AFC Draft Grades: 2024 NFL Draft

And just like that, the 2024 NFL Draft is behind us. Let’s take a look at each team in the AFC and break down their picks. Here are my draft grades, rankings, and player comps for all of the AFC teams over the course of what turned out to be a wild 2024 NFL Draft.

Check out my NFC Draft Grades here.

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2024 NFL Draft: AFC Draft Grades

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens | Draft Grade: B-

With primary needs heading in at OT and CB, the Ravens brass made a wise call in choosing the latter at 1.30 after Tyler Guyton was taken one slot above, officially tapping dry that position’s R1 talent.

Instead, Baltimore took skinny Clemson speedster CB Nate Wiggins, a strong value. That meant it was time for the OT pick one stanza later. The Ravens ended up deciding on Roger Rosengarten at No. 52 over Kingsley Suamataia, who went one pick later. I’m not going to blast the Rosengarten pick – but if it had been my call to make, the card would have been submitted with Suamataia’s name pretty quickly.

EDGE Adisa Isaac is a tricky projection in that he’s an undersized, forward-attacking defender with good-but-not-great athleticism who is better against the run than he has any business being at his size. Isaac has a real knack for shedding and pursuing. His hard-charging style can push him into non-viable, road-to-nowhere angles upfield quickly when he tries to attack the outside, and his bull rush will get swatted away by NFL tackles. Isaac has an unorthodox game for an undersized EDGE – but the No. 93 pick wasn’t bad value on a guy I slotted eight spots lower.

Speaking of value, the Ravens got one of this year’s biggest steals when they pilfered CB T.J. Tampa at 4.130. Based on the tape, Tampa was a Round 2 value. But his testing underwhelmed, and he ended up getting lost in the shuffle.

Cincinnati Bengals | Draft Grade: C

I have a feeling that the Bengals will look back at this class in 10 years as either one of the best value exercises in franchise history, or as an utter disaster. Such is life when you are willing to accept elevated risk profiles in order to take the prospects with the highest ceiling in each slot. It’s funny, then, that my grading methodology ended up handing out a perfectly middle-of-the-road “C.”

Cincy set the tone for the theme of their draft from the outset with OT Amarius Mims, who I ranked as OT3 earlier in the process. This is what I wrote in my scouting report: “My belief in the ceiling remains but an honest assessment of the risk profile caused me to lower him slightly…

“Has elite length, power and hand usage. Length and punch make it extremely difficult to beat him around the outside in pass-pro off the right side. I am less concerned by Mims’ “inexperience” than others – he showed enough in his eight starts, along with his athletic and analytical profile, to project as a long-term standout starting RT at the next level.

Rather, my question about his next-level transition centers around his durability. Mims had tightrope surgery following an ankle injury against South Carolina last September. Then he suffered a right hamstring injury during testing at the NFL Combine.

It’s concerning that a 6-foot-8/340-pound prospect has suffered multiple lower-body injuries despite minimal collegiate playing time. Does that portend more issues to come or were both flukes? If the answer is the latter, Mims will be a standout starter for a long time. If it’s the former, that’s the scenario where Mims will not be allowed to take advantage of his natural physical gifts.”

Next came Michigan DT Kris Jenkins, the one conventional “chalky” pick the Bengals made of their first five selections. It was the correct slot on a high-floor, polished prospect who was well-coached in college, has NFL bloodlines, and has the athleticism of a former Feldman Freak Lister.

It was back to shooting for the moon at 3.80 with WR Jermaine Burton. Two months ago in an early draft of my WR rankings, I had Burton as high as WR12 on my board. This was based on my film observations only. But things I heard in the eight weeks leading up to the draft caused me to ding Burton on my board to his ultimate WR20 standing – including confirmation that multiple NFL teams had removed Burton from their draft boards over character concerns.

Burton faced intense public criticism after Alabama’s 2022 last-second loss to Tennessee after cameras appeared to catch him taking swipes at two different crowd-storming Vols fans – one of them a female – as he walked off the field. After wearing out his welcome at both Georgia and Alabama, he’s going to have to decide how committed he is to becoming what his toolbox suggests he could become.

I’m extremely bullish on TE Erick All – he is this class’ most gifted receiver at the position outside of Brock Bowers. All ended TE3 on my board and No. 97 overall after being ranked No. 155 on the consensus board. The Bengals took him No. 115.

His evaluation was clouded by medical questions. All suffered a season-ending ACL tear in October 2023 (at Iowa) one year after season-ending back injury ended his 2022 campaign prematurely (at Michigan). Those injuries held him to a mere 10 games the last two seasons.

All’s early-R4 price point may have raised eyebrows by those who ranked him lower. But he’s going to prove to be an enormous steal if his body doesn’t betray him. He’s exactly what we’ve been calling for the Bengals to draft for Joe Burrow for multiple years, and he was only available to them at this price because of the medical questions.

Cleveland Browns | Draft Grade: D+

The Browns were once again short on draft picks – finishing No. 32 in equity spent, a mile behind the next-lowest team – but fortunately, this was the last draft where picks had been sent out in the Deshaun Watson trade.

Either way – and as a yearly reminder – my draft grades only assess how each team did in the slots they used, primarily an ROI metric that gauges talent added against equity spent, with added consideration for addressing team needs, along with value added during draft-day trades.

This explanation is placed in this specific section so I can make the following point clear to those new to our grading process: The Browns did not get a D+ because they came in pick-poor. This is a pet-peeve of mine in the draft-grading cottage industry: Inflation and deflation based on equity alone. The Brows were also not penalized for residual damage of the Watson trade. (Had I done either, they would have gotten an F-).

No, the Browns earned their D+ the old fashioned way, by reaching in the slots they chose in. But they got the first pick right.

The Hall pick at 2.54 was so obvious I could have submitted the card – the local product who was clearly the top DL on the board at the time. Hall is a gap-shooting three-tech who turns up the heat on quarterbacks (while perhaps never providing much run-down value).

I was surprised OG Zak Zinter went as early as he did after he broke his leg in November, forcing him to sit out the pre-draft process. It felt like Cleveland paid full-price – and maybe even a little more – without any injury discount baked into his price.

Thrash was a boundary WR in college who projects for slot work in the NFL due to his size and lack of play strength. Don’t throw it to him when he’s covered – Thrash was a horrid 3-for-19 in contested situations last year. Hands weren’t a problem in the G5 in 2022, but his drop rate spiked to a red-flag 11.3% last year despite his aDOT falling from 15.0 to 11.1.

The best part of Thrash’s game is the shake he has with the ball in his hands. You’ll see him squirt through small openings on funnel screens into open grass and make the first man miss. Thrash had the same YAC average as Malik Nabers last year (6.6). But the upside is capped here due to the lack of size and strength with mediocre speed. Cleveland is advised to manufacture his touches early so he can leverage that YAC ability.

Pittsburgh Steelers | Draft Grade: A

The two keys for any draft are, 1) ROI on the talent you acquired at the draft-slot price you paid for it, and, 2) Plugging roster needs.

So many organizations settle for 1-for-2 by getting myopic on Rule No. 2, eschewing the more important Rule No. 1. We only get so many diamond cutter 2-for-2 processes each spring. The Steelers just had one of them.

Heading in, the Steelers needed two starting offensive linemen, a starting WR, and a starting CB. Not only did they get a legitimate guy for all four spots, but there’s a world where Pittsburgh’s first six picks are all starting next season!

Troy Fautanu was a dominant LT on the Washington Huskies’ high-powered offense. Despite concerns about his height, it appears that the Steelers will keep him there – Fautanu projects as the Week 1 starter at LT. Not only does Fautanu have the athleticism and technique for blind-side duties, but he also has the length – 34 1/2-inch arms – to play OT in the NFL.

C Zach Frazier falling to 2.53 was a stroke of luck for a team with a craterous hole at the pivot following the release of Mason Cole. A four-time high school state champion wrestler, Frazier took his grappling skills exclusively to the gridiron in college.

He’s a handful in the run game, with the leg drive and technique to win in a phone booth and the quickness and lateral agility to take out linebackers and be used as a puller. Frazier’s lack of reach – 32nd-percentile arm length – comes into play more in pass-pro, where longer interior players can get into his frame and quicker ones can evade his ability to recover on counters. While this may cap his ceiling, he’ll be a rock-solid NFL starter for the totality of his rookie contract.

I would bet my next paycheck that the same sentiment will prove true of WR Roman Wilson, the WR1 on last year’s national champs. Last year, Wilson was No. 1 in expected points added per route run and top-10 nationally in QB rating when targeted.

Wilson is a squirty, bursty route-runner who is tough to stick with one-on-one. He adjusts tempos at will, putting his man on a balance beam. Wilson fell because his lack of size and strength will relegate him to slot duties in the NFL. But this will also prevent him from being pressed. Wilson has short arms – tied for second-shortest of my top-15 WRs – and thus a smaller catch radius, but he’s reliable on anything he can reach.

No, really – Wilson had one drop and zero fumbles during Michigan’s undefeated 2023 title run (after two drops and zero fumbles in 2022). In an odd genetic quirk, Wilson has huge hands – bigger than Rome Odunze‘s, one-eighth-of-an-inch smaller than Marvin Harrison‘s, and the same size as Xavier Leggette’s. Since he never flubs balls, this should probably be discussed more.

LB Payton Wilson is a ridiculous athlete in a big package. When healthy, like he was last year, he’s a monster – winning the Butkus Award as the nation’s top LB. But durability is a huge concern. The other red flag on Wilson’s eval is the shortest arms of my top-20 ranked LBs. These facts elevated the risk, but by any measure he’s a risk worth taking at the end of R3.

Lastly, FCS OG Mason McCormick is a sneaky candidate to challenge for early playing time. For an organization in need of a talent infusion, the Steelers got it in a big way. My system says that Pittsburgh generated surplus talent in their slots equivalent to the creation of the No. 34 pick. That they did so while hitting so many positions of need was impressive.

AFC EAST

Buffalo Bills | Draft Grade: C-

The Bills clearly loved WR Keon Coleman. I at least appreciated that they picked up equity to trade back to the top of R2 to take him. Coleman never had an 800-yard season, and he left college with fewer than 1,500 career receiving yards.

But as a 19-year-old sophomore at Michigan State – where he also moonlighted early-on as a member of Tom Izzo’s basketball team! – Coleman had a 29% dominator rating. That year, he had more catches, more yards, and more TDs than second-rounder-to-be Jayden Reed, who was the veteran of that team.

Last year, at FSU, in games where both Coleman and QB Jordan Travis were healthy, those were the games where Coleman looked like a star. Coleman lit up LSU (9-122-3) and Clemson (5-86-2) and ended up averaging 5.5 catches for 77 yards and 1.3 TD per game in seven contests between September-October (when you omit the Boston College game played in 30+ mph wind gusts).

Things went south in November, first because of an injury that cost Coleman one game and had him playing less than 100 percent in multiple others. QB Jordan Travis‘ subsequent season-ending injury made matters all the worse – FSU’s backup quarterbacks were ghastly. Coleman ended up having only eight catches over three November games. In sum, of Coleman’s 87 targets in 2023, only 55 were charted as “catchable.” Coleman caught 50-of-55, with 11 going for a TD and 28 others turning into first downs.

Coleman’s 4.61 forty was the second-slowest of the WR group in Indianapolis, but he had the fastest gauntlet time of any receiver in Indianapolis, touching over 20 mph on the GPS while securing every catch – the only WR who could claim that.

This prospect type goes in Round 2 of every process. There are myriad examples of successes that Coleman closely resembles (Courtland Sutton and Tee Higgins being two). There are also plenty of busts you could comp him to (like JJ Arcega-Whiteside, or former first-rounder Kevin White). But Coleman couldn’t have mapped out a better landing spot than the one he got.

The Bills two other picks on Friday weren’t as sexy – S Cole Bishop and DL DeWayne Carter – but each was very good value on prospects who will see the field early.

For me, Buffalo’s Day 3 as a hit-or-miss affair. But I really liked the two-step of LB Edefuan Ulofoshio and EDGE Javon Solomon at the end of R5. Each was an unorthodox prospect in their own way, so it wasn’t a surprise they filtered down into their respective slots, but I’m bullish that each will return value on them.

Miami Dolphins | Draft Grade: B

Despite my as-a-fan-hopes that Miami would throw caution to the wind and add Xavier Worthy to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins, in the end, exercised more discretion by popping EDGE Chop Robinson.

Robinson has the speed, quickness and bend to steal the outside shoulder. He also has an effective bull rush for those who compensate too far to try to account for his speed. He is not a finished product as a pass-rusher, but he already has a bag of pass-rushing moves.

While Robinson’s pressure rates were elite in college, he had trouble converting his myriad pressures into sacks. He also misses too many tackles and has short arms, which is why he was available outside the top-20. Robinson’ lack of girth hurts in the run game, where he is inconsistent setting the edge.

Miami missed out on the epic OT run early, but they still managed to get solid value at 2.55 with Patrick Paul. I ranked Paul nearly identically, at No. 54. He’s not sexy, but he has experience and length in spades, and he should in quick order enter the starting lineup.

Many raised eyebrows at the RB Jaylen Wright pick. But the Dolphins were all over Wright during the pre-draft process – in mid-April, I was told that Miami was Wright’s most intense suitor. That initially surprised me, too.

But I had the intervening weeks to mull it over and discuss the topic with those that know NFL situations more than I do. Miami knows De’Von Achane isn’t a 250-touch bellcow, and yet they want Achane-caliber turbo-speed on the field every single down. That problem has now been solved. Here’s the cool part about the potential platoon: Wright is not only a strong receiver, but he’s an underrated pass-blocker.

Elsewhere on Saturday, Miami further tried to prove they were drafting off the Thor500 by taking EDGE Mohamed Kamara in the exact same slot I ranked him (No. 158). For their last trick, the Dolphins pulled a pair of receivers named Washington at awesome values – Malik and Tahj. Malik’s value was, in particular, an incredible steal… he is what people think Malachi Corley is.

New England Patriots | Draft Grade: F

By my numbers, the Patriots spent the fourth-most draft capital in the NFL. But they squandered the most draft equity in the NFL, while finishing No. 31 in ROI. This is, of course, an analysis based solely on pick value against prospect value as my board sees it – and, to be fair, many ranked QB Drake Maye above the No. 8 slot where he sat in my rankings.

But outside of the Javon Baker steal on Saturday – he could ascend to WR1 duties in New England very, very quickly – four of the next five picks after Maye were egregious reaches.

The first of those, WR Ja’Lynn Polk, may be fool’s gold. Polk posted a 69-1159-9 receiving line last year. But he was Washington’s clear WR3 behind Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan when all three were healthy. Polk did not become a bigger facet of the offense until McMillan went down last year. In the five games after McMillan’s injury, Polk exceeded 100 yards four times.

But in the last seven games of the 2023 season – from the start of November through the end of the CFP run, against the heart of Washington’s schedule, with McMillan back for the last four – Polk returned to his original backseat WR3 role, posting a pedestrian 23-323-2 receiving line. That included two games where Polk was healthy and active but got held to… zero catches!

Over those seven games, in one of the country’s most pass-happy offenses, when it mattered the most, Polk averaged three catches for 46 yards per game. He has good hands, but he lacks the athleticism of an NFL boundary receiver. I see an efficient but non-explosive big slot receiver at the next level who isn’t great after the catch.

There simply isn’t a ton of value to that, and that is reflected in my mid-R4 grade. This might feel harsh in relation to where the Patriots took him. It’s truly not. In an alternate reality where Jalen McMillan never gets injured, Polk almost assuredly doesn’t even go as high as that.

New England got caught on the wrong end of the epic early offensive line run. They multiplied that problem by forcing a pair of picks at the position at No. 68 (OT Caedan Wallace) and No. 103 (Layden Robinson), and reaching on prospects who had more risk in their evaluation than safer prospects at the same positions who were still available.

Time will tell if New England’s new brass proves my initial assessment wrong. If Drake Maye becomes a superstar, it will be – none of the rest of it will matter.

But New England’s roster is so barren of talent, and Maye is so in need of patience and a solid supporting cast around him – his most ardent supporters’ primary argument for his 2023 regression was supporting cast – that one wonders if the Patriots brass did him justice with the decisions that followed his selection.

New York Jets | Draft Grade: D-

It’s obvious that the Jets liked OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu more than I did. And that’s fine – I understand the appeal. I also understand that the Jets only have short-term fixes at OT and felt they needed to grab a long-term solution. Philosophically, I also understand that.

My issue is… why is a win-now team using a premium pick on a prospect who may be OT3 in 2023? The Jets came into the draft with only two legitimate aerial weapons for Aaron Rodgers – WRs Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams.

Why was there not a more legitimate push to trade up to beat the Bears to the punch for WR Rome Odunze? If bumbling Falcons GM Terry Fontenot could not be saved from himself, would Tennessee at least have considered it?

Outside of that, I think the Jets will come to regret passing on TE Brock Bowers, who would have helped to address both the slot/TE needs… Bowers is not a TE, he’s a yard-gainer you can line up as either a slot or a TE (or basically anywhere else).

I’m not a fan of Corley. I believe he’s a RB playing slot WR (he began his career at WKU as an RB after initially signing as a CB). Yes, he was tank after the catch in college football’s worst FBS conference, leading this class with 40 broken tackles in 2022.

Corley doesn’t really run routes. WKU manufactured most of his touches for him. Over the past two seasons, Corley had 89 catches behind the line of scrimmage – he led the nation in screen yards both times. Conversely, he caught just 15 balls 20-plus yards downfield. Corley had a troubling 23.5% contested catch rate last year despite a 5.5 aDOT that ranked No. 495 in the FBS.

He doesn’t show much nuance or tactical footwork when asked to go downfield, instead blurring a straight line with an unconvincing deke as the gain-a-step gambit. This area of his game needs to be built from the ground up if he is to become more than a gadget guy.

I comped Corley to Amari Rodgers, another hyped manufactured-touch RB-in-WR clothing who I argued against during the draft process. We’re about to find out if fate has a sense of humor, or if Aaron Rodgers has become more amenable to shuttling pre-delineated behind-the-line layup looks to a Day 2 rookie that management says is supposed to be the new starting slot.

Check out my NFC Draft Grades here.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos | Draft Grade: D

Bo Nix enters the NFL off a statistically dominant season (45/3 TD/INT). His accuracy numbers surged from around 60% in his first three seasons at Auburn to around 75% in his last two years at Oregon.

Nix was also flattered by Oregon’s gimmicky spread offense that told him where the ball was going pre-snap based on defensive alignment and numbers. After the snap, Nix would often immediately shuttle the ball to that first read. Last year, only three FBS quarterbacks had an average release time quicker than Nix. His aDOT ranked No. 93 in the FBS.

Oregon’s scheme not only juiced his accuracy numbers, but it also kept the ball out of harm’s way while inoculating Nix from pressure. All three of these things were issues at Auburn, and all were addressed not necessarily through Nix’s improvement, but by the offensive scheme itself.

Regardless of the system he’s playing in, risk-aversion is a hallmark of Nix’s game. Nix attempted more screen passes in four of his five individual collegiate seasons than JJ McCarthy did in his entire collegiate career! And get this – Nix attempted more as a fifth-year senior at Oregon than he did as a freshman starter at Auburn under Gus Malzahn.

Nix’s supporters are big counting stat citers. College counting stats are meaningless for pro projection without context. And this is why Bo Nix supporters are not big on context. Remove Bo Nix‘s 418 career screen passes – the layups – off his passing ledger, and you batter his accuracy percentage. That makes it harder to continue making the argument that a center who only attempts put-backs is a better shooter than Steph Curry.

Nix has average arm strength. While his repeatable upper-body throwing motion allows him to generate decent intermediate velocity with spin, his downfield attempts have always lacked consistent touch and placement. That’s because he needs to throw the kitchen sink to get the ball down there.

At the NFL level, Nix’s legs will chip in a little value alongside his short-and-intermediate accuracy. But Nix is going to have to learn to stand in the pocket, go through his reads post-snap, and get far more aggressive muscling balls into windows and throwing downfield – he won’t have a choice with superior athletes on the field. Already 24, I’m dubious of his odds of becoming something in the NFL that we’ve never seen him be.

While I hated that pick, I loved Denver’s decision to add Nix’s favorite toy WR Troy Franklin after Franklin surprisingly dropped out of Day 2. Denver pulled the trigger immediately when the bell opened on Saturday, popping Franklin at No. 102.

To add further bizarro symmetry, Franklin’s closest size/athleticism comparison currently playing in the NFL is… Marvin Mims Jr.! If nothing else, Franklin was great value at an area of enormous need.

Kansas City Chiefs | Draft Grade: A-

The verdict on the 2024 Chiefs draft class will come down to whether Kansas City made the correct decision to prioritize their WR need over their OT need in Round 1.

Upon trading up to 1.28, Kansas City picked speed-demon WR Xavier Worthy – record-setting 4.21 forty at the NFL Combine – over OT Tyler Guyton. This was interesting because, by that point, the OT group had been picked clean – Guyton was the last prospect on that positional board who was a heavy betting favorite to go in R1.

But Kansas City clearly loved Worthy. And boy is he a fun pick, one that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offensive brass are no-doubt hoping replicates some of what Tyreek Hill used to provide the offense.

Worthy’s game and frame are more reminiscent of DeSean Jackson, and, more recently, Hollywood Brown and Tank Dell. He is a slippery burner with natural separation skills. The athleticism and lightning-quick feet make him extremely difficult to stay within space. Worthy had 197 catches and 26 TDs over three seasons at Texas.

Worthy is a good route-runner – independent of his athleticism – who sets up defenders to fail before the ball has been thrown, and he’s shown the ability to win at all three levels while handling heavy usage in Austin.

I have only one real concern about Worthy, and it has nothing to do with his weight. His ball skills need real work. On tape, Worthy’s drops fell into two buckets: 1) Bad technique, and 2) Poor concentration. The fact the issue couldn’t be isolated to one fixable thing bears mentioning.

The technique aspect has to do with a bad habit of excessive body-catching – letting balls get into his frame and trapping them against his torso. This doesn’t occur every catch – I saw impressive instances of extension for bucket throws, for instance – but his odds of securing the ball plummet in instances it crops up.

Beyond that, Worthy has a smaller catch radius and isn’t reliable on stuff soundly outside his frame. Worthy had 12 charted drops the last two years, but even that number seems generous – I sure feel like I saw more.

Worthy has lightning-in-a-bottle athleticism. But the lack of money-in-the-bank reliability is what ultimately cost him a Round 1 grade in a split decision on my board. If he can button that part of his game up, we’re in for another decade of DeSean Jackson-like highlights.

The Chiefs took a big chance in bypassing Tyler Guyton for Worthy. But fortunate smiled upon them when BYU OT Kingsley Suamataia slipped to 2.63. Suamataia has Round 1 talent, but perhaps Round 4 tape from last year – cleaning up the consistency and the technique will be key.

But Suamataia, the cousin of Penei Sewell, is a former five-star recruit with a sterling analytical profile – strong splits and a best-in-class bench press despite above-average arm length. His catalog of best reps is as flashy as anyone’s, and he has extensive experience at both LT/RT. Kansas City is advised to exercise patience in Year 1, and I’m sure that’s what the plan is.

Las Vegas Raiders | Draft Grade: B+

I’m surprised the Raiders got criticism for the Brock Bowers pick. I ardently believe that it will be proven out that Las Vegas improved its passing game more by taking Bowers at 1.13 than division-rival Denver did by taking QB Bo Nix one slot higher.

When he arrived in Athens, Georgia’s receiving room featured George Pickens, Adonai Mitchell, Ladd McConkey, Jermaine Burton, Kearis Jackson, and Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, and the Bulldogs had another NFL tight end in Darnell Washington (along with a premier pass-catching NFL RB in James Cook). No matter. Bowers led Georgia in receiving all three years on campus and was a first-team All-American each season – the Bulldogs went 42-2 during that span with two national titles.

As a true freshman on the national title-winning 2021 team, Bowers set the school’s single-season TE records for receptions (56), receiving yards (882), and TD (13). Last year, Bowers only played in 10 games due to a high-ankle sprain. He could have shut it down with the NFL Draft on the horizon. But with a three-peat in play, Bowers opted for TightRope surgery and returned 26 days later. He was not 100-percent, but Bowers gutted it out .

To hear Kirby Smart talk about it, Georgia only scratched the surface of Bowers’ utility. The Bulldogs gave Bowers 19 carries over three seasons – which he converted into 193 yards and five TD (10.2 YPC). Smart said if they had shifted Bowers to RB, Bowers would have been the team’s best running back. In the NFL, Bowers’ bonus running utility, which can be leveraged on gadget plays and near the goal line, gives him a Deebo-of-TEs feel.

Offensive coordinators love Bowers, because he’s a hide-the-ball-in-the-cup game every play against the opposing coordinator. You can – quite literally – line Bowers up anywhere. I hate the terms “offensive weapon” and “chess piece.” But, as descriptive designations, these labels more accurately describe Bowers than “tight end.”

Bowers is a smooth, controlled, tempo-adjusting route-runner with an eye for detail and a bloodlust for using a defender’s leverage against him. Along his route, you notice all kinds of subtle false tells, unorthodox upper-body movements, head deeks, false steps. He keeps you off-balance into the route-break and brings precise, sudden footwork into them, with turbo-button acceleration out the other side.

Now that he’s won separation and the ball is headed his way, it’s a given that it’s a completion so long as the ball is anywhere near his area code. Bowers’ 4.4% drop rate in college is miniscule. Bowers is a tackle-breaking menace. In 2023, he led this class with 18, despite playing in only 10 games, multiple of those at less than 100-percent! Over his three-year career, Bowers broke 44 tackle attempts. Last spring, readers will recall me waxing poetic about Sam LaPorta‘s aptitude in this area… LaPorta broke 36 over four years.

With the ball in his hands, Bowers combines elite speed and change-of-direction for the position. He also, to Kirby Smart’s earlier point about his theoretical RB-skillset, has sublime open-field vision, the ever-rare tight end who will do things like cut back against the grain, or slow down to allow a teammate to execute a block.

The Raiders, like the Broncos, project to have mediocre QB play. The difference is that the Raiders now have a yard-creator in the aerial phase – which will have the effect of making the Raiders QB play appear better than it is.

Las Vegas hit the offensive line with their next two picks, getting sensational value on plug-and-play Oregon C/OG Jackson Powers-Johnson at 2.44. Powers-Johnson had an extremely impressive Senior Bowl week following a sterling final season on the college gridiron, stone-walling all comers in one-on-ones.

In my offensive line rankings, I wrote, vis-a-vis the Raiders’ next pick: “Delmar Glaze is a sleeper. Many automatically project him to guard due to his frame. But he was a fabulous pass-blocking OT in the Big Ten – RT in 2022, LT in 2023 – who shut down Ohio State’s Jack Sawyer in a marquee matchup last fall. Glaze has the fluidity, length and strong hands to become a starting RT at the next level.”

Compared to boards around the industry, I was extremely bullish, ranking Glaze No. 111 overall. On Arif Hassan’s annual consensus big board, Glaze checked in at No. 154. Turns out the Raiders were even more bullish than me.

Los Angeles Chargers | Draft Grade: A-

Turns out Jim Harbaugh hasn’t forgotten how to draft. His exposure to the college game in recent years appears to have also helped the Chargers in identifying values down the board. At the top of it, OT Joe Alt was a fitting first pick for the Harbaugh era in Los Angeles.

Alt, the son of two-time Pro Bowler John Alt, was a high school TE and DE who also played basketball. He shifted to OT late, but took to it very quickly – and is still, intriguingly, still getting better. Alt allowed two sacks over 25 starts on the blind side at Notre Dame.

Alt is one of the most patient collegiate tackles you’ll see in pass-pro. He forces his man to come into his frame to try to generate separation. In this way, Alt is the one who has set the trap – at that point, you’re trying to swim through a tsunami of length and strength. Trying to steal the edge from him is a losing battle – his feet are too quick, his arms are too long, and his understanding of angles is too great.

In the run game, he’s a load coming forward with powerful leg drive to generate movement and clear lanes. Alt is the complete package. He’s a two-way tackle who excelled at the highest level – 90+ Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades each of the last two seasons – with a prototype build and athletic profile, and NFL bloodlines coursing through his veins. He’s the type you can build your offensive line around for the next decade.

Ladd McConkey was a steal in R2. McConkey played on the outside in Georgia’s 12-personnel offense and is likely to do the same with the Chargers. He’s going to start immediately and remind you of Jordan Addison.

If you leave one defender on McConkey in man coverage, McConkey’s shaking him. It just is what it is. He’s extremely sudden into and out of route breaks. Every break is Origami, a clean angle. He flees the crime scene with high-octane acceleration. Zone coverage won’t save you. McConkey is devilishly clever against it, sussing out coverage sectors immediately and parking himself in your sore spot.

In 2023, more than 80% of the balls that left the quarterback’s hands headed in McConkey’s direction became completions. That wasn’t courtesy of a diet of spoon-fed targets – McConkey’s 12.2 aDOT was the exact same as Malik Nabers‘. McConkey’s 3.26 YPRR ranked No. 4 among FBS prospects in this class. McConkey’s ankle-breaking agility plays with the ball in his hands – he makes defenders miss and forces off-angle attempts in space. McConkey broke four more tackles than Marvin Harrison Jr. on 50 less receptions, and five less than Rome Odunze on 62 fewer catches.

In Round 3, Harbaugh stole the second-level leader of his nasty title-winning Michigan defense, Junior Colson, who I ranked as the top LB in this class. I was surprised the NFL let Harbaugh have Colson roughly one full round later than I believed Colson should go.

The pick on Saturday to keep an eye on is RB Kimani Vidal. Vidal has a battering-ram style, low to the ground and hard-charging. He packs a surprising amount of power into his sawed-off frame, particularly once he’s begun accelerating. Very good contact balance – Vidal bounces off off-angle attempts and continues upfield.

=Vidal faced myriad stacked boxes in college as opponents attempted to stop him. Does not have joystick agility in space but Vidal is shifty and bouncy in tight quarters and is tough to square up. Vidal’s combination of agility and power led to 92 broken tackles in 2023, second-most in the nation. Tackle-breaking machinations include a nasty stiff-arm in space. Proved he could handle bell-cow usage with over 300 touches last season. Vidal is also a tough, assignment-sound pass-blocker who might be the best pass-blocking RB in this class.

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans | Draft Grade: D-

The Texans didn’t have a R1 pick because of last-month’s trade-down with the Vikings that added a 2025 R2 that was subsequently used to acquire Stefon Diggs. You can have whatever opinion you want about that transaction. We’re here to discuss how the team did this weekend. Didn’t love it.

With their pair of second-rounders, Houston took a CB (Kamari Lassiter) who lacks foot speed and needs to play nickel and an OT (Blake Fisher) who arguably should have returned for one more year of school.

The Texans got acceptable value on one prospect – Ohio State TE Cade Stover. I was lower on Stover than most, ranking him No. 125 against his No. 98 standing on the consensus big board. The Texans ended up taking him in the No. 123 slot. Stover is a springy athlete with a commendable fluidity to him along his route-path for someone so relatively new to the position full-time. Per Sumer Sports, Stover was No. 3 in both average separation rate and separation in air rate of the top-6 consensus TEs.

Stover’s most impressive attribute is his hands. He dropped zero balls in 2023. Not only that, but Stover is the only TE in this class who converted every single one of his charted catchable targets into targets – a perfect 45-for-45. Over 108 career targets, Stover dropped only two balls. He left college with an eye-popping 2.4% drop rate.

I don’t see him as a seam-stretcher in the NFL. I’d isolate his looks to the short and intermediate range, where he’s money-in-the-bank reliable on targets, and can leverage his YAC ability. Stover needs real work as a blocker. Stover got pushed around in the phone booth. He needs to continue working on his technique and core strength.

Houston has done a strong job building up the offensive side of the ball. They had a shot in this draft to build up the trenches and the back-end of the defense. They clearly did not see this year’s prospects like I did.

Indianapolis Colts | Draft Grade: C-

Indianapolis zigged when the NFL was zagging, ending the record 14-straight offensive players to begin the draft by taking Laiatu Latu. I’m a huge fan of Latu’s game. If his body doesn’t betray him, he will be a star. That is, of course, a big if.

Latu was forced to briefly medically retire in 2021 as a member of the Washington Huskies due to a neck injury. But he played over 1,000 snaps the past two seasons and was a pass-rushing terror. Latu had 17 sacks in only 623 pass-rushes over that time.

And while I spent the spring on an island arguing that WR AD Mitchell was, in fact, categorically not a first-rounder, taking him at No. 52 was perfectly fine. Particularly for a team he’s a perfect fit for. Mitchell is a size/speed super freak, with 4.34 wheels and a 98th-percentile broad jump in a big package.

He’s a long-strider who needs a runway to build up to his speed. Mitchell’s 10-yard split on that 4.34 equaled Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen Coker, who ran 4.52 and 4.57 forties, respectively. Mitchell gets faster the further you go down the field, and there simply aren’t many humans alive who can match his top gear – the list of those his size is far smaller still.

But the reason his production profile in college was always hit-and-miss is because when he isn’t connecting on moon-shot dingers, he’s striking out. On a great passing offense last year, Mitchell finished with 35 or fewer receiving yards in half of Texas’ games (seven of 14). But he went over 140 yards twice and cracked 100 in a third. In those three games, he averaged 16.6 YPC.

I see Mitchell the opposite way most do. I heard the opinion over and over again this spring that Mitchell has an enormous WR1 ceiling if you can stomach risk. It’s the opposite: He has a relatively high floor – as your prototypical pop-the-top WR2 – but only a mid-tier ceiling. Mitchell does not change directions well enough nor run routes crisply enough to become an alpha NFL WR1, and his loafing reps on film don’t suggest dogged determination at the margins. But the field-stretching he provides is exactly what Indy was looking for, and they didn’t egregiously overpay to get it.

While I liked the first two picks, the rest of this class was a whiff for me. To pay the 3.79 slot for Goncalves, Indy must see him as an OT in the NFL – I think he’s ultimately going to need to move inside.

My bigger issue was the Colts’ procession of reaches on Saturday, slowing momentum after a hot start.

Jacksonville Jaguars | Draft Grade: D+

Similarly to the Colts, I loved what the Jags did early and hate what they did late.

But Jacksonville’s start was indeed strong, beginning with picking up a R4 (No. 157) along with R3 and R4 picks in 2025 from the Vikings to hop down from No. 17 to No. 23. The Jaguars took WR Brian Thomas Jr. in that slot, and paired him high-upside LSU teammates DT Maason Smith one round later.

Thomas Jr made the leap in 2023, with a stellar 68-1177-17 receiving line in the SEC. His advanced stats are dazzling. Thomas Jr. was 82nd percentile against single coverage, 88th percentile in separation rate and 89th percentile in separation rate against single coverage.

Not only that, but Thomas’ 147.8 passer rating on targets was the best of my top-20 ranked receivers. A gazelle of an athlete and a former star high school basketball player, Thomas is a special downfield playmaker.

Last year, his one season of stardom in college football, Thomas ran an extremely pared-down route tree that rarely asked him to change directions horizontally. Roughly two-thirds of Thomas’ routes were either go-routes, comebacks, or slants. Many of Thomas’ wins came courtesy of his athleticism.

If that continues to be the case at the next level – if his usage remains case-specific because he never becomes skilled at creating separation with nuance or acumen – Thomas will be a good NFL WR2. But if Thomas improves his route-running and becomes a complete receiver, he has all the physical ability needed to become a star WR1 at the next level. That part of it is totally theoretical.

Smith is the true boom-or-bust player in this DT class. A former top-20 overall recruit, Smith is rangy with very long arms (3500) and posted elite agility scores at over 300 pounds. Still, he started only 17 games in college, missing some of 2021 with a shoulder injury, almost all of 2022 with a knee injury and the 2023 opener while suspended.

For the record, the suspension was for ridiculous reasons; Smith got paid for autographs right before the NIL rules went into effect that made such things above-board and commonplace. After declaring following his third year, Smith is extremely raw. But the ceiling is very high.

Beyond that, however, I was confused by what Jacksonville was doing. I saw a procession of reaches – with the exception of Myles Cole, a ludicrously long-levered interior player who fits what this personnel department fetishizes – from R3-R7.

Tennessee Titans | Draft Grade: C+

In taking OT JC Latham and DL T’Vondre Sweat, the Titans had added over 700 pounds of beef before we had even reached pick No. 40.

Latham, a former five-star recruit and a Second-Team All-American in 2023, has huge power along with great coordination and balance for his size. Cruise ship anchor in pass-pro. Only speed can frustrate him – lack of elite lateral agility can get him in trouble on inside counters. For this reason I saw him as a RT – a very, very good one – but the Titans said post-draft that they’re going to start him at LT. This makes sense from a perspective of their need – the situation is dire – but Latham will need to prove he has the foot speed to hang on the blind side in the NFL.

Sweat is a planet-sized colossus on the other side of the line of scrimmage. He overshadowed Byron Murphy, and it wasn’t only because he blocked out the sun. Sweat won the Outland Trophy in 2023. He profiles as an elite run-stuffer, but will likely be an early-down defender in the NFL who is yanked off the field om obvious passing downs.

I thought Sweat would fall to Round 3 because of that, and following his arrest for DWI on April 7. It felt like the Titans took him at the top of his price range in a vacuum, as though the April 7 incident never occurred.

On Saturday, the Titans started out cooking. Two of my favorite Day 3 defenders were LB Cedric Gray and CB Jarvis Brownlee Jr. – Tennessee popped them in Round 4 and Round 5, respectively.

Gray was stranded on a horrible defense but did yeomen down-to-work as a multi-purpose linebacker. Not only that, but he’ll be a core special teamer from the jump just like he was at UNC.

Brownlee is my kind of corner. He’s a little undersized, and he’s not a stud athlete, but he’s in your chest off the snap and in your hip pocket from there – you feel his presence every play. He’s also one of the select CBs in this class who is happy to fly downhill and smack an RB in run support.

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