Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice: Michael Penix Jr. (2024 Fantasy Football)

This is what we’ve been waiting for, fantasy football enthusiasts. The NFL Draft is under way, and we finally get to see where the rookie prospects are going to launch their professional careers. And NFL Draft landing spots allow us to start to zero in on fantasy football and dynasty rookie draft pick values. Here, we break down Michael Penix Jr. and his fit with the Atlanta Falcons.

Throughout the draft, we’ll take a closer look at fantasy-relevant prospects, giving you an overview of their strengths and weaknesses, and assessing their fantasy value in both redraft and dynasty formats.

Let’s dig in.

Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Outlook

Fitz’s Fantasy Football Outlook

The Atlanta Falcons pulled off a first-round stunner, selecting the University of Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick of the NFL Draft.

Penix is a fascinating case. He’ll turn 24 in early May and is one of the older QB prospects in this class. He spent four seasons at the University of Indiana, each one ending with a significant injury — a pair of torn right ACLs and an injury to each of his shoulders. With two years of eligibility left, Penix transferred to the University of Indiana, where he thrived in offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb’s spread offense, taking the Huskies all the way to the National Championship Game, where they lost to Michigan.

Pennix averaged 340.9 passing yards per game during his two seasons at Washington, with 67 TD passes and 19 interceptions in 28 games. He was also able to stay healthy, in part because he rarely took sacks. Penix was sacked only 16 times over the last two seasons.

The 6-2, 216-pound Penix is a left-hander with a big arm. Although he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.58 seconds at his pro day, Penix does his best work from the pocket and probably isn’t going to provide much rushing value in the fantasy game. With his injury history, Penix simply can’t afford to be an aggressive runner.

Michael Penix throws a terrific deep ball and has the arm strength to fit the ball into tight windows. His accuracy can be inconsistent, however, particularly when he’s pressured or when he’s forced to throw on the move.

The Falcons acquired Kirk Cousins in the offseason, and Cousins will no doubt be the Falcons’ starter in 2024 as long as he’s healthy. But Cousins turns 36 in August and is coming off a torn Achilles. Penix provides the Falcons with not only QB insurance but a succession plan at the position.

Obviously, this is bad news for Penix enthusiasts in terms of his short-term fantasy outlook. Penix is basically undraftable in redraft leagues.

In dynasty, I’ll have Penix ranked either QB5 or QB6 among the rookies, and QB24 overall. Expect him to go late in the first half of the first round in superflex rookie drafts, and in the late second round or early third round in 1QB rookie drafts.

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Thor’s NFL Draft Profile & Player Comp

Michael Penix Jr. (Washington)
6022/216 | RAS: N/A
Player comparison: Lefty Geno Smith

Michael Penix Jr. is a pocket-passing lefty with a live-wire arm. The ball detonates out of his hand. Penix Jr. has the arm talent to fit the ball into tight windows.

Though he has an unorthodox motion, Penix Jr. can get the ball out quickly, and he doesn’t take sacks. Normally throwing from a three-quarters arm slot, Penix Jr.’s arm elasticity allows him to dispense from different angles if needed. In clean pockets, he was one of the nation’s most dangerous surgeons the past few years, calmly carving up defenses.

However, his evaluation also raises multiple red flags. Penix Jr. is a see-it-throw-it passer whose game craters when he is pressured and moved off his spot. Disrupting the Huskies’ timing and forcing Penix Jr. to move off his spot was the only reliable way to slow Washington’s offense the past few seasons. However, even mediocre teams could do it if the pass rush was up to the task.

Penix Jr.’s accuracy wavers when he doesn’t have his platform beneath him. His 69.2% completion percentage dropped to 54.9% on throws where his feet weren’t set and 45.8% while scrambling. For this reason, Penix Jr. is not a good fit for teams that seek mobility out of their quarterbacks, or who have a lot of bootleg concepts in their playbook.

He is not a poor athlete. But Penix Jr. has a funky, non-repeatable motion with a ton of arm action that lives on the razor’s edge. I wish he’d use his lower half more while throwing to generate even more power, but that’s more of a nitpick. What he uses that lower-body for is the sturdy base to shoot pills out from his unorthodox upper-body delivery. This is an essential link in his throwing chain, and, as we’ve seen, he cannot afford for it to be compromised.

Penix Jr.’s best odds of succeeding in the NFL are with a sturdy offensive line in front of him. Because even though Penix Jr. doesn’t take many sacks, – an admirable quality – he can be frazzled into mistakes when his first read isn’t there and heat is in his face. Washington’s offense often gave Penix Jr. a pre-delineated first read to go to, and many times, he took it. You’d see instances of ball-patting and indecision when it wasn’t there. Penix Jr. wanted to confirm a receiver was open before throwing, oftentimes leading to being a beat behind.

Lastly, Penix Jr.’s accuracy comes and goes. While he has some of the prettiest throws in the class, he also has a propensity to overshoot targets. That goes back to the arm action in his delivery and the lack of repeatable, natural mechanics.

Penix Jr. got great news at the NFL Combine when reports surfaced that his medicals had been cleared. This was essential following four straight season-ending injuries earlier in his career at Indiana.

Penix Jr. has proven he can run an offense. He has a no-doubt NFL-caliber arm, and he won at Indiana – one of the hardest places to win in America – prior to nearly taking Washington to the mountain top. The red flags in his on-field eval make him a second-rounder for me. This would follow the path of the player I comp him to, (a right-handed) Geno Smith.

Check out more NFL Draft profiles and player comps from Thor in our 2024 NFL Draft Guide