With the NFL Draft on the horizon, there will be a lot of change in the fantasy football landscape in the coming weeks. Some players will be worth bypassing because of the potential changes that could happen in the draft and others do not stack up as good picks. Below are six best ball players to avoid.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Best Ball Players to Avoid
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)
There is no denying that De’Von Achane had some fantastic highs in his 2023 rookie season. His 51.3 PPR-point game in Week 2 was the third-highest amount any player scored in an individual week last season and he was the only rookie skill position player to score over 33 points in a single game. That kind of ceiling is incredibly appealing but Achane is currently being drafted as the RB6 on Underdog with an average draft position (ADP) of 19.6 — a very steep price for a player who averaged 12.7 points per game from Week 11 onwards. The knock on Achane coming out of college was that his 5-foot-9, 188-pound frame was too small to hold up in the NFL. After playing over 30% of the snaps in just eight games, it’s hard to argue that isn’t true. With Raheem Mostert signing an extension, it’s clear Achane isn’t a three-down back, but he’s being drafted like he is.
DJ Moore (WR – CHI)
The Bears sought to bring in more talent to their receiver room to let Caleb Williams presumably hit the ground running if they elect to draft him first overall. Adding Keenan Allen is excellent for Williams but horrendous for DJ Moore, who is being drafted as the WR15 at pick 22.8. Allen is WR27 with an ADP of 43.2. Allen is fresh off his best season in years, leading the league with 11.5 targets per game. Allen will likely move into Chicago’s slot most often, allowing him the easier catches and forcing Moore to the outside where he might catch more highlight reel balls. They have a lower probability catch rate and will be tough for a rookie quarterback to make, even one as promising as Williams. Allen was the half-PPR WR3 in 2023, while Moore was the WR10. Neither are particularly bad options, but at cost, it’s hard to argue for Moore ahead of Allen, not to mention the Bears continually get linked to a top-three wide receiver in this draft.
Caleb Williams might have the strongest Year 1 pass-catching group of any No. 1 pick ever?
WR DJ Moore
WR Keenan Allen
TE Cole Kmet
TE Gerald Everett
RB D’Andre Swift#Bears also could use No. 9 pick at WR or Brock Bowers.— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) April 6, 2024
Jakobi Meyers (WR – LV)
The Raiders limped to the end of the season with some feisty performances that almost forced the hand of ownership to give Antonio Pierce a longer-term contract. They also knew that depending on Aidan O’Connell as a long-term option might not be the answer and sought to bring in competition in the form of Gardner Minshew. Neither of those players might be enough to sustain their wide receivers. Minshew ranked 23rd in catchable pass rate and O’Connell ranked 32nd. Both players averaged 197 passing yards per game, despite their defenses often putting them in pass-heavy scripts. In 2023, the Raiders had three games where both Jakobi Meyers and Davante Adams finished inside the top 24 of fantasy wide receivers in the same week, with one of those coming with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback. Everything Antonio Pierce has said suggests running the ball will continue to be the mainstay of their identity. Meyers might pop up with the occasional useful week, but at pick 105.7, it’s in a range where the running backs, quarterbacks and tight ends are more interesting.
D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI)
This article isn’t solely aiming to bash the ADP of Chicago Bears players, particularly when they look set to be more interesting than they have been in years. But for now, some of them have higher costs than we’d like. D’Andre Swift is the RB20, being drafted at pick 86.8, ahead of Raheem Mostert and just behind Tony Pollard. Swift had the second-highest rushing success rate of his career in 2023, but the Eagles’ offensive line was a big part of that. Swift also set career-highs in rushing yards per game (65), attempts per game (14.3) and games played (16). He now finds himself in a three-way committee with Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert, who both go in the 170-pick range of drafts. The Bears saw adding Swift as a priority but until they reduce this committee to a smaller number, it’s easier to wait and see how things shake out as the offseason goes on.
rushing TDs of D’Andre Swift’s teammates:
2022: Jamaal Williams (17)
2023: Jalen Hurts (15)
2024: Roschon Johnson?— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) March 15, 2024
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)
When Sean Payton arrived in Denver he saw adding another running back as a priority as Javonte Williams came off a serious multi-ligament knee injury. It was largely expected that Samaje Perine would be the one to eat into Williams’ work, after an impressive 2022 campaign with the Bengals. Ultimately, though, it was rookie Jaleel McLaughlin who took on the Perine role, averaging 7.3 touches per game from Week 4 onwards. This wasn’t necessarily enough to make McLaughlin consistently relevant, with him finishing as the RB37 on average in that spell, but it was enough to ding Williams’ upside. Williams ranked 17th in average touches per game but in an inefficient offense that wasn’t enough to return value. With McLaughlin more established now and the offense still looking like it’ll be hard work, it might be another season of mediocrity ahead for Williams, who is being drafted at pick 94.
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)
The Browns brought in the more than capable D’Onta Foreman to share the expected workload with Jerome Ford, who was steady last year, but far from an every-down type of player. Nick Chubb underwent multiple surgeries to deal with ACL injury that also included other ligament damage. Breece Hall showed us last year that younger running backs coming off a clean ACL tear can be productive straight away. When other ligaments are involved, like with JK Dobbins, Javonte Williams and Kyler Murray, then typically it’s a trickier recovery ahead. Not to mention that Nick Chubb is turning 29 this year and never had the pass-catching upside to bulk his stats. If Chubb can’t break away nor command large volume, it’s tough to imagine him regaining his every-down role.
More Best Ball Draft Advice
- Erickson’s Must-Have Best Ball Draft Targets (Premium)
- Fitz’s Must-Have Best Ball Draft Targets (Premium)
- DBro’s Must-Have Best Ball Draft Targets (Premium)
- Hoppen’s Must-Have Best Ball Draft Targets (Premium)
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