Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice: Rome Odunze, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix (2024 Fantasy Football)

The 2024 NFL Draft has come and gone. While the real NFL draft is over, the fantasy football drafts are just beginning! That’s especially true when it comes to dynasty rookie drafts. NFL Draft landing spots allow us to start to zero in on fantasy football and dynasty rookie draft pick values. Let’s dive into our dynasty rookie draft outlook and advice for a few rookies.

Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Outlook

Here’s what Fitz expects for a few rookies selected during the 2024 NFL Draft.

Bears Draft Rome Odunze

The Chicago Bears have injected even more talent into their vastly improved WR room, taking Washington’s Rome Odunze with the ninth overall pick of the draft.

A member of the “Big Three” in this year’s rookie WR class along with Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, Odunze had a fantastic final college season helping fuel the Huskies’ run to the National Championship with 92 catches for 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns in 15 games. He had broken out in 2022 as a junior, catching 75 passes for 1,145 yards and seven touchdowns.

Odunze has extraordinary ball skills. He’s excellent at tracking the ball and is a beast in contested-catch situations, coming down with 20 of the 27 contested-catch passes he was thrown last season. Nabers was charged with only seven drops the last two seasons while making 167 catches over that span.

A terrific athlete with good size, the 6-2½, 212-pound Odunze ran a 4.45 at the NFL Scouting Combine and posted a dazzling 9.91 Relative Athletic Score on a 10-point scale. Odunze saw a lot of press coverage in his final season and had a high success rate against it. Odunze is a smooth route-runner and good after the catch.

As with Harrison and Nabers, Odunze has few discernible weaknesses. He’s not the threat after the catch that Nabers is, but he’s no slouch in that department either.

Odunze will face stiff target competition as a rookie, since the Bears already have WRs D.J. Moore and Keenan Allen. Odunze’s arrival could mean a short stay in the Windy City for Allen, who’s entering the final year of his contract. But the presence of those two established receivers puts a lid on Odunze’s target upside as a rookie, barring an injury.

But the future looks bright for Odunze considering that he’ll be paired with Caleb Williams, the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft, for the foreseeable future. Williams is an electric playmaker, and it’s easy to imagine Williams and Odunze making beautiful music together for years to come.

Odunze’s rookie ADP in dynasty formats is WR3 behind Harrison and Nabers, though there are Odunze fans in the dynasty community who rank Odunze WR1 or WR2. I have Odunze ranked WR3, just a notch below Harrison and Nabers. I’d draft Odunze third overall in a 1QB rookie draft and either fourth or fifth overall in a superflex rookie draft.

For redraft, I have Rome Odunze ranked WR36 for half-point PPR redraft leagues. Although I’m bullish on Odunze overall, he faces serious target competition from Moore, Allen and Kmet.

Check out his full dynasty rookie draft profile

Vikings Draft J.J. McCarthy

A steady riser throughout the predraft process, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy landed with the Minnesota Vikings after they traded up one spot to take him with the 10th overall pick of the draft.

McCarthy quarterbacked Michigan to a national championship last season, throwing for 2,991 yards and 22 touchdowns in 15 games. He completed 72.3% of his throws and averaged 9.0 yards per attempt.

There’s a long-running debate about how much credit a quarterback should get for his team’s record, but regardless of where you stand on the issue, it’s noteworthy that McCarthy’s teams have gone 63-3 in games he started at the high school and college levels.

Former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh, who will coach the Los Angeles Chargers in 2024, has praised McCarthy’s leadership. The 21-year-old McCarthy has a strong, accurate arm and good mobility. He’s good at throwing on the move and completed 71.4% of his passes while scrambling last season. McCarthy also draws praise for his decision-making, toughness and poise under pressure.

At 6-2½, 219 pounds, McCarthy has less-than-ideal NFL size. He also played in a run-heavy scheme at Michigan, where he averaged only 22.1 pass attempts per game in his final season.

J.J. McCarthy lands in a terrific spot from a fantasy perspective. He’ll get to throw to one of the best pass-catching groups in the league, headlined by star WR Justin Jefferson. The Vikings also have talented second-year WR Jordan Addison, who was a first-round pick in 2023, and TE T.J. Hockenson (though Hockenson is coming off a major knee injury).

With early-first-round draft capital and a terrific landing spot, McCarthy could conceivably go as early as 1.03 in superflex dynasty rookie drafts, and it’s hard to see him falling past 1.07. I preferred Drake Maye as a QB prospect, but with Maye landing in a poor situation in New England and McCarthy landing in a near-ideal situation in Minnesota, I now prefer McCarthy in dynasty. In 1QB dynasty leagues, where there’s reduced demand at QB because of the greater supply, McCarthy will most likely be an early second-round pick.

In redraft leagues, J.J. McCarthy should be regarded as a midrange to low-end QB2. I tentatively have him ranked QB22.

Check out his full dynasty rookie draft profile

Broncos Draft Bo Nix

The Denver Broncos have selected Bo Nix with the 12th pick of the NFL Draft and hope the University of Oregon product can help solve their QB woes.

No quarterback in this draft has taken more college snaps than Bo Nix, and perhaps all that playing time will help Nix make a quick transition from the collegiate ranks to the NFL.

Nix started 61 games over five college seasons — three at Auburn, where his dad had played quarterback in the ’90s, and two at Oregon. For a recent example of a battle-tested QB who overachieved early in his NFL career, consider the case of Brock Purdy, who made 46 starts at Iowa State and has become a successful starter for the 49ers despite being the last pick of the 2021 draft.

After failing to live up to expectations at Auburn, Nix thrived after transferring to Oregon, aided by a QB-friendly offense and a strong supporting cast. At Auburn, Nix completed 59.4% of his passes, averaged 6.9 yards per attempt and had a 39-16 touchdown-to-interception ratio. At Oregon, Nix completed 74.9% of his passes, averaged 9.2 yards per attempt and had a 74-10 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The 24-year-old Nix isn’t especially big (6-2, 214 pounds) and doesn’t have a bazooka arm, but he has adequate arm strength and good mobility, and he gets high marks for turnover avoidance. Nix seems to know his limitations and might be sneaky-good is he lands in the right system — much like Purdy. Nix should add some fantasy value with his legs. He had 38 touchdown runs during his college career, with 14 of them coming in his first season at Oregon.

The big question is whether Nix can adapt to a pro-style offense where he won’t be able to pad his production with screen passes and other quick, easy throws. (Nix threw 418 screen passes over his college career.)

Denver isn’t a bad landing spot for Nix. He’ll be coached by Sean Payton, who had a great run with Drew Brees in New Orleans. Brees didn’t have a cannon for an arm, and neither does Nix. Perhaps Payton can craft the same sort of effective ball-control passing attack for Nix that he designed for Brees in the Big Easy.

The Broncos graded out fifth in the league in pass blocking last year, per PFF, so Nix should be well-protected. Courtland Sutton is an established wide receiver, and second-year WR Marvin Mims has promise.

For dynasty, I have Nix ranked QB5 among rookies, behind Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. I prefer Penix as a QB prospect, but I had to move Penix behind Nix after Penix landed in Atlanta, where he’s likely to be a backup for a year or two. I have Nix ranked 23rd overall in dynasty. He’s likely to go at the tail end of the first round in superflex rookie drafts, and in the late second round or early third round in 1QB rookie drafts.

For redraft, Nix is a high-end QB3 who probably won’t be selected this year in most 1QB redraft leagues.

Check out his full dynasty rookie draft profile