Identifying fantasy football sleepers and under-the-radar players is one of the most fun parts of our fake game, but the process has changed over the last few years with so much information now at our disposal.

With a fresh new crop of rookies comes the opportunity to find draft-day bargains. When it comes to dynasty drafts and rookie sleepers for redraft/early best ball leagues, we have to dig pretty deep. That’s why I’ve embarked on a search for what I like to call “true sleepers” – small school and late third-round or Day 3 draft picks who could surprise early in the NFL.

• More Dynasty Rookie Draft Sleepers: RB
• 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
• 2024 NFL Draft Guide
• Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator

After researching and writing up my 2024 rookie dynasty rankings, I’ve identified a handful of wide receivers who could generate fantasy value like Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Darnell Mooney, Gabriel Davis, Romeo Doubs, Khalil Shakir or Rashid Shaheed did as rookies.

Remember that those Day 3 wide receivers seldom do what Nacua or St. Brown did in their rookie seasons, as I addressed in my pre-draft approach on how to value rookies in 2024 fantasy football.

I include some wide receivers with late-second-round or third-round draft capital for additional names. This class is extremely deep, meaning we could see up to 20 WRs drafted in the first three rounds.

Dynasty Rookie Wide Receiver Sleepers

Finding the Next Sleeper

Like my approach with running backs, I wanted to dive back into the prospect profiles of the Day 3 rookie wide receivers who popped in recent years. What, if anything, stood out?

Darnell Mooney not only posted a 33% career dominator rating at Tulane, but he broke out during his freshman year at age 19. Gabriel Davis’ 24% career dominator rating was less impressive, but he also posted an early breakout at the same age.

Mooney and Davis also showed we want to chase big-play upside with late-round picks. We can find that upside in players who create chunk gains. For example, Mooney averaged over 20 yards per reception in a collegiate season. Davis finished fifth in deep-ball receptions in his final year at UCF.

And although St. Brown doesn’t fit the big-play threat archetype, he still has a top-tier breakout age at 19 to go along with overall middling production and athletics.

However, guys who flashed and accrued dynasty value as their rookie seasons progressed, like Joshua Palmer and Ihmir Smith-Marsette, entered the NFL with vertical-threat prowess on their resumes.

Khalil Shakir and Romeo Doubs both broke out at age 19. Shakir was highlighted as one of my favorite Day 3 rookie WR sleepers in 2022 after he posted an extremely high dominator rating (46%) in his final year at Boise State. Doubs wasn’t quite as productive at Nevada but he still posted a top-10 dominator rating in the 2022 WR class. He also thrived as a downfield threat, with 55 targets of 20+ air yards in his last two college seasons.

Shakir and Doubs have seen their values increase compared to starting as Day 3 rookies.

Rashid Shaheed was an undrafted free agent in 2022 signed by the New Orleans Saints and didn’t make the active roster until October. But the team knew they had something in him based on his electric kick-returning profile from college. He broke out at 20 years old and averaged nearly 18 yards per catch in his final year at Weber State. Shaheed was also targeted on throws of 20+ air yards on 33% of his targets. His ascendance continued last season with him emerging as the Saints’ No.2 WR.

As for the 2023 rookie class, should we have seen the Nacua breakout coming? I know I was extremely high on Jayden Reed last season given his early breakout age, special teams ability and sheer production at 18 years old. Although the NFL wasn’t sleeping on Reed, given he was drafted in the second round.

Nacua also had an early breakout (19) and produced immediately in his first season at BYU. He commanded a bonkers target share (38%) and was heavily used downfield. Nobody could have projected Nacua for a record-breaking rookie campaign, but there were clear signs of sleeper appeal with his prospect profile.

Rashee Rice also had a 19-year-old breakout season. Tank Dell didn’t have an early breakout age but entered with one of the highest career dominator ratings in the 2023 WR Class.

And even though Marvin Mims Jr. didn’t quite fire as some had hoped in Year 1 — although he did make the Pro Bowl — his value has stayed at least stagnant into Year 2. He entered the NFL super young with a strong special teams background. But his career college dominator rating was a bit lackluster.

A.T. Perry had some glimpses in the 2023 season and was somebody I highlighted in last year’s sleeper article. He ranked highly in TDs of 20+ air yards. The same can be said for Dontayvion Wicks, who had spells of production in the Packers’ offense. Again, I highlighted him last season as an honorable mention because of his big-play ability and vertical game. Trey Palmer didn’t produce in Year 1 but made his way onto the field despite being a sixth-round pick. Again, another prospect who commanded an extremely high target share to go along with a deep threat and special teams skill set.

Demario Douglas was someone I was very late on given I was much higher on Kayshon Boutte. That was an error on my part. Douglas broke out at 20 years old and posted a top-five target share in the 2023 class at 32%. Like many sleepers that “hit” in the later rounds, Douglas also offered value as a special teams returner and posted a strong dominator rating (60th percentile), per PlayerProfiler.com.

The rookie WR busts from last season that were drafted later — Cedric Tillman, Jonathan Mingo, Jalin Hyatt — all had breakouts at age 21 or older. There were way more hits at 20 or younger (especially at 19). There were more underwhelming rookie WRs ranked near the bottom in college career dominator ratings versus the top.

As for best season versus final season dominator ratings — when the final season was much worse than the best — it was a negative outcome in Year 1. The rookies had much better results when the finals season/best season were the same.

Unearthing incoming rookies with high-end college production, a solid breakout age, kick/punt return ability and/or a vertical element to their game is a great way to scoop up sleeper value late in rookie dynasty drafts. Especially given the new kick-off rules we could see NFL teams value special teams ability even more in this year’s draft.

Breakout Ages for the 2024 Draft Class

Jacob Cowing (WR –  Arizona) 

At under 5-foot-9 and 168 pounds soaking wet (first percentile), Jacob Cowing may not possess the towering frame of some of his contemporaries. What he lacks in size he more than compensates for with his speed, agility and precise/nuanced route-running, making him a constant threat to opposing defenses. Per Sports Info Solutions, Cowing led the 2024 WR class in unique routes run (to go with a 27% target share).

Because he dominated production at Arizona and his previous stop at UTEP, his 32% career dominator rating ranks No. 1 in the class.

A 42% dominator rating in 2020 and a 41% dominator rating in 2021 at UTEP were elite numbers. He represented a top-five best single-season mark. Cowing also delivered early in his college career, breaking out at age 18 in 2019.

His senior year was particularly notable, amassing 89 receptions for 868 yards and 13 touchdowns. He tied a bow on his college career with over 4,500 receiving yards with nearly 2,000 coming after the catch.

Unfortunately, Cowing could not boost his stock at the Senior Bowl, where he suffered an injury. Hopefully, this is not a sign of things to come for the undersized WR, who might be pigeonholed into the slot at the next level. He had a 75% slot rate in college — K.J. Hamler-esque. Especially given his size at 168 pounds.

That’s his official weight from the combine, slightly less than his previously listed weight at 175 pounds. Cowing has decent long speed with sub-4.4 forty wheels, but that’s to be expected. Nothing else about his drills pops off the page:

• 36-inch vertical (55th percentile)
• 119-inch broad jump (35th percentile)
• 7.02 3-cone drill (38th percentile)
• 4.32 20-yard shuttle (30th percentile)

Cowing offers some special teams ability, which could increase his value to certain NFL teams. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him land on the Washington Commanders under OC Kliff Kingsbury, who is notorious for loving shorter WRs. He has also met with the Texans, 49ers and Cardinals during the pre-draft cycle.

Cowing is 23 years old, so his experience could help him hit the ground running sooner rather than later.

Brenden Rice (WR – USC) 

Brenden Rice, the dynamic wide receiver from USC and son of GOAT WR Jerry Rice, has made a notable impact in the college football arena thanks to his compelling performances. Standing at 6-foot-3 and weighing 208 pounds, Rice brings an imposing, well-built physical presence to the wide receiver position. Coupled with an impressive blend of speed and athleticism, he’s a formidable threat on the field.

He immediately produced from the get-go at age 18, breaking out with a 22% dominator rating in a truncated 2020 season for Colorado, albeit on a very small sample size.

He transferred to USC before the 2022 season. His stats in his senior year were particularly impressive — 45 receptions for 791 yards and 12 touchdowns, and boasting an average of 17.6 yards per catch. He finished fifth in target rate above expectation as Caleb Williams‘ No. 1 WR (10.5%). That is extremely notable given last year’s leaders in that category — Rashee Rice and Puka Nacua — were very productive as rookies.

Although a 25% final season dominator rating is underwhelming compared to the remainder of the class.

Josh Palmer is my comparable NFL WR for him, as I think he will only go as far as his QB, offense, situation, etc. will get him. Although I’ll admit, some of his size and hand work off the line of scrimmage looked like a young, spry Michael Thomas. There’s no denying he can feast in the red zone — 19% of his catches have gone for TDs (21 total).

He was a former special teams returner earlier in his collegiate career and he can thrive as an outside vertical threat. Per Sports Info Solutions, he finished eighth in deep route percentage (39%) and second in total points added per game when aligned out wide.

Ainias Smith (WR – Texas A & M)

Ainias Smith first burst onto the scene in 2020, posting a 27% dominator rating at 19 years old while leading the Aggies in receiving yards in a pandemic-shortened season. He also carried the ball 49 times for 293 yards and four TDs as he also started at running back.

Smith sustained his success in his third season but got hurt in 2022. He was also arrested in the summer of 2022 for a DUI, possession of marijuana and unlawful carrying of a weapon. The charges were dropped.

The 5-foot-9 and 190-pound WR bounced back in his final year in 2023, amassing a career-high 795 receiving yards on 53 catches with two TDs (15% dominator rating). His broken tackles per catch (2.0) ranked second in the 2024 WR class.

He will turn 23 years old this year.

Smith also has experience as a return specialist. He had an 82-yard punt return TD in 2023 and led the SEC in punt return yards in 2023.

If all the red flags are behind him, Smith’s versatility will surely be attractive to NFL teams given his diverse skill set as a slot WR. He’s not the fastest guy but he’s dynamic in the open field. The team that has met with Smith the most during the pre-draft process is the Philadelphia Eagles.

More Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice

• DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
  • Quarterbacks
  • Running Backs
  • Wide Receivers
  • Tight Ends
• DBro’s Top 50 Rankings & Player Notes
  • 1QB
  • Superflex
• Thor’s Rookie Rankings
  • Wide Receivers
  • Quarterbacks (Premium)
  • Running Backs (Premium)

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