It’s that time again. Dynasty rookie fever SZN is here. The NFL Draft has come and gone, and rookie drafts will start flying daily. Before you dive headfirst into our Draft Simulator and run 3,000 rookie drafts in preparation, please read up on this talented prospect class and their post-draft prospects now that we know landing spots. Let’s start at quarterback.
Motrin and Tylenol can’t quell this fever. The only medicine is more rookie mock drafts.
First-Round Rookie QBs
Immediate fantasy thoughts on Jayden Daniels from @Fitz_FF ⬇️https://t.co/X9z6zkxDzc
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) April 26, 2024
Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS)
Stats:
- 2023 (among FBS QBs, minimum 150 dropbacks)
- PFF passing grade: 2nd
- Adjusted completion rate: 6th
- Yards per attempt: 1st
- Big-time throw rate: 3rd
- Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
- Adjusted completion rate: 1st
- Deep throw rate: 62nd
- Deep passing yards: 4th
- Pressured passing (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks)
- Adjusted completion rate: 39th
- Pressured rate: 17th-lowest
Scouting Report:
- Jayden Daniels’ quarterback play is refreshing. With a sizable contingent of quarterbacks in this year’s class operating in quick passing and screen-heavy offenses, to watch Daniels go through progressions is a treat. He has quiet feet in the pocket. He’s a quick processor with no issues getting to even his third read on some plays. He managed to get to his “next read” on 14.8% of his dropbacks in 2023. You won’t find Daniels with tunnel vision for his first option.
- Daniels has easy flick-of-the-wrist velocity, and while he doesn’t have a cannon, he can chuck it an easy 50 yards with plenty of mustard to push it farther. His deep ball is exquisite, with him hitting receivers in stride on plenty of boundary throws, but he can shorten some deep balls at times, which I attribute to his random hiccups in the short and intermediate areas of the field. His base can be inconsistent at times, and while it might only happen a handful of times in a game, it’s still an area of improvement for this stellar prospect.
- Daniels is a fantastic anticipatory passer. He’ll cut loose passes before the receiver has reached the top of his stem and hit them on the money on a comeback. He has no issues pushing the ball into tight windows, but he is also quite happy to take layup completions if they are available. Daniels has no problems putting up a 50/50 ball and asking his guy to win. He plays with tempered aggression. Daniels had the fourth-lowest turnover-worthy play rate while also ranking third in big-time throw rate.
- His ball placement continuously offers yards after-the-catch (YAC) opportunities as he hits his receivers in stride. That is important, especially in today’s NFL, where zone and two high are all the rage.
- Daniels has no problems playing from the pocket. He doesn’t look to take off, and anytime he’s moved off his mark, he keeps his eyes downfield the entire time, looking for an open receiver. That’s not to say that Daniels isn’t a dynamic game-changing rusher. Daniels has hit 21 miles per hour (MPH) at LSU’s practices, so I have no worries about his 40 time. Daniels changes direction with no issues in the open field and has the acceleration to gain the edge. His biggest issue is that he needs to slide more. He’ll duck out of bounds easily on the perimeter, but in the interior, he has taken some huge shots.
Player Comp: Randall Cunningham
Dynasty Outlook: This landing spot was the fever dream for Daniels stans like me (outside of possibly going to Minnesota). Daniels will be a perfect fit for what Kliff Kingsbury wants to do on offense. At the height of Kyler Murray‘s powers under Kingsbury (2020-2021), the offense was built around deep passing and play-action. In 2021, Murray ranked fifth in deep ball rate, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). In 2020-2021, he was 10th and 11th in play-action dropback rate.
Daniels excels at both play-action and chucking it deep. Last year, he led all collegiate passers in deep PFF passing grade and deep adjusted completion rate while ranking fourth in PFF’s passing grade and third in yards per attempt on play-action dropbacks. Add in Daniels’ rushing upside, and he should not escape the top three picks in Superflex rookie drafts. He has a strong case to be in the 1.01 conversation with Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers. Daniels should be the first quarterback off the board in 1-QB formats because of his rushing ability.
The FIRST Ep of the @FantasyPros NFL Draft Show dropped on Feb 14th.
When @thorku & I professed our ? for J.J. McCarthy people said:
“this is click bait”
“have you watched his film”
“what about his counting stats”Less than a week until the #NFLDraft…
What does the… pic.twitter.com/UU1QpyM7Wv
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) April 19, 2024
J.J. McCarthy (QB – MIN)
Stats:
- 2023 (among FBS QBs, minimum 150 dropbacks)
- PFF passing grade: 10th
- Adjusted completion rate: 4th
- Yards per attempt: 11th
- Big-time throw rate: 26th
- Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
- Adjusted completion rate: 3rd
- Deep throw rate: 101st
- Pressured passing (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks)
- Adjusted completion rate: 4th
- Pressured rate: 60th
- 2022 (among FBS QBs, minimum 150 dropbacks)
- PFF passing grade: 43rd
- Adjusted completion rate: 53rd
- Yards per attempt: 26th
- Big-time throw rate: 37th
- Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
- Adjusted completion rate: 43rd
- Deep throw rate: 49th
- Pressured passing (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks)
- Adjusted completion rate: 60th
- Pressured rate: 22nd-lowest
Scouting Report:
- J.J. McCarthy is a playmaker from the pocket. He’s adept at buying time with his legs when it’s called for and isn’t scared to go off-script. While on the move, he keeps his eyes downfield as he surveys the field.
- McCarthy has a top-shelf pocket presence. He has quiet feet and will climb the pocket and hang tough in the face of pressure. McCarthy will roll out when required and can fire bullets on the move. I won’t be surprised to see him utilized on the move with boots more in the NFL. He has the arm talent to change his arm angle when needed and still fire rockets.
- McCarthy paces well through his reads, consistently getting to his second and third options. He has no problems letting a play develop and hitting a receiver with a second-window throw versus zone coverage.
- The former Wolverine has all the arm strength needed for the NFL. His film is littered with second-level darts to the boundary and into tight windows. His accuracy and ball placement need to improve some on deep tosses, especially on go balls on the boundary, but it’s nothing to see him hit a receiver in stride on a post downfield.
- He won’t be confused as a true dual-threat quarterback, but he can add some value as a rusher. McCarthy is a linear runner who displays open-field maneuverability with good bend and change of direction skills and a well-placed jab step. He’s no statue and could see a handful of designed runs weekly in the NFL.
Player Comp: Rich Gannon
Dynasty Outlook: Oh, baby. It happened. McCarthy to Minnesota. Someone pinch me. I must be dreaming. The Vikings got their stud franchise quarterback, and we should all rejoice. McCarthy’s haters don’t want to see it because he will bury all the bad takes and lazy slander tossed at him during the process. Last year, after Kirk Cousins was lost to injury, we got a wonderful look at how good of a play-caller Kevin O’Connell is with Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens under center. In the eight games these two signal-callers played at least 70% of the offensive snaps, they finished as the QB11 or higher in weekly fantasy scoring 63% of the time. That would have been the sixth-highest QB1 scoring rate in fantasy last year.
McCarthy has underrated wheels (the sixth-best three-cone time among all prospects who tested at the combine). O’Connell will utilize McCarthy’s legs, which will help pad his weekly ceiling and floor once he is the starting quarterback in Minny. Sam Darnold could draw a few starts to open the season, so there could be a nice buy-low window after your rookie draft to take advantage of. McCarthy was my QB2 pre-draft, and he remains my QB2 post-draft. McCarthy should be gone by the 1.07 or 1.08 pick in Superflex rookie drafts. In 1-QB formats, look for him to be gone in the back half of the first round. If he falls past 1.09/1.10, it’s time to trade up and pounce.
FantasyPros consensus grades for the first 8 picks tonight ✍️ pic.twitter.com/3xjY5pV5o3
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) April 26, 2024
Caleb Williams (QB – CHI)
Stats:
- 2023 (among FBS QBs, minimum 150 dropbacks)
- PFF passing grade: 14th
- Adjusted completion rate: 14th
- Yards per attempt: 8th
- Big-time throw rate: 18th
- Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
- Adjusted completion rate: 14th
- Deep throw rate: 59th
- Pressured passing (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks)
- Adjusted completion rate: 48th
- Pressured rate: 56th-highest
- 2022 (among FBS QBs, minimum 150 dropbacks)
- PFF passing grade: 5th
- Adjusted completion rate: 24th
- Yards per attempt: 9th
- Big-time throw rate: 23rd
- Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
- Adjusted completion rate: 32nd
- Deep throw rate: 52nd
- Pressured passing (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks)
- Adjusted completion rate: 25th
- Pressured rate: 62nd-highest
Scouting Report:
- Caleb Williams has the gunslinger mentality cranked up to 11 at all times. While I won’t fault him for that because I would rather the aggression than more passiveness when playing, it can get him into trouble. Williams will force throws into strapped coverage where he should have taken what the defense gave him with an easy underneath route or checkdown. This could bite him in the pros if he doesn’t reel it in.
- His highwire act played up better in 2022 than in 2023, when his supporting cast wasn’t as adept at getting open. At times, when you watch his 2023 tape, it’s evident every receiving option is covered up quickly, and Williams was forced into a backyard scramble ball. In 2023, on some reps, he looked frantic as he was pressing to play hero ball, whereas in 2022, on similar reps, he was a seasoned explorer sprinting in the dark with a playmaking compass pointing him toward home. He needs to play with more controlled aggression, like in 2022, and less, like in 2023.
- Williams has easy velocity at all levels of the field, allowing him to fit in strikes into some precariously tight windows. His flick of the wrist plus velo helps him out when he’s on the run, as it’s nothing for him to toss it 40 yards downfield while on the move and make it look easy. Williams has a quick release and can alter arm angles at the drop of a hat.
- He’s a strong processor on the field but he can rush through progressions. He’ll flip from his first to his second read or his second to his third without allowing the play to flesh itself out. Williams developed some bad habits in 2023 as he would bail some clean/workable pockets at the first sign of pressure instead of stepping up in a workable pocket to avoid the rush. He needs to get back to the 2022 version of himself, where he balanced his Superman tendencies with a tad more Clark Kent.
- Williams will offer some rushing upside in the NFL; although he’s unlikely to be a consistent 500-yard rusher like in college, he could kick in 300-400 in some seasons. Williams has a decent change of direction ability, but his start/stop isn’t lightning fast, as he’s equipped with more build-up speed. His escapability in the pocket would lead many to believe that, as a rusher, he would be twitchier. He can chew up yards when it’s called for but don’t look for him to be a heavy-designed rushing quarterback in the NFL.
Player Comp: Right-handed Steve Young
Dynasty Outlook: Caleb Williams lands in Chicago like we’ve thought the entire process. Williams is flanked by a host of skill players to make his life easier, with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet, D’Andre Swift and Rome Odunze. Williams will be the consensus 1.01 in Superflex rookie drafts and be drafted in the mid-to-late first round in 1-QB dynasty formats. It’s difficult to push back against either average draft position (ADP).
At first glance, it looks worrisome pairing Wiliams with Shane Waldron from a fantasy lens as he never finished higher than 15th in pass attempts in any of his three seasons in Seattle. If we look deeper, Williams should be just fine. Volume is king and Williams’ passing volume could surprise in year one. In 2021-2023, under Waldron’s direction, Seattle ranked eighth in neutral passing rate and fifth in neutral pace. If you want Williams in dynasty you’re going to have to pay a pretty penny to get him, but the cost could pay off handsomely.
Early fantasy reaction from @AndrewErickson_ ? pic.twitter.com/8zYB7i9Ftv
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) April 26, 2024
Drake Maye (QB -NE)
Stats:
- 2023 (among FBS QBs, minimum 150 dropbacks)
- PFF passing grade: 8th
- Adjusted completion rate: 30th
- Yards per attempt: 29th
- Big-time throw rate: 8th
- Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
- Adjusted completion rate: 8th
- Deep throw rate: 25th
- Pressured passing (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks)
- Adjusted completion rate: 23rd
- Pressured rate: 51st
- 2022 (among FBS QBs, minimum 150 dropbacks)
- PFF passing grade: 3rd
- Adjusted completion rate: 30th
- Yards per attempt: 31st
- Big-time throw rate: 4th
- Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
- Adjusted completion rate: 11th
- Deep throw rate: 59th
- Pressured passing (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks)
- Adjusted completion rate: 52nd
- Pressured rate: 30th-most
Scouting Report:
- Drake Maye is a deep-ball sniper. His arm strength consistently shows up in his film. His downfield prowess is one of his shining attributes, as he has ranked in the top 12 in deep ball-adjusted completion rate in each of the last two seasons. The deep ball velocity is palpable and easy as the ball jumps out of his hand. Maye also displays good touch and the ability to toss a precise change up in the short and intermediate when it’s called for.
- Maye has a pretty good pocket presence. He moves through progressions well overall but he does seem a tick late on some reps. It’s not a constant problem as he gets through reads one and two with regularity, but it’s rare to see him progress to his third option or a check-down unless they are earlier in the progression.
- He will stand tall against pressure to deliver strikes. Maye offers some off-script play-making ability, but he can get out over his skis in this realm at times. It’s not a consistent theme, but he will bail the occasional clean pocket. He does offer the ability to be utilized on bootlegs and on the move, whether scripted or if he’s working through a broken play. In scramble mode, he tends to lock onto one option while maneuvering through the noise. He needs to improve at keeping his eyes downfield in improv mode and continue to utilize the entire field as his canvas.
- Maye can get the ball out quickly for quick hitters, but his delivery can get long. He’ll need to clean that up in the NFL.
Player Comp: Matthew Stafford
Dynasty Outlook: Drake Maye lands in what appears to be a less-than-ideal situation. In 2024, he’ll be operating behind an offensive line that ranked 29th in pass-blocking grade, per PFF, while tossing the rock to a pass-catching depth chart that features Kendrick Bourne, DeMario Douglas, K.J. Osborn, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper and Tyquan Thornton. Yikes. Big time yikes. The good thing for Maye is that things could be better by the time he takes over as the starter. With Jacoby Brissett on the roster, we could see Maye sit for a few games (maybe his entire rookie season).
Even if Maye starts Week 1, we could see him protected inside of a run-heavy offense. During offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt’s tenure in Cleveland, he ranked 15th in neutral pace with the sixth-highest neutral rushing rate. Maye’s possible ceiling in the NFL and fantasy remains intact long-term, but don’t expect him to come out of the gate posting gaudy stat lines or operating in a pass-first scheme. Maye is still in play inside the top eight rookie picks in Superflex formats and the top 12-15 selections in 1-QB leagues.
This face from @thorku ? pic.twitter.com/SJdTQMZt3f
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) April 26, 2024
Michael Penix Jr. (QB – ATL)
Stats:
- 2023 (among FBS QBs, minimum 150 dropbacks)
- PFF passing grade: 6th
- Adjusted completion rate: 39th
- Yards per attempt: 18th
- Big-time throw rate: 10th
- Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
- Adjusted completion rate: 19th
- Deep throw rate: 38th
- Pressured passing (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks)
- Adjusted completion rate: 77th
- Pressured rate: 115th
- 2022 (among FBS QBs, minimum 150 dropbacks)
- PFF passing grade: 10th
- Adjusted completion rate: 46th
- Yards per attempt: 31st
- Big-time throw rate: 57th
- Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
- Adjusted completion rate: 76th
- Deep throw rate: 69th
- Pressured passing (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks)
- Adjusted completion rate: 101st
- Pressured rate: 137th
Scouting Report:
- Michael Penix has a good zip on the ball. He’s a max effort thrower and tosses the pigskin like a shot put. In a clean pocket, he can put some nice second-level and layered throws on tape.
- He has pretty good ball placement, but it can be inconsistent. He limits YAC opportunities for his wide receivers on some reps as he delivers a catchable ball, but it’s not in stride with his receivers as they are left waiting on the ball.
- Penix feels a tick behind on plenty of plays. There are too many instances of him holding the ball on film and missing a receiver running open only to deliver the ball after a corner is closing in. He’s very much a see-it, throw-it quarterback at this juncture, as there aren’t enough instances of him throwing with anticipation. His receivers will be at the top of their stem, and the ball should come out, but he’ll hold it until they have cleared a corner.
- Too often, Penix locks on his first read. While there are a ton of plays where he gets the ball out quickly, those plays, in many instances, are scripted plays or wide receiver screens. When his first read is covered, Penix tends to force the ball to his receiver anyway. There’s plenty to be said for tossing it up and expecting his receivers to win 50/50 balls, but this is more than that. He gets hyper-focused on his first reads and stares them down from the moment the ball is snapped.
- Penix too often leaves yards on the field. He shies away from using the middle of the field and, many times, won’t see a receiver streaking wide open on a slant or crosser until they cross his face.
- Penix has a decent pocket presence. He’ll roll out to avoid pressure but rarely will you see him hang in and climb the pocket. He has no issues hanging in versus pressure, though, and taking a big hit to deliver the ball to his receiver. Overall, he feels a tick slow to feel pressure or the pass rush.
Player Comp: A Poor Man’s Philip Rivers
Dynasty Outlook: Michael Penix got the draft capital we crave for quarterbacks, but this could not be any more of a muddled situation. If you are reading this while wondering, “What in the hell is Atlanta doing?” don’t worry, you’re not alone. The ink has barely dried on Kirk Cousins’ four-year deal with the Falcons. The earliest we could see Atlanta move on from Cousins would be in 2027. Yes, if you’re doing the math correctly, that is three years from now.
Penix looks like he is on the Jordan Love track, which is frightening. Waiting possibly three years with a quarterback on your dynasty roster to find out “if” he’s any good is frightening. Penix will likely get drafted in many Superflex rookie drafts in the late second or early third round, but I’m currently avoiding him at that ADP. Suppose Penix doesn’t see the field for possibly three seasons. In that case, there will be plenty of opportunities for dynasty GMs to acquire his services for their rosters for cheaper (especially if his ADP settles into the second round).
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) April 26, 2024
Bo Nix (QB – DEN)
Stats:
- 2023 (among FBS QBs, minimum 150 dropbacks)
- PFF passing grade: 1st
- Adjusted completion rate: 1st
- Yards per attempt: 5th
- Big-time throw rate: 78th
- Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
- Adjusted completion rate: 4th
- Deep throw rate: 12th-lowest
- Pressured passing (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks)
- Adjusted completion rate: 1st
- Pressured rate: the lowest in FBS (15.9%)
- 2022 (among FBS QBs, minimum 150 dropbacks)
- PFF passing grade: 35th
- Adjusted completion rate: 2nd
- Yards per attempt: 12th
- Big-time throw rate: 89th
- Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
- Adjusted completion rate: 4th
- Deep throw rate: 21st-lowest
- Pressured passing (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks)
- Adjusted completion rate: 4th
- Pressured rate: 4th-lowest
Scouting Report:
- The Oregon offense was tailored to get the ball out of Bo Nix’s hands quickly. The backbone of the offense is based on screens and quick passing. Last year, Nix had the fourth-lowest aDOT (average depth of target), the ninth-lowest time to throw and the ninth-highest screen rate while leading the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) in screen passing yards. This makes evaluating him for the NFL somewhat challenging. Some of these elements have bled into the NFL game, but Oregon had them ramped up to 11.
- Nix displays good mobility and accuracy while throwing on the run. He has good zip on short and intermediate passes, even when throwing off platform. He wasn’t asked to go deep often, with only 10.9% of his attempts 20 or more yards downfield. Last year, 66.7% of his passing attempts were aimed within nine yards of the line of scrimmage, with also 27.0% of his attempts behind the line of scrimmage. He has the arm strength to make all of the throws, and while his ball placement on deep tosses is ok, it’s not mind-melting.
- Nix stares down his first reads religiously. If his first read is covered, it becomes an adventure. In many instances, he will immediately go to his check-down option or scramble. Nix will drift and roll out from clean pockets at times. His processing and ability to navigate pressure in the NFL are big questions.
Player Comp: Kenny Pickett
Dynasty Outlook: I have been loudly lower than many on Bo Nix. The collegiate production is as close to fraudulent as you can get with screens and short passing flooding the stat sheet weekly last year for Nix. Now, with first-round draft capital beneath his wings, Nix has become this year’s Kenny Pickett. This year’s Mac Jones. The newest meh-level pocket passing quarterback dynasty GMs will talk themselves into as a “process pick.” While I don’t disagree with the “process” because we know Nix will start in 2024 and thus accrue fantasy points, the question is what is his ceiling? Also, if he is truly the uninspiring player I believe him to be the follow-up question is how long will he hold the starting job in Denver?
It’s not hard to make the case that much like Kenny Pickett, a quarterback-needy NFL franchise just made the “best” or, should I say, the only choice they felt they could to address their QB need. I have been adamant Nix has not been a first-round worthy prospect, and despite Denver pulling the trigger at 12 overall, I remain steadfast in that belief. If he falls into the second round of Superflex rookie drafts and you are starving for quarterbacks on your roster, I understand why GMs will make the selection. In most instances, I will take my shots on other skill players in rookie drafts over Nix.
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | TuneIn | RSS | YouTube
