Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice: Brian Thomas Jr. (2024 Fantasy Football)

This is what we’ve been waiting for, fantasy football enthusiasts. The NFL Draft is under way, and we finally get to see where the rookie prospects are going to launch their professional careers. And NFL Draft landing spots allow us to start to zero in on fantasy football and dynasty rookie draft pick values. Here, we break down WR Brian Thomas Jr. and his fit with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Throughout the draft, we’ll take a closer look at fantasy-relevant prospects, giving you an overview of their strengths and weaknesses, and assessing their fantasy value in both redraft and dynasty formats.

Let’s dig in.

Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Outlook

Fitz’s Fantasy Football Outlook

The Jacksonville Jaguars have selected Brian Thomas of LSU with the 23rd pick of the first round.

A high-ceiling WR prospect with a tantalizing combination of size and speed, Thomas measures 6-2½, 209 pounds, and blazed a 4.33 at the NFL Scouting Combine. Thomas also posted a 9.97 Relative Athletic Score, 10th-best among all wide receivers to have posted a RAS since 1987, according to RAS pioneer Kent Lee Platte.

Thomas was a touchdown machine in his third and final season at LSU, with 17 TD catches in 13 games. He had 68 catches for 1,177 yards, averaging 17.3 yards per catch. Thomas had a 147.8 passer rating on his targets last season.

Thomas is remarkably fluid for a bigger receiver, and the number of big plays he made downfield last season attests to his tracking ability and ball skills.

After running a very limited route tree — mostly go routes, comebacks and slants — in Baton Rouge, Thomas will have to become a more complete route-runner at the professional level. He had only one impactful college season, and he did it with Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels as his quarterback.

Brian Thomas joins a Jaguars WR room that includes Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and free-agent addition Gabe Davis. It’s possible that Thomas could be Jacksonville’s No. 4 receiver to start the season if he doesn’t get up to speed quickly. The Jags also have a prolific pass-catching tight end in Evan Engram. But Thomas probably has a higher ceiling than any of the Jaguars’ other wide receivers, and it’s a plus that he’ll be playing with QB Trevor Lawrence.

Thomas has the potential to develop into Jacksonville’s lead receiver, but it’s not likely to happen in his rookie year. More likely, he’ll provide some splash plays in 2024 but not a lot of catch volume.

In dynasty, Thomas was the consensus WR4 among rookies before the draft. I think he should now be the WR5, and I would take him sixth overall in 1QB rookie drafts behind Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Brock Bowers and Xavier Worthy. (Worthy’s plum landing spot is what bumped Thomas from WR4 to WR5 for me.) In superflex rookie drafts, Thomas should come off the board at pick 1.10, behind the top four quarterbacks, the four aforementioned wide receivers, and Bowers. Thomas is my dynasty WR31.

For redraft, Brian Thomas had a predraft FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking of WR60 in half-point PPR leagues. His Underdog best-ball ADP before the draft was WR41. I have Thomas ranked WR46.

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Thor’s NFL Draft Profile & Player Comp

Brian Thomas Jr. | LSU
6027/209 | RAS: 9.84
Comp: Christian Watson

If anyone tells you that they know exactly what Brian Thomas Jr. will become at the next level, they’re lying. But here’s the good news: Thomas brings a high floor (as a pop-the-top WR2 whose speed must be respected), and the potential of a very high ceiling (legitimate NFL WR1).

Thomas was a top-100 overall recruit who started nine games at LSU as a true freshman on a team with a WR room chock-full of future NFL players. Thomas Jr. took a backseat his first two seasons amid the crowd, posting 359 yards as a freshman and 361 the next year.

But last year, Thomas made the leap, with a stellar 68-1177-17 receiving line in the SEC. His advanced stats are dazzling. Thomas Jr. was 82nd percentile against single coverage, 88th percentile in separation rate and 89th percentile in separation rate against single coverage. Only four other receivers in this class were 82nd percentile or above in all three metrics – and none sit above him in these rankings.

Not only that, but Thomas’ 147.8 passer rating on targets was the best of my top-20 ranked receivers. A gazelle of an athlete and a former star high school basketball player, Thomas is a special downfield playmaker.

Last year, his one season of stardom in college football, Thomas ran an extremely parred-down route tree that rarely asked him to change directions horizontally. Roughly two-thirds of Thomas’ routes were either go-routes, comebacks, or slants. Many of Thomas’ wins came courtesy of his athleticism.

If that continues to be the case at the next level – if his usage remains case-specific because he never becomes skilled at creating separation with nuance or acumen – Thomas will become a solid NFL WR2. Former LSU WR DJ Chark would be an example of this – someone whose size/speed and ball skills demanded respect, but who didn’t have the other clubs in his bag to affect games outside of that utility.

But if Thomas improves his route-running and becomes a complete receiver, he has all the physical ability needed to become a star WR1 at the next level.

Check out more NFL Draft profiles and player comps from Thor in our 2024 NFL Draft Guide