The 2024 NFL Draft has come and gone. While the real NFL draft is over, the fantasy football drafts are just beginning! That’s especially true when it comes to dynasty rookie drafts. NFL Draft landing spots allow us to start to zero in on fantasy football and dynasty rookie draft pick values. Let’s dive into our dynasty rookie draft outlook and advice for a few rookies.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Outlook
Here’s what Fitz expects for a few rookies selected during the 2024 NFL Draft.
Raiders Draft Brock Bowers
The Las Vegas Raiders didn’t have a screaming need for a tight end, but they couldn’t pass on Georgia’s Brock Bowers when he fell to them at Pick No. 13, so they happily snatched up one of the best pass-catching TE prospects to enter the NFL in years.
Bowers was a force from the moment he set foot on campus in Athens, catching 56 passes for 882 yards and 13 touchdowns as a true freshman. He had no fewer than 56 receptions in any of his three seasons at Georgia, and he finished with 56 catches for 714 yards and six touchdowns last season even though a high-ankle sprain limited him to 10 games. Bowers had 193 rushing yards and five TD runs during his college career.
An ultra-versatile chess piece, Bowers can line up anywhere – inline, in the slot, out wide, or in the backfield. He’s a crisp route-runner with a bagful of tricks to get defenders off-balance and gain separation. Bowers has spiderweb hands, and he’s an absolute menace after the catch, breaking tackles or using his speed to elude defenders.
Bowers didn’t test at either the NFL Scouting Combine or his pro day, but he’s a terrific athlete who can generate good speed for someone who measures 6-3, 243 pounds.
The knocks on Bowers? Well, he’s probably never going to be an exceptional blocking tight end. Do we care about that in that fantasy game? Not one little bit. Bowers is going to be an extraordinary pass-catching weapon in both real life and the fantasy realm.
The Raiders have a high-volume wide receiver in Davante Adams, they already have a tight end they like in 2023 second-rounder Michael Mayer, and they have one of the shakier quarterback situations in the league, with Gardner Minshew the likely starter and Aidan O’Connell the No. 2. It doesn’t seem like the best of situations for Bowers, but he’s such a versatile Swiss army knife that I’m not inclined to fade him based on his ecosystem. I suspect Bowers is going to catch at least 55-60 passes as a rookie.
The consensus TE1 in this rookie class, Bowers is likely to be taken 1.04 in most 1QB dynasty rookie drafts, after the WR trio of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze. In TE-premium leagues, it’s possible Bowers will go in the top three. Expect him to come off the board near the middle of the first round in superflex rookie drafts. I have the 21-year-old Bowers ranked as the overall TE1 for dynasty.
In redraft, I’m being a bit more conservative, ranking Bowers TE9. He had a predraft FantasyPros Expert Consensus ranking on TE10 in half-point PPR formats, and he had a predraft Underdog best-ball ADP of TE7.
Check out his full dynasty rookie draft profile
Jaguars Draft Brian Thomas Jr.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have selected Brian Thomas of LSU with the 23rd pick of the first round.
A high-ceiling WR prospect with a tantalizing combination of size and speed, Thomas measures 6-2½, 209 pounds, and blazed a 4.33 at the NFL Scouting Combine. Thomas also posted a 9.97 Relative Athletic Score, 10th-best among all wide receivers to have posted a RAS since 1987, according to RAS pioneer Kent Lee Platte.
Thomas was a touchdown machine in his third and final season at LSU, with 17 TD catches in 13 games. He had 68 catches for 1,177 yards, averaging 17.3 yards per catch. Thomas had a 147.8 passer rating on his targets last season.
Thomas is remarkably fluid for a bigger receiver, and the number of big plays he made downfield last season attests to his tracking ability and ball skills.
After running a very limited route tree — mostly go routes, comebacks and slants — in Baton Rouge, Thomas will have to become a more complete route-runner at the professional level. He had only one impactful college season, and he did it with Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels as his quarterback.
Brian Thomas joins a Jaguars WR room that includes Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and free-agent addition Gabe Davis. It’s possible that Thomas could be Jacksonville’s No. 4 receiver to start the season if he doesn’t get up to speed quickly. The Jags also have a prolific pass-catching tight end in Evan Engram. But Thomas probably has a higher ceiling than any of the Jaguars’ other wide receivers, and it’s a plus that he’ll be playing with QB Trevor Lawrence.
Thomas has the potential to develop into Jacksonville’s lead receiver, but it’s not likely to happen in his rookie year. More likely, he’ll provide some splash plays in 2024 but not a lot of catch volume.
In dynasty, Thomas is the consensus WR4 among rookies. I agree with that ranking and would take him fifth overall in 1QB rookie drafts behind Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze and Brock Bowers. In superflex rookie drafts, Thomas should come off the board at pick 1.09, behind the top four quarterbacks, the “Big Three” wide receivers, and Bowers. Thomas is my dynasty WR30.
For redraft, Brian Thomas had a predraft FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking of WR60 in half-point PPR leagues. His Underdog best-ball ADP before the draft was WR41. I have Thomas ranked WR46.
Check out his full dynasty rookie draft profile
Chiefs Draft Xavier Worthy
The Kansas City Chiefs have injected a shot of adrenaline into their WR room, selecting Xavier Worthy of Texas with the 28th pick of the first round after making a trade with Buffalo to move up four spots.
Kansas City is a dream landing spot for a wide receiver, and Worthy seems like an especially good fit for Chiefs head coach Andy Reid’s system.
Speed is Worthy’s calling card. He broke the record for the fastest 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting combine with a 4.21. Worthy combines that explosive speed with high-quality route-running. He’s no mere deep threat; the Longhorns endeavored to get the ball into Worthy’s hands on shorter routes, too, positioning him to do damage after the catch. Worthy played both outside and in the slot at Texas, and that versatility should help with his transition to the NFL.
Worthy was productive from the get-go at Texas, catching 62 passes for 981 yards and 12 touchdowns as an 18-year-old freshman. He finished his three-year run in Austin with 75 catches for 1,014 yards and five touchdowns last season while sharing targets with WR Adonai Mitchell ad TE Ja’Tavion Sanders.
Xavier Worthy is 5-11, 165 pounds, so he’s not going to win many tests of strength against NFL defensive backs. His lack of physicality shows up in contested-catch situations. He also has questionable ball skills, with 12 drops over the last two years.
The good news is that Reid is going to find all sorts of creative ways to get Worthy into open space, and QB Patrick Mahomes isn’t going to force Worthy to make a lot of contested catches. The Chiefs value speed at wide receiver, but they’ve taken some missteps in trying to add speed at the WR position, signing Marquez Valdes-Scantling, trading for Kadarius Toney, and drafting and reacquiring Mecole Hardman. Worthy is a better player than any of those three and should quickly become a valuable fantasy asset in the Kansas City offense, even though he’ll have to share targets with TE Travis Kelce and WR Rashee Rice.
In dynasty, I had Worthy ranked WR6 among rookies before the draft but have moved him up to WR4. I have him ranked WR28 overall for dynasty. He’s likely to go somewhere from 1.04 to 1.07 in 1QB dynasty rookie drafts, and in the late first round of superflex rookie drafts.
Xavier Worthy’s predraft FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking in half-point PPR redraft leagues was WR66. His predraft Underdog best-ball ADP was RB58. He’ll get more expensive after landing with the Chiefs. I tentatively have him ranked WR46 for redraft.
Check out his full dynasty rookie draft profile
Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings
Our analysts provide their latest rookie draft rankings below. And also check out our expert consensus dynasty rookie draft rankings!
More Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- DBro’s Top 50 Rankings & Player Notes
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