This article will be monthly and in two parts, one for Statcast risers and one for fallers. It will track trends for players in these categories throughout the 2024 MLB season and help managers target players for acquisition and identify players to avoid. The top Statcast value changers from the small sample that is the 2024 MLB season are below.
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Statcast Risers
The evaluation of fantasy baseball players has evolved with the introduction of more advanced statistics. In 2015, MLB installed Statcast in all 30 big-league parks. The modern Statcast, which has been in place since 2020, is run with Hawk-Eye technology commonly found in tennis to determine if shots are in or out of play.
Today, hitting stats like batted ball events (BBEs), average exit velocity (EV), barreled balls (BRLs) and hard-hit percentage (HH%) are available for players commonly used by fantasy managers. These categories help determine the quality of contact for MLB hitters, which is predictive of offensive production on the field and in fantasy lineups. For example, reigning National League MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. led MLB in barrels and was second in EV last season. Take a look here for details on Statcast categories.
The highly anticipated ascent of Bobby Witt Jr. has arrived early. The Royals star SS leads MLB in EV at 102.1 miles per hour (MPH) over his first 23 PAs of 2024. He is the only player with a three-figure rate in the category. Witt’s EV is up from 90.7 in 2023. He is also tied for first overall in BRLs thus far with five. A barrel (BRLs) is a batted ball event (BBE) that includes an ideal combination of exit velocity and launch angle (LA). Witt finished 10th overall in total BRLs last year. When a BRL results in a hit, it yields a BA of at least .500 and an SLG of 1.50 — both monster numbers in their respective categories. Witt is second overall in HH% at 84.6% and BRLs/PA% at 21.7%. He ranks third overall in OPS as well. If this start is any indication of Witt’s season to come we could see a fantasy eruption this year in Kansas City with his ability to steal bases.
Sticking with the Royals, Maikel Garcia has matched Witt’s MLB-leading five BRLs and ranks fourth overall in Barrel% at 31.3% to start the year. Barrel% is the rate of BBEs that result in a BRL. Garcia finished 127th in total BRLs and 124th in Barrel% last year. The Royals’ 3B will undoubtedly boost his production by getting the barrel to the ball this season after slashing .272/.323/.358 in 2023 with 23 SBs. His EV is running slightly higher in the early going at 94.7 following a 21st overall finish last season at 91.8. The left side of the Royals’ infield will be a force to be reckoned with if Garcia develops a balance of power and speed similar to Witt.
Christian Walker is seventh overall in EV to start 2024 at 96.9. This is up significantly from 88.0 last season, which was good for 108th overall. Walker is fourth overall this year in HH%, the rate of batted balls with an EV of 95.0+. He has five BRLs and a Barrel% of 31.3%. The Diamondbacks’ 1B is tied for first in BRLs after finishing 25th overall last season and is tied for third in Barrel% following a 95th overall finish in 2023. If Walker can maintain an improved EV he will build on his 33 HRs and 103 RBIs from last year and compete with Matt Olson and Freddie Freeman as one of the top fantasy assets at 1B.
Taylor Ward was limited to 97 games last season after a HBP to the face in late July. His 2024 season, on the other hand, is off to a great start. Ward has improved his EV from 90.7 to 96.7. This ranks eighth overall in the category after Ward finished 90th in 2023. Ward is also in the top five to start in BRLs/PA% at 20.0%. He was well outside the top 100 at 133rd last season, which explains the jump in EV. Ward has started all five games for the Angels thus far. If healthy he has more fantasy upside in 2024 after logging 409 PAs last year in which he carried a .253 BA with a .756 OPS. Ward is rostered in just 19.3% of ESPN leagues and is worth an add off the wire with a chance at a bounce-back season on the table.
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