Welcome to my third mock draft for the 2024 NFL Draft cycle. I’ve already begun researching by using the betting trends from the 2023 NFL Draft and kicked off my prop betting card for the 2024 NFL Draft season.
This mock draft will feature trades. In all my mock drafts this cycle, the predicted trades will not contain all the details. I.E. only the core pieces of each trade will be shown. People get too caught up in trade details and can’t see the forest through the trees. Not to mention they’re nearly impossible to predict, so just enjoy the trades.
Kent Weyrauch has been in the top 10% of experts for the FantasyPros Mock Draft Accuracy Contest over the last three years.
- More 2024 NFL Mock Drafts
- Expert Consensus 2024 NFL Mock Draft
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
- 2024 NFL Draft Prospect Profiles
2024 NFL Mock Draft (Round 1)
1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams (QB – USC)
After the Justin Fields trade, this should be etched in stone. Caleb Williams going first overall is down to -5000 on many books now. There isn’t another option worth considering.
2. Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels (QB – LSU)
To this point, the Commanders have completed a combine, Pro Day and top-30 visit with Jayden Daniels. This is the only quarterback they have completed the entire trio of visits with. While multiple draft visits can mean vetting or ruling out prospects in some cases. At the top of the draft, it typically means locking in the selection.
3. New England Patriots: Drake Maye (QB – UNC)
This is vanilla for now, but unless a trade occurs in the top three picks, I will likely stick with this trio to kick things off. The Patriots made a mistake in Mac Jones and would prefer someone with Maye’s tools that can be refined for NFL purposes. Maye shows higher confidence in mid and deep throws, while still showing touch passes when necessary.
4. New York Giants: J.J. McCarthy (QB – MICH)
*Trade 1 (core): The New York Giants trade their 2024 first-round pick (sixth overall) and future considerations to the Arizona Cardinals for their 2024 first-round pick (fourth overall)
Now a divergence from my last draft. This time the Giants make a smaller move by parting with capital likely to include 2025 picks to secure the quarterback of the future. J.J. McCarthy’s experience in a pro-style system will bring stability to the Giants’ offense where Daniel Jones never could. I believe the Giants could keep pick No. 47 in this move, which they could use to draft a wide receiver.
I think that the Cardinals would actually favor a trade with the Giants over any team after pick 10.
-Giants have done considerable work on QBs
-Cardinals stay in elite WR range
-Ossenfort has tons of 2024 draft capital already, could get 2025 pick(s) pic.twitter.com/NBSQDxG7Bx— Kent Weyrauch (@KentWeyrauch) April 5, 2024
5. Los Angeles Chargers: Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – OSU)
Even beyond name recognition, Marvin Harrison Jr. stands on his merits shown on the gridiron. His resume of over 2,400 receiving yards and 29 total touchdowns in his last two seasons speaks for itself. The Chargers desperately need wide receiver help and grab the top wideout off the board.
6. Arizona Cardinals: Malik Nabers (WR – LSU)
*Trade: The Arizona Cardinals trade their 2024 first-round pick (fourth overall) to the New York Giants for their 2024 first-round pick (sixth overall) and future considerations.
Malik Nabers’ 93.1 receiving grade topped all Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) receivers with 50+ targets. His route running is extremely crisp and his explosion out of breaks creates targetable separation. I think there is merit to the idea that some teams view him as the WR1 in this class.
"There's no chance Malik Nabers is WR1 over Marvin Harrison Jr." pic.twitter.com/gdCCtl68Wb
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 8, 2024
7. Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt (OT – ND)
I considered switching off this selection based on comments from Titans GM Ran Carthon at the combine. After releasing Andre Dillard, I don’t see how they can pass on the best left tackle in this year’s draft class.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner (EDGE – ALA)
I want it to be known I still think Rome Odunze is in play here, but betting markets believe that either EDGE or CB is more likely. The Falcons have completed a top-30 visit with Dallas Turner, who is regarded by most to be the most complete EDGE prospect in this class.
9. Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze (WR – UW)
In many other recent draft classes, Odunze could stake a claim as the WR1, but having Harrison and Nabers ahead of him is no discredit to him. The Bears might have traded for Keenan Allen this offseason but with Caleb Williams under center for the foreseeable future, they will bring in more receiving talent to support him.
10. New York Jets: Brock Bowers (TE – UGA)
The Jets would like a wide receiver here but are out of the running without moving up. Brock Bowers operates as a TE/slot WR hybrid with top-tier run-after-catch ability.
Career YAC Per Reception after removing screens, 2024 pass catchers pic.twitter.com/Mgn4JUNHBp
— Football Insights ? (@fball_insights) April 1, 2024
11. Minnesota Vikings: Laiatu Latu (EDGE – UCLA)
This has not been a popular pairing this cycle, but to be fair, most have had the Vikings moving up for a quarterback. In this “break glass in case of emergency” scenario, the Vikings focus on the defensive side of the ball with their first pick. Laiatu Latu’s only red flag is medicals. He checked out well at the combine and was not called back for a re-check. On tape, he’s one of the best pass-rushers in recent memory.
Notable EDGE prospects overall pass rush win rates vs just in true pass sets. Laiatu Latu splits the Bosa’s ? pic.twitter.com/nlwvbBBoM0
— Football Insights ? (@fball_insights) April 2, 2024
12. Denver Broncos: Quinyon Mitchell (CB – TOL)
Quinyon Mitchell was easily one of the biggest winners at the NFL Combine this year thanks to his blazing 4.33 forty time. At Toledo, Mitchell provided versatile utility in coverage where he allowed more than 50 receiving yards just twice last season, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Not many non-P5 prospects are drafted in the first round but Mitchell has a great case to go in the top 15 this year.
13. Las Vegas Raiders: Taliese Fuaga (OT – OSU)
While Thayer Munford Jr. has been decent for the Raiders after being selected in the seventh round of the 2022 NFL Draft, I believe the Raiders could be looking for a more reliable upgrade. Taliese Fuaga was awarded first-team all-American honors during his junior season with the Oregon State Beavers, where he allowed just 12 pressures and zero sacks all season, per PFF.
14. New Orleans Saints: Olumuyiwa Fashanu (OT – PSU)
With Ryan Ramczyk’s medical status up in the air, the cap-strapped Saints will probably want to solidify their offensive line. Trevor Penning has failed to be reliable in both play and availability. Olumuyiwa Fashanu allowed zero sacks at Penn State and had an amazing 3.5% pressure rate in true pass sets, per PFF.
OT prospects in “true pass sets” during college. These are pass block reps after removing <2 sec time to throws, <4 rushers, screens/play action, etc. pic.twitter.com/brESKZoW9i
— Football Insights ? (@fball_insights) March 29, 2024
15. Indianapolis Colts: Terrion Arnold (CB – ALA)
The Indianapolis Colts will bolster their secondary with the first corner off the board in Alabama’s Terrion Arnold. He’s one of the best press-man corners in this class and is ready to start immediately in the Colts’ rotation.
16. Seattle Seahawks: Troy Fautanu (OT – UW)
Though a left tackle by trade, Troy Fautanu has a versatile set of traits that could allow him to play either side at guard or tackle. The Seahawks are in a larger need of guard but could transition Fautanu outside if needed.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – LSU)
Two LSU receivers in the first round. Nabers is an obvious lock to go in the first round but Brian Thomas Jr.’s 17 receiving touchdowns last season opened peoples’ eyes to his receiving prowess. He’s lightning-fast for his size and arguably has the widest catch radius of this entire class.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: JC Latham (OT – ALA)
This is a similar situation to the Jets, where the Bengals brought in Trent Brown at right tackle on a one-year deal. However, Brown has struggled to stay healthy his entire career and is unlikely to be the long-term option. JC Latham was a stalwart starting right tackle for the Alabama Crimson Tide over the last two seasons, where he allowed just 26 pressures and two sacks on 960 pass-blocking snaps, per PFF.
19. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Verse (EDGE – FSU)
After Aaron Donald’s retirement, it might be trendy to take a defensive tackle here. However, they see Jared Verse as a value here. Last year, Verse was mocked in the first round before returning to school where he put together a career-high 11 sacks, per PFF.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Jackson Powers-Johnson (C – ORE)
Jackson Powers-Johnson moved around the line in his first two seasons with the Oregon Ducks but ultimately found his stride at center. In his final year, he allowed just one pressure on 497 pass-blocking snaps. The Steelers desperately need some inside help, especially at center, and Powers-Johnson can provide that anywhere on the interior.
21. Miami Dolphins: Byron Murphy II (DT – TEX)
I don’t think the Dolphins plan to start Benito Jones on the defensive interior this season. Byron Muphy is a stout run defender who also garnered six sacks last season. He’s also flexible enough to eat blocks at 1- & 3-techniques while using explosiveness to stress the passer.
Pass rush win rates in true pass sets, via PFF (college totals)
B. Murphy: 27%*
J. Carter: 21.6%
M. Hall: 20.7%*
K. Benton: 19%
C. Kancey: 18.1%
L. Taylor: 17.6%*
K. Turner: 16.4%
J. Newton: 16.1%*
B. Fiske: 15%*
T. Sweat: 14.2%*
B. Bresee: 14%
K. Jenkins: 13.6%*
M. Smith: 13.5%— Football Insights ? (@fball_insights) April 5, 2024
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Cooper DeJean (CB – IOWA)
The Eagles know Darius Slay and James Bradberry are north of 30, and it remains to be seen if Kelee Ringo can be a full-time player. To add insurance to their defensive back corps, they take Iowa product Cooper DeJean. DeJean boasts fantastic instincts and ball-tracking skills, which he uses to play as one of the most natural ballhawks of this class.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Bo Nix (QB – ORE)
Step two of the “break glass in case of emergency” scenario. There has also been some buzz about Michael Penix Jr. sneaking into the first round, so he could be a similar option here. However, Bo Nix’s footwork and ability to create plays out of structure land him in purple and gold at 23rd overall.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Amarius Mims (OT – UGA)
The Cowboys are undecided if Tyler Smith should move to left tackle. This move would make that decision for them. Amarius Mims is a physical specimen. At 6-foot-7.5 and 340 pounds, he powered through a 4.33-second shuttle drill at the NFL Combine. The downside is he lacks the experience other first-round offensive tackles bring to the table but he has excelled when he plays.
25. Green Bay Packers: Graham Barton (OG – DUKE)
Graham Barton is likely going to be a tackle-to-guard convert in the NFL. His arm length and wingspan came in as bottom-third measurements relative to the other offensive linemen at the NFL Combine. The Packers like athletic players and Barton’s 9.99 relative athletic score (RAS) is right up their alley.
Graham Barton is a OG prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored a 9.99 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 3 out of 1532 OG from 1987 to 2024. https://t.co/zv1tlYy0ls pic.twitter.com/mLWEfjeSV6
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) April 2, 2024
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Nate Wiggins (CB – CLEM)
Cornerback is one of the Buccaneers’ top needs and Nate Wiggins will gladly oblige his talents. Wiggins’ versatility and coverage skills mesh well with Todd Bowles’ mixed coverage shells and defensive looks.
27. Arizona Cardinals: Chop Robinson (EDGE – PSU)
With a top-flight wide receiver taken at five in this mock, the Cardinals turn to the defensive side of the ball. Chop Robinson’s 4.47 forty-yard dash had scouts talking at the NFL Combine and his in-game motor is second-to-none.
28. Buffalo Bills: Adonai Mitchell (WR – Texas)
After trading Stefon Diggs, this need becomes much more pressing for the Bills. In free agency, they signed Curtis Samuel to a mid-range deal and still have Khalil Shakir. Neither of them has the traits to be a top wideout, in my opinion. Adonai Mitchell’s combo of size and speed is unmatched in this receiver class and his upside makes for a solid pairing with Josh Allen in the coming years.
29. Detroit Lions: Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB – ALA)
He should go first overall for his name alone. Ga’Quincy “Kool-Aid” McKinstry was so elite at Alabama that opposing offenses targeted him half as often during his junior season on roughly the same amount of coverage snaps. They didn’t even want to try.
30. Baltimore Ravens: Kingsley Suamataia (OT – BYU)
A late riser in the draft process, Kingsley Suamataia has been popping up on several teams’ top-30 visit lists this spring. And while the Ravens haven’t visited with Suamataia yet, they need a right tackle, a position where Suamataia played his best football as a Sophomore.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Johnny Newton (DT – ILL)
On NFL Mock Draft Database, Jer’Zhan “Johnny” Newton’s peak big board rank was ninth in January. It seems like some prospect fatigue might be setting in but his stock dip certainly wasn’t prevented by the fact he didn’t complete any drills or testing at the combine due to recovering from a foot fracture. Down at 31st overall, the 49ers would gun it to the podium to turn in this card.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Tyler Guyton (OT – OU)
The Chiefs have a big question mark at left tackle. While Guyton might not be a surefire prospect he does have prototypical offensive tackle size and experience at both the left and right tackle positions during his time at Oklahoma.
2024 NFL Mock Drafts
Here are a few early predictions for the 2024 NFL Draft. We’ll continue to add our 2024 NFL Mock Drafts leading up to the start of Round 1.
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Thor Nystrom (1.0 | 2.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Matthew Jones (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Andrew Erickson (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Kent Weyrauch (1.0 | 2.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Derek Brown (1.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Russell Brown (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: PJ Moran (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft With Trades: Mike Fanelli (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft With Trades: Marco Enriquez (1.0 | 2.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft With Trades: Dennis Sosic
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Two-Round Writer Collaborative
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: First Round Picks & Predictions
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Top 20 Picks & Predictions
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Top 10 Picks & Predictions
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Early Picks & Predictions
- Early 2024 NFL Mock Draft with Trades: Picks & Predictions
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