Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice: J.J. McCarthy (2024 Fantasy Football)

This is what we’ve been waiting for, fantasy football enthusiasts. The NFL Draft is under way, and we finally get to see where the rookie prospects are going to launch their professional careers. And NFL Draft landing spots allow us to start to zero in on fantasy football and dynasty rookie draft pick values. Here, we break down QB J.J. McCarthy and his fit with the Minnesota Vikings.

Throughout the draft, we’ll take a closer look at fantasy-relevant prospects, giving you an overview of their strengths and weaknesses, and assessing their fantasy value in both redraft and dynasty formats.

Let’s dig in.

Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Outlook

Fitz’s Fantasy Football Outlook

A steady riser throughout the predraft process, Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy landed with the Minnesota Vikings after they traded up one spot to take him with the 10th overall pick of the draft.

McCarthy quarterbacked Michigan to a national championship last season, throwing for 2,991 yards and 22 touchdowns in 15 games. He completed 72.3% of his throws and averaged 9.0 yards per attempt.

There’s a long-running debate about how much credit a quarterback should get for his team’s record, but regardless of where you stand on the issue, it’s noteworthy that McCarthy’s teams have gone 63-3 in games he started at the high school and college levels.

Former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh, who will coach the Los Angeles Chargers in 2024, has praised McCarthy’s leadership. The 21-year-old McCarthy has a strong, accurate arm and good mobility. He’s good at throwing on the move and completed 71.4% of his passes while scrambling last season. McCarthy also draws praise for his decision-making, toughness and poise under pressure.

At 6-2½, 219 pounds, McCarthy has less-than-ideal NFL size. He also played in a run-heavy scheme at Michigan, where he averaged only 22.1 pass attempts per game in his final season.

J.J. McCarthy lands in a terrific spot from a fantasy perspective. He’ll get to throw to one of the best pass-catching groups in the league, headlined by star WR Justin Jefferson. The Vikings also have talented second-year WR Jordan Addison, who was a first-round pick in 2023, and TE T.J. Hockenson (though Hockenson is coming off a major knee injury).

With early-first-round draft capital and a terrific landing spot, McCarthy could conceivably go as early as 1.03 in superflex dynasty rookie drafts, and it’s hard to see him falling past 1.07. I preferred Drake Maye as a QB prospect, but with Maye landing in a poor situation in New England and McCarthy landing in a near-ideal situation in Minnesota, I now prefer McCarthy in dynasty. In 1QB dynasty leagues, where there’s reduced demand at QB because of the greater supply, McCarthy will most likely be an early second-round pick.

In redraft leagues, J.J. McCarthy should be regarded as a midrange to low-end QB2. I tentatively have him ranked QB22.

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Thor’s NFL Draft Profile & Player Comp

J.J. McCarthy (Michigan)
6024/219 | RAS: N/A
Player comparison: Rich Gannon

J.J. McCarthy emerges from Jim Harbaugh’s NFL factory, where he just won a national title as a 20-year-old third-year junior. McCarthy displaced Cade McNamara as QB1 as a sophomore. McNamara had previously taken the job of Joe Milton III, another top-10 QB prospect in this class.

McCarthy is a good athlete (ran the sixth-fastest 3-cone at the NFL Combine at 17 pounds heavier than his Michigan listing) with a big arm (his 61 mph max-velocity throw at the Combine was one mph away from the record). Importantly, these two things work in conjunction on the field.

McCarthy had a 72.3% completion percentage in 2023. When scrambling, he completed an absurd 71.4%. McCarthy keeps his eyes up with his upper body cocked to throw and his feet under him while he maneuvers around. He doesn’t lose accuracy on the move because he takes his mechanics with him. He fires frozen ropes to all three sectors on the move.

One of the most encouraging aspects of McCarthy’s 2023 breakout season was his work under pressure, a problem area as a first-year starter in 2022. He has the lateral agility and acceleration to get out of sticky situations, and he’s comfortable ad-libbing. The improvisational aspect of McCarthy’s game could be special at the next level.

McCarthy is a smart, tough player. His toughness is a key part of his NFL evaluation. One of the rarest traits you see on quarterback film – college or NFL – is a quarterback who doesn’t fade away from hits or brace for them while throwing. McCarthy is a player who steps into his throw every time and eats the biggest possible hit to make the most accurate pass possible.

After sometimes struggling to move off his first read as a true sophomore in 2022, McCarthy’s 2023 tape showed a young prospect becoming increasingly comfortable moving to his second and third options. He still needs work in this area, but his improvement was encouraging.

McCarthy also has gotten very good at timing concepts, a key component in Jim Harbaugh’s pro-style system. He mercilessly attacks the middle of the field, a skill the NFL loves. Last season, McCarthy had the most completions in the intermediate range over the middle of the top quarterbacks in this class. He finished with an absurd 85.6% adjusted completion percentage and 91.2 passing grade between the hashes while ranking No. 17 in the FBS with 97 such attempts.

The narrative was flipped on McCarthy to begin this process. That narrative focused on his counting stats. Those were skewed by the 11 Michigan leads of 21+ points in 15 games that led to McCarthy not taking a fourth-quarter snap in seven games last fall. McCarthy’s stats were also not inflated by empty-calorie first-down screens, nor were they pumped up by pouring it on against bad defenses. When taking out screen passes, only one quarterback in this class had nearly half of his passing attempts come against top-25 defenses: McCarthy (49.7%).

McCarthy’s per-pass and high-leverage stats sparkle. He is the only quarterback in this draft class who finished 72nd-percentile or higher in all seven of these PFF categories last season: standard dropback percentile, at or the beyond sticks percentile, avoids negative plays percentile, under pressure percentile, outside the pocket percentile, third/fourth down percentile and positively graded throws percentile. No other quarterback in this class was 54th percentile or higher in all seven of those categories.

McCarthy does, however, need to improve his sideline accuracy. Last year, he managed to rank No. 5 in the FBS in catchable throw rate despite finishing No. 48 outside the numbers. When he’s off, it’s due to his tendency on those throws to take an exaggerated lead step and then swing his upper body on the follow-through. Michigan’s offense didn’t feature as many of these throws as those of the other top quarterbacks, so some level of natural improvement should come through experience and mechanical tweaking.

Lastly, McCarthy could stand to modulate his touch on certain throws. What he does really well is hum tight spirals at high velocity, but he will improve as a passer if he learns to trade heat for trajectory or touch on throws that call for them.

McCarthy is 61-3 as a starter since high school (he went 27-1 and won a national title as Michigan’s QB1). He’s a winner who former coaches and teammates fawn over. Harbaugh, now the Chargers’ head coach, believes McCarthy is the best prospect in this entire class.

McCarthy offers a stellar analytical profile and projectable traits. He has a rare skillset to play out of structure, proving he could play within structure at Michigan. He’s early on the development curve, with an unteachable aspect to his game that, if fully realized, will make him a legitimate menace at the next level. His floor and ceiling have both been undersold. He’s a worthy top-five bet in April’s draft.

Check out more NFL Draft profiles and player comps from Thor in our 2024 NFL Draft Guide