Rookie fever is in full swing with the NFL Draft approaching. Dynasty fantasy football managers eagerly await rookie drafts to get underway to see the infusion of young talent their rosters will receive. At this point in the NFL offseason, it’s easy to see pure upside or only the best possible outcome for every player selected.

• 2024 NFL Mock Drafts
• Expert Consensus 2024 NFL Mock Draft
• 2024 NFL Draft Guide
• 2024 NFL Draft Prospect Profiles

The harsh reality is that many players will fail to realize their full potential and dynasty managers will be disappointed that some of their early-round selections did not pan out as they had hoped. It’s important not to get swept up in hype season and to recognize that tempering expectations with some players is your best bet. From the 2024 rookie class, these are the dynasty rookies I’m tempering expectations on.

Dynasty Rookies Set to Disappoint

Xavier Legette (WR – South Carolina)

Xavier Legette blew up the NFL Scouting Combine by running a 4.39-second forty-yard dash and recording a 40″ vertical jump. The athleticism is, without a doubt, intriguing, but the track record of production remains concerning. It took until Legette was a fifth-year senior at South Carolina for him to have his true breakout season. In the four seasons before 2023, Legette’s college career-high marks were 18 receptions for 167 yards and three touchdowns in 2022.

Legette was a non-factor for four consecutive years before breaking out — a red flag no matter how we slice it. Combine that with the fact he still needs to develop as a route runner and refine his release package at the line of scrimmage to consistently beat press coverage and it becomes difficult to see a path toward Legette being a consistent fantasy contributor. There are other players I’d rather spend the second-round draft capital it could cost to select Legette in many rookie drafts.

Bo Nix (QB – Oregon) & Michael Penix Jr. (QB – Washington)

To be fair, I like Michael Penix Jr. as a player more than I like Bo Nix, but I’m not particularly bullish on selecting either one in rookie drafts where I suspect they’ll come off the board. Quarterback valuations swing wildly depending on draft capital, so there is a chance they come off the board later than expected and become later-round dart throws, but it feels much more likely Nix and Penix Jr. both hear their names called on day two of the NFL Draft. If that is the case, I expect both signal-callers to be selected in the second round of plenty of Superflex rookie drafts.

If the price for acquiring both players costs me a second-round rookie pick, I’ll pass more often than not. The depth of the wide receiver class will push very good wide receiver prospects into round two that I’d be far more keen on selecting than rolling the dice on two quarterbacks who I believe need everything around them to go perfectly for success to come their way, and that’s before bringing up Penix Jr’s injury history.

Penix Jr. is a pocket passer with a lengthy injury history and a big arm who will need a stellar offensive line to keep him upright. Nix has enjoyed a quarterback-friendly scheme the past few seasons in Oregon after a tumultuous start to his college career at Auburn. If my team were quarterback-needy, I’d rather plot a way to move up in the draft and select one of the top-four options at the position.

Jonathon Brooks (RB – Texas)

In 2023, Jonathon Brooks had the first chance to grab hold of the lead back role for Texas, He had a terrific season, totaling 1,139 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on just 187 rushing attempts. Unfortunately, his season ended with a torn ACL against TCU in November. While ACL injuries aren’t the death blow for running backs they’d been seen as in the past, it’s still less than ideal when the player many consider the RB1 of this rookie class is working his way back from a serious injury that occurred late in the college season.

I expect Brooks to still have a productive NFL career. Given the injury, though, I struggle to value him as highly as the consensus seems to. He has explosive upside but I see a player who, at times, I wish would run with more power given his size (6-foot-0, 216 pounds).

If he was a player I could snag late in round two of rookie drafts and be patient with the upside I could be sold to take that approach. I expect him to come off the board much earlier than that and even sneak into round one of some drafts by managers desperate for help at the running back position. The 2024 running back class being underwhelming overall will push a player like Brooks up the board. I’d be very cautious in expecting big returns in year one.

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