As managers patiently await the start of the upcoming NFL season, countless narratives are thrown around across the fantasy football community. The excitement for September often leads us to be over-confident in certain players’ outlooks. During these times, it’s extra important to remind ourselves of the potential drawbacks of a given player’s fantasy prospects. Below are some players you should consider avoiding in redraft leagues.

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Way Too Early Redraft Players to Avoid

Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)

The much-anticipated arrival of Jim Harbaugh in Los Angeles is likely to improve this franchise that has disappointed mightily over the years. Harbaugh is coming off a championship-winning season at Michigan where his offense was ranked fifth in the nation by Pro Football Focus (PFF). This unit leaned heavily on the run game spearheaded by Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. Harbaugh’s Wolverines opted for a run-centric game plan even though they boasted one of the better QBs in all of college football in J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy figures to be a lottery selection in the upcoming NFL Draft later this month. The latter was only given an average of 22.13 passing attempts per game in 2023.

The hiring of Greg Roman as offensive coordinator further proves this team’s desire to run the ball at a high rate. Roman’s tenure in Baltimore was characterized by a very old-school and run-heavy style of offense. During his four years as the Ravens’ offensive coordinator, the team ranked first, first, third and sixth in rushing attempts per game. It’s safe to say he and Harbaugh are on the same page regarding how the offense will be run.

This shows the Chargers will run the ball at an alarmingly high rate in 2024. Justin Herbert will not have the passing volume required to live up to his current average draft position (ADP) as the QB7 in drafts. There is no doubt Herbert is an extremely talented player. That said, his weapons aren’t good enough for his efficiency to remain high with this decreased volume. As it currently stands, his primary WRs are Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer. Their respective 2023 PFF receiving grades of 58.7 and 67.6 leave much to be desired. Even if the Chargers draft an elite WR with the fifth overall pick, the losses of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will be too much to overcome. Avoid Justin Herbert at all costs.

Davante Adams (WR – LV)

The Raiders named Antonio Pierce as their interim head coach in Week 9 of the 2023 NFL season. From the moment he took over, the team seemed to rally behind him and bought into his hard-nosed brand of football. On offense, the team focused on running the ball with their workhorse RB Josh Jacobs. For some context, Jacobs averaged 20 carries a game with Pierce at the helm after averaging 16.63 attempts in the weeks prior. With an entire off-season to properly establish Pierce’s offensive philosophy, there’s reason to believe the Raiders will be even more run-heavy in 2024. Of course, superstar WR Davante Adams will receive fewer targets as a result.

The quality of these targets is under question as well. The current QB room in Las Vegas consists of the underwhelming duo of Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew. In 2023, these players ranked 23rd and 24th, respectively, in PFF passing grade among 30 QBs with at least 300 dropbacks. One might argue Gardner Minshew was able to support an elite fantasy WR in Michael Pittman Jr. in 2023. While this is true, it’s important to note Adams and Pittman play drastically different roles. Pittman excels in the short-to-intermediate regions of the field where Minshew is comfortable finding his receivers. On the other hand, Adams is a downfield separator with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 11.1 yards in 2023, per PFF. Regardless of who starts, Adams will receive targets from a sub-par QB in 2024.

Perhaps the most concerning aspect of Adams’ 2024 fantasy outlook is his decline in efficiency. Last season, Adams had his lowest yards per route run and yards after catch per reception since 2017, per PFF. At 31 years old, it’s hard to imagine that these efficiency metrics will increase as the years go by. Davante Adams’ current half-PPR ADP of 17 is not worth the investment.

Tony Pollard (RB – TEN)

Tony Pollard was a huge disappointment for those who invested first-round draft capital in him in 2023. After many years of incredible efficiency as part of a shared backfield in Dallas, Pollard seemed primed to explode for fantasy with the departure of Ezekiel Elliot. That said, he had career lows in yards after contact per attempt and in elusive rating, per PFF. While some of these inefficiencies may be attributed to injury, it’s fair to question whether Pollard can handle a heavy workload.

He now finds himself in an uninspiring Tennessee Titans offense. This unit was among the league’s worst in 2023 and ranked 27th in the NFL with 17.9 points per game. While Will Levis certainly showed flashes during his rookie year, the freshman’s status as a franchise NFL QB is up in the air. The Titans’ offensive line is also undoubtedly a massive weakness. It consistently put Will Levis under duress (3.11 sacks per game in 2023) and struggled to create holes for Derrick Henry. Pollard will struggle to be as efficient and productive as he was during his earlier years in Dallas.

Given the money the Titans invested in Pollard, he will enter the season as the team’s starting RB. That being said, there is a very realistic chance Tyjae Spears will usurp him throughout the season. Spears showed great promise during his rookie season. He averaged an impressive 3.15 yards after contact per attempt and forced 26 missed tackles in the process, according to PFF. Here’s how the two RBs compared last season:

#Titans RB 2023 Comparison!

– Tony Pollard: 252 carries, 1,005 yds, 6 TD, 4.0 YPC, -39 Rush yds over expectation, 8% runs for 10+ yds, 14% 15+ MPH

– Tyjae Spears: 100 carries, 453 yds, 2 TD, 4.5 YPC, -14 rush yds over expectation, 13% runs 10+ yds, 19% 15+ MPH

— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) April 1, 2024

Pollard finds himself in an offense ridden with question marks surrounding the QB and offensive line play. It’s likely Spears will continue to eat into his workload as the season carries on. For this reason, his current half-PPR RB20 ADP is too risky.

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