the struggling Astros.
The Orioles exposed Lugo, as they tagged the right-hander for a couple of homers while posting a 56.5 HardHit% and 94.0 mph EV. Lugo only induced seven groundballs (30.4%) and allowed five barrels (21.7%). No pitcher will survive rates like that. Lugo has potential as a matchup-based streamer moving forward, but depending on start after start is not a great plan.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros. He has been an analyst in the fantasy sports industry for the past decade, covering the NFL and MLB. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.