Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Michael Penix Jr. (2024 Fantasy Football)

The 2024 NFL Draft has come and gone. While the real NFL draft is over, the fantasy football drafts are just beginning! That’s especially true when it comes to dynasty rookie drafts. NFL Draft landing spots allow us to start to zero in on fantasy football and dynasty rookie draft pick values. Let’s dive into our dynasty rookie draft outlook and advice for a few rookies.

Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Outlook

Here’s what Fitz expects for a few rookies selected during the 2024 NFL Draft.

Cardinals Draft Marvin Harrison Jr.

The Arizona Cardinals hope they’ve landed an alpha wide receiver with their selection of Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. with the fourth overall pick of the first round.

The son of former Colts great Marvin Harrison is even bigger than his Hall of Fame dad. Harrison Sr. was 6-0 and played at around 180 pounds. Harrison Jr. is an imposing 6-3, 209-pound physical specimen. The younger Harrison may not be in his dad’s class as a route-runner, but Junior is good and improving in that area. FantasyPros NFL Draft and college football analyst Thor Nystrom writes that Harrison Jr. is “precise and calculated into the route break, and utterly violent out of them, exposing back to top speed quickly.”

Where Harrison Jr. shines brightest is at the catch point. He has a big catch radius, impressive leaping ability and extraordinary body control. Harrison Jr. is a faithful user of a modified JUGS machine, and it shows — he has great hands.

Despite seeing frequent double-teams and getting less-than-stellar quarterbacking in his final college season, Harrison Jr. had 67 catches for 1,211 yards and 14 touchdowns in 12 games. That came on the heels of a 1,263-yard, 14-TD season as a sophomore.

It’s hard to find weaknesses in Harrison’s game, but he hasn’t been a particularly affective tackle-breaker after the catch.

Harrison immediately becomes the No. 1 wide receiver in Arizona. Trey McBride is a high-quality tight end, but the Cardinals’ other receivers — Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Chris Moore and others — don’t provide a lot of target competition. It’s easy to see a path to 130-140 targets for Harrison as a rookie. He’ll also get to work with a solid quarterback in Kyler Murray.

Harrison has a FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking of WR18. He’s being drafted aggressively in Underdog best-ball drafts, with an ADP of WR11. I’m bullish on Harrison as a redraft value and have him ranked WR9. First-round wide receivers tend to be good fantasy values, as we’ve recently seen with players such as Justin Jefferson (rookie ADP: WR49) and Ja’Marr Chase (rookie ADP: WR27). The market is higher on Harrison Jr. than it was on Jefferson and Chase, and deservedly so. I think Harrison Jr. has the same sort of fantasy ceiling as those established stars.

In dynasty, Harrison is the consensus WR1. I concur and would take him first overall in 1QB dynasty rookie drafts and second overall in superflex rookie drafts, behind only QB Caleb Williams. Harrison Jr. profiles as a foundational cornerstone for a dynasty franchise.

Check out his full dynasty rookie draft profile

Giants Draft Malik Nabers

The New York Giants have added one of the most highly regarded wide receivers in this class, selecting Malik Nabers of LSU with the sixth pick of the first round.

The 6-0, 199-pound Nabers is coming off an electric final season in Baton Rouge in which he caught 89 passes for 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns in 13 games. As a sophomore, Nabers led the SEC with 72 receptions and had 1,017 yards and three TD catches.

Nabers is the best route-runner in the class. He has the acceleration of a performance sports car and can stop on a dime or change direction without losing speed. Nabers is an elite separator who seems destined to draw huge target totals in the NFL because he’ll be open so often.

As good a route-runner as Nabers is, he might be even better after the catch. Nabers ran a 4.38 at his pro day and seems to play even faster, slaloming around defenders as if they were traffic cones. And though he’s not a big receiver, Nabers is hard to bring down. In his final season at LSU, Nabers forced 30 missed tackles and had 309 receiving yards after contact.

Some will regard Nabers’ lack of size as a drawback, but his modest frame certainly hasn’t hindered him thus far.

Nabers should immediately become the go-to receiver in Brian Daboll’s offense. The Giants don’t have another high-volume receiver on the roster. Frankly, it’s not entirely clear whether the Giants have another good receiver on the roster, since the jury is still out on Jalin Hyatt and Wan’Dale Robinson, and Darius Slayton is average at best. The Giants are also awaiting word on whether TE Darren Waller will retire. QB Daniel Jones isn’t an ideal target distributor, but he’s not terrible either, so he’s not likely to singlehandedly torpedo Nabers’ fantasy fortunes.

Nabers can play inside or outside. He’s likely to spend a lot of time on the outside in his first year with the Giants, who have slot guys Robinson and Isaiah McKenzie on the roster.

In dynasty, Nabers has a consensus rookie ADP of WR2, and that’s where I have him as well. I’d take him second in a 1QB rookie draft and third in a superflex rookie draft, behind only QB Caleb Williams and WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

For redraft, Nabers had a predraft FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking of RB28 in half-point PPR redraft leagues and an Underdog best-ball ADP of WR23. I think he’s a phenomenal value at those prices and have him ranked WR16 in half-point PPR.

Check out his full dynasty rookie draft profile

Falcons Draft Michael Penix Jr.

The Atlanta Falcons pulled off a first-round stunner, selecting the University of Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. with the eighth overall pick of the NFL Draft.

Penix is a fascinating case. He’ll turn 24 in early May and is one of the older QB prospects in this class. He spent four seasons at the University of Indiana, each one ending with a significant injury — a pair of torn right ACLs and an injury to each of his shoulders. With two years of eligibility left, Penix transferred to the University of Indiana, where he thrived in offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb’s spread offense, taking the Huskies all the way to the National Championship Game, where they lost to Michigan.

Pennix averaged 340.9 passing yards per game during his two seasons at Washington, with 67 TD passes and 19 interceptions in 28 games. He was also able to stay healthy, in part because he rarely took sacks. Penix was sacked only 16 times over the last two seasons.

The 6-2, 216-pound Penix is a left-hander with a big arm. Although he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.58 seconds at his pro day, Penix does his best work from the pocket and probably isn’t going to provide much rushing value in the fantasy game. With his injury history, Penix simply can’t afford to be an aggressive runner.

Michael Penix throws a terrific deep ball and has the arm strength to fit the ball into tight windows. His accuracy can be inconsistent, however, particularly when he’s pressured or when he’s forced to throw on the move.

The Falcons acquired Kirk Cousins in the offseason, and Cousins will no doubt be the Falcons’ starter in 2024 as long as he’s healthy. But Cousins turns 36 in August and is coming off a torn Achilles. Penix provides the Falcons with not only QB insurance but a succession plan at the position.

Obviously, this is bad news for Penix enthusiasts in terms of his short-term fantasy outlook. Penix is basically undraftable in redraft leagues.

In dynasty, I’ll have Penix ranked either QB5 or QB6 among the rookies, and QB24 overall. Expect him to go late in the first half of the first round in superflex rookie drafts, and in the late second round or early third round in 1QB rookie drafts.

Check out his full dynasty rookie draft profile