This is what we’ve been waiting for, fantasy football enthusiasts. The NFL Draft is under way, and we finally get to see where the rookie prospects are going to launch their professional careers. And NFL Draft landing spots allow us to start to zero in on fantasy football and dynasty rookie draft pick values.
Throughout the draft, we’ll take a closer look at fantasy-relevant prospects, giving you an overview of their strengths and weaknesses, and assessing their fantasy value in both redraft and dynasty formats.
Let’s dig in.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Outlook
Fitz’s Fantasy Football Outlook
The New York Jets have added the most imposing physical specimen among this year’s rookie running backs, drafting Wisconsin’s Braelon Allen with the 134th overall pick.
Allen measured 6-1, 235 pounds at the NFL Scouting Combine but probably played at closer to 240-245 pounds during his college career. He chose not to run the 40-yard dash at either the combine or his pro day, but Allen’s game really isn’t about straight-line speed anyway.
As a 17-year-old freshman, Allen ran for 1,268 yards and 12 touchdowns. He had another 1,200-yard season as a sophomore, scoring 11 touchdowns. Allen’s third and final season at Wisconsin was a mild letdown: He finished with 984 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns in 11 games.
Allen might not be fast, but he has quick feet and good lateral agility for a big man. And while he’s not as punishing a runner as he could be at his size, Allen isn’t going to be brought down by an arm tackle either.
It’s worth underscoring how productive Allen was at a young age, pounding out a 1,200-yard rushing season for a Big Ten team at an age when most kids are finishing up high school. Allen is the youngest player in this draft class at any position, and yet he had more 100-yard rushing games in college (20) than any other player in this class.
As noted earlier, Allen isn’t ultra-physical for a bigger back. He’s an upright runner, which leads to hard shots that occasionally force Allen to leave the game. He had some ball-security issues in college, coughing up nine fumbles during his three seasons in Madison. And while Allen has decent hands, he’s probably not going to get much usage as a pass catcher in the NFL since he’s not particularly effective in space.
It’s hard to imagine Allen getting significant playing time as a rookie behind Breece Hall, one of the best running backs in the league. It’s not even clear whether Allen will be Hall’s primary backup, since the Jets also have intriguing young RB Israel Abanikanda, a fifth-round pick last year.
Allen’s predraft FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking in half-point PPR redraft leagues was RB51, with an Underdog best-ball ADP of RB46. I tentatively have Allen ranked RB66 for redraft. He’ll likely be an afterthought in redraft leagues this year.
I now have Allen ranked RB9 among rookies, with an overall dynasty ranking of RB48. Allen could eventually have some fantasy utility as an early-down thumper whose big body gives him appealing goal-line potential. But the majority of dynasty leagues are full-point PPR, and Allen’s limited ceiling as a pass catcher might put a tight lid on his dynasty value.
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Thor’s NFL Draft Profile & Player Comp
Braelon Allen (Wisconsin)
6012/235 | RAS: N/A
Player Comparison: Rashad Jennings
Braelon Allen is a big back who may have missed his era. Played in two vastly different schemes in college — first, Wisconsin’s classic I-formation power-run scheme and then Phil Longo’s spread offense out of the shotgun. Appreciate his light feet for his size — he’s not a plodder. But he’s also, frustratingly, not a bulldozer-type who naturally leverages his size and power advantages. Too often, Allen gets cute and attempts to evade in the open field instead of taking the shortest path possible and running over smaller defenders in the open field. His upright style makes it easier in those scenarios to chop him down. My bigger issue is his vision. Allen doesn’t have a natural feel for finding space or following his blocks. Too often, he gets tunnel vision and misses a cutback lane or outright barrels into the back of a blocker. In the passing game he’s proven he can be a dump-off guy… but no more. He’ll corral the ball as the check-down guy and go down shortly thereafter. Disappointingly unreliable in pass-pro to this point. He’ll mix it up but becomes a flailing matador with a rickety base under him. It’s a little concerning he didn’t athletically test during the pre-draft process. Allen just turned 20, so more improvement may be coming.
Check out more NFL Draft profiles and player comps from Thor in our 2024 NFL Draft Guide
Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings
Our analysts provide their latest rookie draft rankings below. And also check out our expert consensus dynasty rookie draft rankings!
More Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- DBro’s Top 50 Rankings & Player Notes
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