Nino Lombardi | Tue, Apr 9th 2024, 6:07am EDT

3 Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers to Target (2024)

Uncovering hidden gems in the later rounds of fantasy drafts gives managers a significant advantage over their peers. Oftentimes, it comes down to identifying talented players with a realistic path to earning substantial roles in their offenses. Those who took a late flyer on Puka Nacua in 2023 drafts reaped the benefits of week-to-week fantasy production.

Nacua was a player who, while relatively unknown, had a chance to quickly climb the Rams’ thin WR depth chart. Throughout the offseason, our goal will be to pinpoint players who, like Nacua, provide an interesting blend of talent and potential usage. Below are some names to monitor along with their current Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR).

Way Too Early Redraft Players to Target

Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR)

Chuba Hubbard will enter the 2024 season as the presumed starting RB for the Carolina Panthers. He’s one of the standout players in an offense believed to be the league’s worst. This unit is led by a QB who, after being a highly-touted prospect, has struggled thus far in the NFL. Newly-appointed head coach Dave Canales was hired due to his offensive expertise and ability to facilitate the passing game. As you may have noticed by now, Hubbard’s 2024 outlook very closely mimics Rachaad White‘s before last season. White surprised most fantasy managers and finished as the RB7 in half-PPR formats.

Admittedly, it would be a stretch to say Hubbard will finish as this season’s RB7 given how porous this offense was last year. The unit will nevertheless make considerable improvements next season. Dave Canales has a track record of helping QBs find their game in the NFL. He played a massive role in Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield changing the course of their respective careers. In Carolina, he’ll be tasked with helping Bryce Young develop into the star QB he was drafted to be. Based on his track record, it’d be hard to bet against a much-improved passing game in Carolina in 2024. Young will be helped by the arrival of Diontae Johnson, who will add some much-needed weaponry to this offense. In a better offense, Hubbard will have more holes to run through and more touchdown upside.

Hubbard’s efficiency is another important aspect to consider. Among 50 RBs with least 100 carries, he ranked 25th in yards after contact per carry, 26th in elusive rating and 20th in missed tackles forced, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). His statistical profile was considerably better than that of Miles Sanders, Hubbard’s main competition for touches. Sanders ranked 39th, 38th and 43rd in these categories. There is no doubt Hubbard is the team’s most effective runner out of the backfield. What’s more, he profiles as the Panthers’ primary receiving back. He tallied more targets (44), receptions (39) and receiving yards (233) than his running mate last season.

There are certainly flaws to Hubbard’s fantasy profile. This offense is still a work in progress and Miles Sanders will vulture touches. That said, these risks are more than accounted for based on his current cost as the RB35 in half-PPR. He’s worth the investment.

Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF)

The departure of superstar WR Stefon Diggs leaves a massive void to fill in Buffalo’s WR room. With Diggs leaving for Houston, the Bills have 175 vacated targets from last season. New arrivals Mack Hollins and Curtis Samuel will certainly eat into that number. The Bills will likely draft a high-profile WR in the early rounds of the upcoming NFL Draft. However, these players do not have an established rapport with QB Josh Allen. The same cannot be said about Khalil Shakir. Shakir came into his own in the latter half of 2023. From week 16 onwards, the freshman WR averaged 4.6 receptions and 52.8 receiving yards across five games. He made several crucial plays for the Bills down the stretch, including this incredible catch-and-run touchdown in the playoffs:

Shakir’s 76.9 PFF receiving grade was higher than Garrett Wilson, Terry McLaurin and George Pickens. Also according to PFF, his yards after catch per reception of 7.0 was higher than that of Jaylen Waddle, DJ Moore and Ja’Marr Chase. The numbers show Shakir is a very talented player who is more than capable of stepping into a bigger role in this high-powered offense.

Shakir’s role is also very secure. Curtis Samuel will reunite with former offensive coordinator Joe Brady. During their time together in Carolina, Brady liked using Samuel as a Swiss Army Knife in his offensive system. He was often given manufactured touches near the line of scrimmage and was heavily featured in the running game. His 2020 average depth of target (aDOT) of 7.5 yards, per PFF, is indicative of this. Mack Hollins finds himself on the other end of the WR play-style spectrum. Hollins is a deep threat who excels in contested catch situations. According to PFF, his career aDOT is 13.3 yards. Neither of these players will interfere with Shakir’s role as this team’s primary slot receiver. PFF’s data states Shakir ran an impressive 76.8% of his routes from the slot. This number will only increase in this new-look Buffalo offense.

Shakir is primed to see consistent volume in one of the league’s most electric offenses. His impressive 2023 metrics suggest he will make the most of his increased volume in 2024. As the WR52 in half-PPR average draft position (ADP), Shakir is being undervalued.

Zamir White (RB – LV)

It was mentioned earlier that when identifying sleepers, we look for two aspects in a player’s profile: Talent and potential for increased workload. Zamir White is the best encapsulation of this. The Las Vegas Raiders recently parted ways with former Pro Bowl RB Josh Jacobs. Jacobs averaged 20.0 carries per game once Antonio Pierce took over as head coach in Week 9. Based on the Raiders’ current depth chart, White is in line to inherit a heavy portion of these carries on a game-to-game basis.

The Raiders have not made any meaningful additions to their RB room either. The only offseason addition of note was Alexander Mattison, who, based on his porous 2023 season, is hardly a threat to White’s volume. Mattison averaged an unimpressive 2.76 yards after contact per attempt in 2023, according to PFF. It’s also unlikely the Raiders address the position in the upcoming draft. This is a team amid a full-blown rebuild and it would be unwise to invest high draft capital in a RB at this stage.

The most promising aspect of Zamir White’s outlook is that we have a four-week sample of workhorse usage in 2023. With Jacobs injured, White stepped into a larger role from Weeks 15 to 18. During that span, he averaged 21 carries and 99.25 rushing yards per game. Needless to say, White made the most of this increased opportunity. Per PFF, he averaged 3.21 yards after contact per attempt across the entire 2023 season.

Simply put, Zamir White is a highly efficient RB who has shown the ability to be a team’s workhorse. He heads into next season as the undisputed starter for this Raiders team whose identity is strongly predicated on the run game. Draft Zamir White ahead of his current ADP as the RB32 in half-PPR formats.

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