Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice: Michael Penix Jr, Spencer Rattler, Bo Nix (Fantasy Football)

The fantasy football season has come to an end, but that doesn’t mean the NFL stops. It’s time to start getting excited for the 2024 NFL Draft. Dynasty fantasy football managers and redraft players alike can dive into the upcoming class of fantasy football rookies to prepare for the 2024 NFL season. We’ll take a look at players to know from the 2024 NFL Draft class.

Dynasty Rookie Draft Prospects

Michael Penix Jr. (Washington)

Stats:

  • 2023 (among FBS QBs, minimum 150 dropbacks)
    • PFF passing grade: 6th
    • Adjusted completion rate: 39th
    • Yards per attempt: 18th
    • Big-time throw rate: 10th
  • Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
    • Adjusted completion rate: 19th
    • Deep throw rate: 38th
  • Pressured passing (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks)
    • Adjusted completion rate: 77th
    • Pressured rate: 115th
  • 2022 (among FBS QBs, minimum 150 dropbacks)
    • PFF passing grade: 10th
    • Adjusted completion rate: 46th
    • Yards per attempt: 31st
    • Big-time throw rate: 57th
  • Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
    • Adjusted completion rate: 76th
    • Deep throw rate: 69th
  • Pressured passing (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks)
    • Adjusted completion rate: 101st
    • Pressured rate: 137th

Scouting Report:

  • Penix has a good zip on the ball. He’s a max effort thrower and tosses the pigskin like a shot put. He can put some nice second-level and layered throws in a clean pocket on tape.
  • He has pretty good ball placement but it can be inconsistent. He limits YAC opportunities for his wide receivers on some reps as he delivers a catchable ball but it’s not in stride with his receivers as they are left waiting on the ball.
  • Penix feels a tick behind on plenty of plays. There are too many instances of him holding the ball on film and missing a receiver running open only to deliver the ball after a corner is closing in. He’s very much a see-it, throw-it quarterback at this juncture, as there aren’t enough instances of him throwing with anticipation. His receivers will be at the top of their stem and the ball should come out but he’ll hold it until they have cleared a corner.
  • Too often, Penix locks on his first read. While there are a ton of plays where he gets the ball out quickly, those plays, in many instances, are scripted plays or wide receiver screens. When his first read is covered, Penix tends to force the ball to his receiver anyway. There’s plenty to be said for tossing it up and expecting his receivers to win 50/50 balls but this is more than that. He gets hyper-focused on his first reads and stares them down when the ball is snapped.
  • Penix too often leaves yards on the field. He shies away from using the middle of the field. Many times, he won’t see a receiver streaking wide open on a slant or crosser until they cross his face.
  • Penix has a decent pocket presence. He’ll roll out to avoid pressure but rarely will you see him hang in and climb the pocket. He has no issues hanging in versus pressure, though, and taking a big hit to deliver the ball to his receiver. Overall, he feels a tick slow to feel pressure or the pass rush.

Player Comp: Poor man’s Philip Rivers

Spencer Rattler (South Carolina)

Stats:

  • 2023 (among FBS QBs, minimum 150 dropbacks)
    • PFF passing grade: 58th
    • Adjusted completion rate: 7th
    • Yards per attempt: 50th
    • Big-time throw rate: 117th
  • Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
    • Adjusted completion rate: 16th
    • Deep throw rate: 7th-lowest
  • Pressured passing (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks)
    • Adjusted completion rate: 19th
    • Pressured rate: 29th

Scouting Report:

  • When Rattler is on, he looks like a legit starting NFL quarterback. He has easy velocity on throws, can hit all three levels, will layer some nice throws against zone and pinpoint some wonderful boundary shots. A worry with Rattler, though, is consistency. He has plenty of YOLO throws and spotty decision-making moments on film, too, where you’ll be left wondering, “What the hell was he thinking?” Consistency for Rattler has to continue to improve.
  • Rattler has good pocket maneuverability. He can throw on the run without losing accuracy. When he’s pressured, though, his footwork can lapse and you’ll see him sail some throws. He’s also late to feel the rush at times, which has gotten him blown apart by rushers.
  • Rattler was tasked with half-field reads on many plays. He’s quick to move from his first read to the next, but, again, consistency can be an issue; he’ll hang on to his first option for too long and rush his progression on other snaps. Again, when he’s on, he looks like he can be an average to above-average starter in the NFL.

Player Comp: Jeff Blake

Bo Nix (Oregon)

Stats:

  • 2023 (among FBS QBs, minimum 150 dropbacks)
    • PFF passing grade: 1st
    • Adjusted completion rate: 1st
    • Yards per attempt: 5th
    • Big-time throw rate: 78th
  • Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
    • Adjusted completion rate: 4th
    • Deep throw rate: 12th-lowest
  • Pressured passing (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks)
    • Adjusted completion rate: 1st
    • Pressured rate: the lowest in FBS (15.9%)
  • 2022 (among FBS QBs, minimum 150 dropbacks)
    • PFF passing grade: 35th
    • Adjusted completion rate: 2nd
    • Yards per attempt: 12th
    • Big-time throw rate: 89th
  • Deep passing (minimum 20 deep passing attempts)
    • Adjusted completion rate: 4th
    • Deep throw rate: 21st-lowest
  • Pressured passing (minimum 50 pressured dropbacks)
    • Adjusted completion rate: 4th
    • Pressured rate: 4th-lowest

Scouting Report:

  • The Oregon offense was tailored to get the ball out of Nix’s hands quickly. The backbone of the offense is based on screens and quick passing. Last year, Nix had the fourth-lowest aDOT (average depth of target), the ninth-lowest time to throw and the ninth-highest screen rate while leading the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) in screen passing yards. This makes evaluating him for the NFL somewhat challenging. Some of these elements have bled into the NFL game but Oregon had them ramped up to 11.
  • Nix displays good mobility and accuracy while throwing on the run. He has good zip on short and intermediate passes, even when throwing off platform. He wasn’t asked to go deep often, with only 10.9% of his attempts 20+ yards downfield. Last year, 66.7% of his passing attempts were aimed within nine yards of the line of scrimmage, with also 27.0% of his attempts behind the line of scrimmage. He has the arm strength to make all of the throws. While his ball placement on deep tosses is ok, it’s not mind-melting.
  • Nix stares down his first reads religiously. If his first read is covered, it becomes an adventure. In many instances, he will immediately go to his check-down option or scramble. Nix will drift and roll out from clean pockets at times. His processing and ability to navigate pressure in the NFL are big questions.

Player Comp: Jake Plummer

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