This is it! The final edition of my mock draft series for the 2024 NFL Draft cycle. Thank you for reading my content this year, I hope you enjoyed it.
My final mock draft is a predictive mock with no trades. So let’s jump right in!
Kent Weyrauch has been in the top 10% of experts for the FantasyPros Mock Draft Accuracy Contest over the last three years.
- Thor’s Top 500 Rookie Rankings & Comps
- More 2024 NFL Mock Drafts
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
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2024 NFL Mock Draft (Round 1)
1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams (QB – USC)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 1 | 21.4 | 1 | 2 | 6.74 | 95.86 |
Slam dunk.
2. Washington Commanders: Drake Maye (QB – UNC)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 2 | 21.6 | 4 | 17 | 6.5 | 87.78 |
The model hath decided. Drake Maye goes to the Washington Commanders to lead them into the next era. Maye’s tool represents a beacon of hope.
3. New England Patriots: Jayden Daniels (QB – LSU)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 3 | 23.4 | 3 | 22 | 6.73 | 92.43 |
Between being a 5-year player, having suspect sack peripheral metrics, a dangerous play-style, and the model, I’ve finally decided that Jayden Daniels may in fact being going third overall. The Commanders AND Jaydens’ camp’s antics have been strange, so he’ll land on the Patriots.
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – OSU)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 4 | 21.7 | 3 | 4 | 6.83 | 87.82 |
Despite Ossenfort’s trading frenzy last year, I think he has every right to stay in this spot and draft a generati— very, very good wide receiver with pedigree.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: Malik Nabers (WR – LSU)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 5 | 20.7 | 7 | 15 | 6.86 | 92.2 |
Malik Nabers’ 93.1 receiving grade topped all Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) receivers with 50+ targets. His route running is extremely crisp and his explosion out of breaks creates targetable separation. I think there is merit to the idea that some teams view him as the WR1 in this class. The Chargers could use warm bodies in general, and Nabers far exceeds that threshold.
6. New York Giants: Rome Odunze (WR – UW)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 6 | 21.9 | 4 | 12 | 6.74 | 90.67 |
In many other recent draft classes, Odunze could stake a claim as the WR1, but having Harrison and Nabers ahead of him is no discredit to him. In regards to being last on a position run, I think the Giants would rather take a bonafide talent like Odunze over McCarthy.
7. Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt (OT – ND)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 11 | 21.1 | 3 | 9 | 6.49 | 87.46 |
It’s hard to put any other player here, and I just haven’t seen enough steam on other offensive tackles in this class to justify flipping the positional order. The model soured on Alt a bit relative to this position, but not enough to push me off the pick.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner (EDGE – ALA)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 10 | 21.2 | 6 | 7 | 6.72 | 84.08 |
I want it to be known I still think Rome Odunze is in play here, but betting markets believe that either EDGE or CB is more likely. The Falcons have completed a top-30 visit with Dallas Turner, who is regarded by most to be the most complete EDGE prospect in this class and a great fit in a Raheem Morris defense. Additionally, they have also not met with the other rumored match — Laiatu Latu.
New Falcons coach Raheem Morris' Rams defense had 355 snaps where at least one edge defender dropped into coverage last year, most in the league.
Most coverage snaps among top EDGEs:
Dallas Turner 238
Laiatu Latu 55
Jared Verse 27
Chop Robinson 15— Steve Palazzolo (@PFF_Steve) April 12, 2024
9. Chicago Bears: Brock Bowers (TE – UGA)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 7 | 21.4 | 3 | 9 | 6.71 | 95.82 |
I’m going to be honest, this is a bit gutsy and not a common selection. The Bears will run a lot of 12/13 personnel this year and still need a longer-term outlook for receiving options. Brock Bowers operates as a TE/slot WR hybrid with top-tier run-after-catch ability.
Career YAC Per Reception after removing screens, 2024 pass catchers pic.twitter.com/Mgn4JUNHBp
— Football Insights ? (@fball_insights) April 1, 2024
10. New York Jets: Taliese Fuaga (OT – OSU)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 15 | 22.1 | 3 | 6 | 6.48 | 83.38 |
The Jets signed tackles, but they’re old and fragile. In the interim, Fuaga could play guard in a pinch. In his junior season with the Oregon State Beavers, Taliese Fuaga was awarded first-team all-American honors, where he allowed just 12 pressures and zero sacks all season, per PFF.
11. Minnesota Vikings: J.J. McCarthy (QB – MICH)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 8 | 21.2 | 3 | 20 | 6.4 | 82.5 |
While it’s possible — and probably likely — that the Vikings trade up for a quarterback like Drake Maye, in this mock they sit on their heels after Maye goes 2nd overall. Their reward is JJ McCarthy, who has done nothing but win his entire football career.
J.J. McCarthy's Resume
8th grade: offered a full scholarship from Iowa State (Power 5 school)
9th grade: varsity redshirt
10th grade: 13-1, won the state championship with a broken thumb on his throwing hand
11th grade: 13-1, lost the state championship
12th grade: 8-0, won…— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) April 23, 2024
12. Denver Broncos: Laiatu Latu (EDGE – UCLA)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 14 | 23.3 | 6 | 9 | 6.5 | 84.29 |
Laiatu Latu is just a fun prospect. If I had a magic wand, I’d wave away his neck injury and watch the butterfly effect of him getting drafted in the top-5 of the 2022 NFL Draft.
13. Las Vegas Raiders: Terrion Arnold (CB – ALA)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 9 | 21.1 | 6 | 9 | 6.45 | 85.2 |
The Raiders still need help on the offense line, but their secondary situation isn’t much better — if at all. Terrion Arnold’s prowess in a zone-heavy scheme makes for a great pairing.
14. New Orleans Saints: Olumuyiwa Fashanu (OT – PSU)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 18 | 21.4 | 0 | 4 | 6.45 | 84.43 |
With Ryan Ramczyk’s medical status up in the air, the cap-strapped Saints will probably want to solidify their offensive line. Trevor Penning has failed to be reliable in both play and availability. Olumuyiwa Fashanu allowed zero sacks at Penn State and had an amazing 3.5% pressure rate in true pass sets, per PFF.
15. Indianapolis Colts: Quinyon Mitchell (CB – TOL)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 12 | 22.8 | 2 | 4 | 6.47 | 90.42 |
Quinyon Mitchell was easily among the biggest winners at the NFL Combine this year thanks to his blazing 4.33 forty time. At Toledo, Mitchell provided versatile utility in coverage where he allowed more than 50 receiving yards just twice last season, per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Not many non-P5 prospects are drafted in the first round but Mitchell has a great case to go in the top 15 this year.
16. Seattle Seahawks: Byron Murphy II (DT – TEX)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 13 | 21.6 | 4 | 7 | 6.48 | 83.28 |
The Seahawks desperately need some beef in the middle of their defense. Byron Murphy brings beef with attitude. The disruptive force and game-changing playmaking ability have caused his draft stock to skyrocket.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Cooper DeJean (CB – IOWA)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 17 | 21.2 | 4 | 6 | 6.36 | 85.02 |
Cooper DeJean boasts fantastic instincts and ball-tracking skills, which he uses to play as one of the most natural ballhawks of this class. After being medically cleared and posting some nice workouts, teams should be ready to buy in.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: JC Latham (OT – ALA)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 20 | 21.2 | 4 | 8 | 6.71 | 86.67 |
This is a similar situation to the Jets, where the Bengals brought in Trent Brown at right tackle on a one-year deal. However, Brown has struggled to stay healthy his entire career and is unlikely to be the long-term option. JC Latham was a stalwart starting right tackle for the Alabama Crimson Tide over the last two seasons, where he allowed just 26 pressures and two sacks on 960 pass-blocking snaps, per PFF.
Oh, and Duke Tobin loves his big school guys:
Using @SamHoppen's awesome GM dataset to look at GMs/Drafters and college connections in their draft picks. Here are the connections with 5 or more picks since the 2008 draft. Love Howie Roseman's strategy of just taking players from the best team in CFB #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/lPnRbvFDQk
— CFBNumbers (@CFBNumbers) April 23, 2024
19. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Verse (EDGE – FSU)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 16 | 23.5 | 5 | 7 | 6.73 | 83.6 |
After Aaron Donald’s retirement, it might be trendy to take a defensive tackle here. However, they see Jared Verse as a value here. Last year, Verse was mocked in the first round before returning to school where he put together a career-high 11 sacks, per PFF.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – LSU)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 24 | 21.6 | 0 | 10 | 6.47 | 85.98 |
Two LSU receivers in the first round. Nabers is an obvious lock to go in the first round but Brian Thomas Jr.’s 17 receiving touchdowns last season opened peoples’ eyes to his receiving prowess. He’s lightning-fast for his size and arguably has the widest catch radius of this entire class.
21. Miami Dolphins: Graham Barton (OG – DUKE)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 22 | 21.9 | 3 | 8 | 6.46 | 89.78 |
Graham Barton is likely going to be a tackle-to-guard convert in the NFL. His arm length and wingspan came in as bottom-third measurements relative to the other offensive linemen at the NFL Combine. The Dolphins need help nearly across the board on the offense line, and Barton’s versatility will help there.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Kool-Aid McKinstry (CB – ALA)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 21 | 21.6 | 8 | 10 | 6.39 | 83.02 |
He should go first overall for his name alone. Ga’Quincy “Kool-Aid” McKinstry was so elite at Alabama that opposing offenses targeted him half as often during his junior season on roughly the same amount of coverage snaps. They didn’t even want to try.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Johnny Newton (DT – ILL)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 19 | 21.6 | 3 | 4 | 6.36 | 82.88 |
Even though Brian Flores created a decent defense from a bottom-10 defensive personnel group, he’d still enjoy getting a guy like Johnny Newton in the trenches. He plays all the way across the line, which will work well in the Vikings multiple fronts.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Amarius Mims (OT – UGA)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 25 | 21.5 | 5 | 8 | 6.42 | 82.15 |
Amarius Mims is a physical specimen. At 6-foot-7.5 and 340 pounds, he powered through a 4.33-second shuttle drill at the NFL Combine. The downside is he lacks the experience other first-round offensive tackles bring to the table but he has excelled when he plays.
25. Green Bay Packers: Troy Fautanu (OT – UW)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 28 | 23.5 | 9 | 17 | 6.47 | 85.94 |
Though a left tackle by trade, Troy Fautanu has a versatile set of traits that could allow him to play either side at guard or tackle. The Packers are going through a transition in the post-Bakhtiari world, and Fautanu’s wingspan will allow him to play left tackle if needed.
Jordan Morgan, Graham Barton, and Troy Fautanu if he falls just to name a few could all be guards or tackles for the #Packers.
Green Bay has not shied away from guys with shorter arms than ideal for an OT. https://t.co/yrfly72sKz
— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) March 22, 2024
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson (EDGE – PSU)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 30 | 21.3 | 8 | 14 | 6.5 | 82.81 |
With a top-flight wide receiver taken at five in this mock, the Cardinals turn to the defensive side of the ball. Chop Robinson’s 4.47 forty-yard dash had scouts talking at the NFL Combine and his in-game motor is second-to-none.
27. Arizona Cardinals: Nate Wiggins (CB – CLEM)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 23 | 20.7 | 3 | 7 | 6.43 | 83.34 |
Cornerback is one of the Cardinals’ top needs and Nate Wiggins will gladly oblige his talents. Wiggins’ versatility and coverage skills mesh well with the Cardinals mixed coverage shells and defensive looks.
28. Buffalo Bills: Adonai Mitchell (WR – Texas)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 26 | 21.6 | 2 | 4 | 6.35 | 80.94 |
After trading Stefon Diggs, this need becomes much more pressing for the Bills. In free agency, they signed Curtis Samuel to a mid-range deal and still have Khalil Shakir. Neither of them has the traits to be a top wideout, in my opinion. Adonai Mitchell’s combo of size and speed is unmatched in this receiver class and his upside makes for a solid pairing with Josh Allen in the coming years.
29. Detroit Lions: Xavier Worthy (WR – TEX)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 31 | 21 | 6 | 15 | 6.29 | 88.02 |
Every NFL Draft first round must have a “fast boi” receiver. Xavier Worthy may be fast but his production is just as impressive. Through three seasons at Texas, he collected 26 receiving touchdowns and averaged 14.0 yards per reception.
going to be really interesting to see what happens to some of the lighter receivers in this draft class like xavier worthy and troy franklin. there are some recent examples of receivers under 180 pounds having success:
•tank dell – 165
•devonta smith – 165
•marquise brown -… pic.twitter.com/h6XqSUCiVQ— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) April 20, 2024
30. Baltimore Ravens: Tyler Guyton (OT – OU)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 29 | 21.9 | 6 | 8 | 6.41 | 82.58 |
Tyler Guyton steps in as the Ravens’ right tackle on day one. Standing at 6’7.5″ and 322 pounds, Guyton is a mountain of a man that packs more athleticism than you realize.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Jackson Powers-Johnson (C – ORE)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 27 | 21.3 | 5 | 8 | 6.36 | 84.69 |
Jackson Powers-Johnson moved around the line in his first two seasons with the Oregon Ducks but ultimately found his stride at center. He allowed just one pressure on 497 pass-blocking snaps in his final year. The 49ers desperately need some inside help, and Powers-Johnson can provide that anywhere on the interior.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Ladd McConkey (WR – OU)
| Model Rank | Age | Top-30 Visits | Total Visits | NFL.com Grade | NextGen Grade |
| 33 | 22.5 | 3 | 4 | 6.4 | 80.04 |
More 2024 NFL Mock Drafts
Here are a few predictions for the 2024 NFL Draft. We’ll continue to add our 2024 NFL Mock Drafts leading up to the start of Round 1.
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Thor Nystrom (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Matthew Jones (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Andrew Erickson (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Kent Weyrauch (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Derek Brown
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Bogman’s Seven-Round Mock
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft With Trades: Mike Fanelli (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Russell Brown (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: PJ Moran (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft With Trades: Marco Enriquez (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft With Trades: Dennis Sosic
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Two-Round Writer Collaborative
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: First Round Picks & Predictions
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Top 20 Picks & Predictions
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Top 10 Picks & Predictions
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Early Picks & Predictions
- Early 2024 NFL Mock Draft with Trades: Picks & Predictions
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