Now that we are two weeks into the season – as I suggested last week – people are starting to care more about stats. My reach is no doubt becoming global. But numbers can be deceiving, and content creators will cherry-pick stats to drive preconceived narratives and opinions.

Which I will do now! Let’s get started.

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Fantasy Baseball by the Numbers

Of These Four Players, Which Is Not in the Top Three in xwOBA?

• Yordan Alvarez (OF – HOU)
• Bobby Witt Jr. (SS – KC)
• Brandon Nimmo (OF – NYM)
• Shohei Ohtani ( DH – LAD)

That is actually the order.

Shohei Ohtani is fourth behind Brandon Nimmo in xWOBA. Ohtani, is behind Nimmo in xWOBA. That is correct.

Yordan Alvarez being No. 1 is bananas.

Which of These Yordan Alvarez Stats Through 2024 Is a Lie?

• Alvarez has more singles and doubles combined than strikeouts
• Alvarez is leading the league in xWOBA
• Alvarez’s expected slugging is 1st in MLB, over .900
• Alvarez’s BABIP is sub .275, even though he is top five in barrel rate in 2024

Trick question:  They are all true.

Speaking of overreacting to two weeks, I am already taking an L on one of my predictions early in the year.

I thought Bobby Witt Jr. would not be worth a top-three pick because of his supporting cast. However, he has a 73% hard-hit rate, sports an OBP of .409 and is a demon on the bases. The guy really might be a generational player. Sorry, Bobby.

Pitchers With the Highest xWOBA in MLB (Min 100 Pitches) & the General Round They Were Drafted in (per ADP in a 12-Team League)

Can you guess the missing pitchers?

• No. 1: .554 (Third Round) – __________
• No. 2: .494 (11th Round) – __________
• No. 3: .459 (Undrafted) – Jon Gray (SP – TEX)
• No. 4: .452 (Undrafted) – Kyle Hendricks (SP – CHC)
• No. 5: .436 (Eighth Round) – __________

If you were the manager who drafted that pitcher in the third round, you know who I am talking about.

I’ll give you the answer key at the end.

In direct conflict with the health of my marriage, I dove into pitching stats over the summer and became fascinated by some of the stats out there. Sometimes, I feel like we miss the forest through the trees and hyper-focus on outcomes, and instead, we need to think about what makes a pitcher dominant:

• Perceived Velocity > 92 MPH
• Spin Rate > 2,300 RPM
• Extension off mound > 7 ft

If pitchers have any of these qualities, they would be in the top 10% in that category. But who has all of them combined?

I’ll give you the answer key at the end.

Just kidding, it is:

• Tyler Glasnow (SP – LAD)
• Bobby Miller (SP – LAD)

That’s it, that’s the whole list. And they are both Dodgers.

Now drop down extension off the mound to 6.5 feet (above average), and we can add:

• Carlos Rodon (SP – NYY)
• Hunter Greene (SP – CIN)
• Luis Gil (SP – NYY)

Now, let’s keep the 6.5-foot extension off the mound and the elite RPM, but they need to throw an average of 93.5 MPH.

Only one player matches that criteria:

• Luis Gil

I told you I would cherry-pick stats, but this one is interesting. I will be going after Gil in my leagues.

Random, but Garrett Crochet has an average fastball of 92 mph but a perceived velocity of 83 mph. How is that possible? That seems bad long term

Answer Key:

• No. 1: .554 (Third Round) – Kevin Gausman (SP – TOR)
• No. 2: .494 (11th Round) – Bailey Ober (SP – MIN)
• No. 3: .459 (Undrafted) – Jon Gray (SP – TEX)
• No. 4: .452 (Undrafted) – Kyle Hendricks (SP – CHC)
• No. 5: .436 (Eighth Round) – Joe Musgrove (SP – SD)

Onto week 3.

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