This is what we’ve been waiting for, fantasy football enthusiasts. The NFL Draft is under way, and we finally get to see where the rookie prospects are going to launch their professional careers. And NFL Draft landing spots allow us to start to zero in on fantasy football and dynasty rookie draft pick values. We look at wide receiver Adonai Mitchell and how he’ll fit with the Indianapolis Colts.
Throughout the draft, we’ll take a closer look at fantasy-relevant prospects, giving you an overview of their strengths and weaknesses, and assessing their fantasy value in both redraft and dynasty formats.
Let’s dig in.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Outlook
Fitz’s Fantasy Football Outlook
The Indianapolis Colts have added one of the most intriguing wide receivers in the 2024 rookie class, selecting Adonai Mitchell of Texas with the 20th pick of the second round.
Mitchell had 55 catches for 845 yards and 11 touchdowns in 14 games for the Longhorns last season after transferring from Georgia. He’s a size-speed freak, with a 6-2, 205-pound frame and 4.34 wheels, giving Mitchell a 97th percentile speed score, according to PlayerProfiler.com. Mitchell posted a 9.99 Relative Athletic Score, fifth-best among all wide receivers to have posted a RAS since 1987, per RAS pioneer Kent Lee Platte.
Adonai Mitchell’s speed and athleticism give him immense potential. He’s also shown reliable hands, with only one drop over his final two seasons in Austin.
While Mitchell hit some impressive home runs for the Longhorns, he didn’t bang out a lot of singles and doubles. He hasn’t shown much in contested-catch situations, and he hasn’t gained a lot of yardage after the catch. Mitchell’s effort can be inconsistent at times.
The Colts already have a high-volume possession receiver and a quick slot receiver in Josh Downs. What they need is a vertical threat, since Alec Pierce hasn’t been particularly effective in that role. It’s unlikely Adonai Mitchell gets a substantial target share right away as the No. 3 or No. 4 receiver in what should be a fairly run-heavy offense with Anthony Richardson at quarterback and Jonathan Taylor as the lead running back. But Mitchell could be the Colts’ designated lid lifter, providing the occasional big play.
Mitchell figures to be an early-second-round pick in 1QB dynasty rookie drafts and a late second-rounder or early third-rounder in most superflex rookie drafts. I’m relatively bearish on Mitchell in dynasty, ranking him WR10 among the rookies and WR44 overall.
For redraft, Mitchell had a predraft FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking of RB63 in half-point PPR redraft leagues. Adonai Mitchell’s predraft Underdog best-ball ADP was RB55. I have Mitchell ranked WR68in redraft and won’t be targeting him in my drafts, though I wouldn’t be opposed to taking a late-round flyer on him if he slid.
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Thor’s NFL Draft Profile & Player Comp
Adonai Mitchell | Texas
6022/205 | RAS: 9.98
Comp: DJ Chark
I get why people love Mitchell. He played at two blueblood programs, in several huge games. He’s a size/speed super freak, with 4.34 wheels and a 98th-percentile broad jump in a big package.
But, simply put, Mitchell has not displayed the NFL skills that the guys above him on this list have. Watching Mitchell’s tape is an exercise in frustration. He does not go full-bore every rep – there were myriad examples of half-hearted jogging off the line on plays designed to go to the other side.
Beyond that, at this time, Mitchell is a situation-specific target. Look elsewhere for your efficiency, like the Longhorns did. Texas preferred going to Xavier Worthy, Ja’Tavion Sanders and even Jordan Whittington in the short/intermediate sectors. Mitchell telegraphs change-of-direction plans early, and he doesn’t quickly accelerate once his momentum has been affected.
Mitchell is a long-strider who needs a runway to build up to his speed. Want proof? Mitchell’s 10-yard split on that 4.34 equaled Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen Coker, who ran 4.52 and 4.57 forties, respectively. When Mitchell gets a step headed downfield, that’s when he becomes dangerous. He gets faster the further you go down the field, and there simply aren’t many humans alive who can match his top gear – the list of those his size is far smaller still.
Mitchell is capable of hitting moon-shot dingers. But the reason his production profile in college was always hit-and-miss is because when he isn’t connecting, he’s striking out. On a great passing offense last year, Mitchell finished with 35 or fewer receiving yards in half of Texas’ games (seven of 14). But he went over 140 yards twice and cracked 100 in a third. In those three games, he averaged 16.6 YPC. When he isn’t parking balls, he’s a non-factor.
I see Mitchell the opposite way most do. I’ve heard the opinion numerous times this spring that Mitchell has this enormous ceiling if you can stomach a little risk. To me, it’s the opposite: He has a relatively high floor – as your prototypical pop-the-top WR2 – but only a mid-tier ceiling. Mitchell does not change directions well enough nor run routes crisply enough to become an alpha NFL WR1, and his loafing reps on film don’t suggest dogged determination at the margins. I see a DJ Chark-type.
Check out more NFL Draft profiles and player comps from Thor in our 2024 NFL Draft Guide
Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings
Our analysts provide their latest rookie draft rankings below. And also check out our expert consensus dynasty rookie draft rankings!
More Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- DBro’s Top 50 Rankings & Player Notes
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