Welcome to my comprehensive analysis of the 2024 NFL Draft Winners and Losers.
In this featured piece recapping everything from this year’s NFL Draft, I will delve into the immediate impact of the newly minted rookies and how their arrival alters the dynamics for veteran players within their teams.
From soaring stocks of rookies poised to make a significant mark in their debut seasons to veterans who might find their positions threatened or bolstered by these young additions, we’ll explore who emerged as the winners and losers of this pivotal day in the NFL calendar.
Join me as we break down the changing landscapes of NFL squads and assess the potential shifts in strategy and performance prompted by this year’s Round 2 and 3 draft selections.
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- Dynasty Startup Draft Primers
- Dynasty Draft Kit
- Thor’s Top 500 Rookie Rankings & Comps
2024 NFL DRAFT WINNERS
QUARTERBACKS
It’s hard to argue against Caleb Williams‘ great landing spot with the veteran weapons he has at his disposal, including D.J. Moore, D’Andre Swift, Keenan Allen, and Cole Kmet. And the Bears were not finished improving Williams’ first-year prospects with the selection of Washington WR Rome Odunze as the ninth overall selection.
The USC product’s off-script playmaking ability is apparent, and that makes him deadly when paired with his elite production from a clean pocket. This past season, Williams posted PFF’s highest grade operating from a clean pocket.
No Bears QB has ever thrown for 4,000 yards or 30 TDs. I hardly think it’s a stretch to see Williams hit the 4K passing yards mark in Year 1. His passing yardage prop opened at 3,400.5 passing yads on FanDuel Sportsbook.
As for fantasy football specifically, I’d be excited about Williams and his upside with rushing TDs.
He is a deadly threat near the goal line. 27 rushing TDs in 2.5 seasons as a starter at the college level.
Jayden Daniels played 5 seasons of college ball. 55 games in total. Brock Purdy played 48 games at Iowa State. I was not surprised that Daniels was the selection for the Commanders at No. 2 overall after a 2023 Heisman Trophy campaign. The regime values experience and Daniels offered that more than Drake Maye.
With Daniel’s ability to add value as a rusher and years of experience under his belt, he can thrive in a familiar Kliff Kingsbury system with underrated weapons already entrenched at the skill positions. In 55 games in college, Daniels rushed for over 3,300 yards – 60 rushing yards per game. Last year’s third quarterback selected, Anthony Richardson, also averaged 60 rushing yards per game in the college ranks.
Among the six rookie QBs, Daniels has the best chance of finishing as a fantasy QB1 in 2024. He went up three spots in my 1QB rookie rankings.
And with Daniels’ great deep ball, we could finally see Terry McLaurin break out of the fantasy WR2 quagmire. And he likely won’t cost the price of a fantasy WR2 on draft day.
And better yet, the Commanders added additional pieces on offense such as TE Ben Sinnott and WR Luke McCaffrey on Day 2 of the draft.
However, a mobile QB is not ideal for pass-catching RBs like Austin Ekeler. After a horrible 2023 season, Ekeler is trending in the wrong direction. I’ll take my chances with Brian Robinson instead, accepting he won’t be super involved in the passing game.
The best landing spot aside from Caleb Williams to Chicago was J.J. McCarthy‘s landing spot in Minnesota. An unmatched QB infrastructure is in place with weapons as far as the eyes can see. McCarthy is great for Justin Jefferson to return as a top-2 WR in redraft and in dynasty formats, behind only Ja’Marr Chase in my rankings.
I’d expect McCarthy to match or even exceed Williams/Daniels in terms of team success and post strong passing numbers. He might not be a true fantasy difference-maker without rushing, but can he be a fringe backend fantasy QB1 in full Brock Purdy fashion? Yes sir.
Will Levis received more help across the OL with JC Latham; however, he’s more of an RT than LT.
Still, the Titans are doing their best to surround their big-armed second-year QB with as much as possible, to figure out whether he can be their franchise QB. Latham is a mauler in the run game and should help this OL run the football in the post-Derrick Henry era between Tyjae Spears and Tony Pollard.
The Bengals QB was plagued by injuries a season ago. They needed another big body up front to protect Joe Burrow, which is what they need to have success. Amarius Mims can start at RT if Trent Brown gets hurt.
And Cincinnati didn’t stop improving the offense on Day 2. They drafted another weapon for Burrow with WR Jermaine Burton. And on Day 3, they took shots on two underrated tight ends Erik All and Tanner McLachlan. With Tanner Hudson and Mike Gesicki also in the tight end fold, that room could be a mess for fantasy.
Still, I love the Bengals overall in fantasy football and in NFL Futures. The Mims selection makes me even more bullish that this team is all-in on making a run.
The Chargers added Joe Alt to help protect Justin Herbert. Then they traded up for a pass-catcher in the form of Ladd McConkey. They also drafted Brenden Rice in Round 7.
Likely spells the end of Quentin Johnston in Year 2, while veteran Joshua Palmer emerges a super value as a late-round WR selection if McConkey can’t ditch the injury bug that frustrated him in college.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
I opened up the offseason extremely hesitant to rank Marvin Harrison Jr. too high, to the dismay of my fellow fantasy analysts at FantasyPros. But every time I opened up my 2024 rankings, he just kept moving up and up.
With him entrenched officially as the Arizona Cardinals WR1, he offers a super-high floor with targets and high-end quarterback play in his grasp. It’s hard to see him failing in any capacity, and it’s just a matter of how many TDs he scores that will likely influence his final output. He won’t come cheap for the reasons I listed, which might be the only reason I don’t get as much exposure to him in 2024 redraft leagues.
But similar to how the Cardinals didn’t overthink him as the fourth overall pick, don’t overthink Harrison as the 1.01 in 1QB rookie formats.
MHJ is also a major boost for Kyler Murray‘s fantasy stock. The Cardinals QB could easily return to the top-5 in scoring with his blend of rushing and upgraded personnel.
I’ll start with the Chicago Bears WR and break down Rome Odunze. For me, it’s easy to pinpoint Odunze as a winner in a dynasty but more of a loser in redraft formats. Being attached at the hip to Williams for the long term is an ideal situation. But the target competition Odunze will face between D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and Cole Kmet will be a tough task to overcome.
Many will compare Odunze’s situation to what happened in Seattle last season. Jaxon Smith-Nijgba was drafted as a plucky rookie first-rounder on a depth chart with two established WRs atop the depth chart. Interestingly enough, the OC last year for Seattle was Shane Waldron – is the new OC for the Bears. But part of JSN’s struggles was his “slot-only” designation, which won’t be the case with Odunze.
Still, on the other hand, expecting a rookie QB to fuel Keenan Allen, D.J. Moore, and Odunze to fantasy-friendly seasons in his first year will be a tough bet to make.
It’s important to note that even after JSN’s underwhelming rookie year, he still maintained high dynasty value after the season. That will be a similar case with Odunze, even if he doesn’t blow up in Year 1. Injuries can also happen, and I am confident that with Odunze’s abilities as a clear alpha, he will step up when called upon.
And that could “hurt” the likes of Moore and Allen.
To be clear, Moore will be my Bears WR1 entering next season. Allen, I am more concerned about, given that he NEEDS volume to win. Odunze-as a volume-earner-will make it tougher for Allen to flirt with double-digit targets. Meanwhile, Moore can do the most with his YAC/vertical ability to be uber-efficient with defenses concerned about the other Bears’ WRs.
Malike Nabers can step in from Day 1 as the No. 1 WR in the offense. Malik Naber’s explosive skillset as a YAC monster makes me less concerned about the potential shoddy QB play. Still, the unknown about QB long-term does present Nabers with more “bust” potential, cementing him firmly as WR2 in the class for me behind Harrison Jr.
However, given the overall negativity around the New York Giants’ landing spot, I’ll likely have a ton of exposure to Nabers in redraft formats. OC Brian Daboll can run his offense through Nabers, with a supporting cast filled with just beta players: a retired Darren Waller, 100 slot WRs, and Devin Singletary.
Who do you think is going to get the ball?
We saw Josh Allen take a major step when he got Stefon Diggs. I think we could see a healthy Daniel Jones recapture some of his brighter moments in a make-or-break year with Nabers at his disposal.
This puts Jones back in late-round QB territory, given his rushing upside, which he will have no choice but to leverage.
I’m not going to overthink this one. Sometimes, a rookie just lands in the exact ideal landing spot that we all hope and pray will happen. And that’s how I view Xavier Worthy landing with Patrick Mahomes in the Chiefs. Reminds me of De’Von Achane landing in Miami last season. It just fits like a glove.
I’ve been super high on the Texas WR even before he broke the 40-yard dash record. I compared him to a better version of Marquise Brown – who the Chiefs just signed in free agency – albeit to a one-year deal. Brown has never been the bill of health. And we don’t know how many games Rashee Rice will miss with his ongoing legal situation.
Worthy has moved up to my WR4 in my rookie rankings.
I also want to preach this: Don’t let your love or excitement about Rice get in the way of how you feel about Worthy. Again, off-field issues aside, the Chiefs drafting Worthy (trading up) signals some concern about Rice.
I fell hook, line, and sinker in a similar way to Elijah Moore with the Jets. I loved his rookie year but didn’t consider what it meant when the Jets proceeded to draft Garrett Wilson the next year.
The future is now in KC, and his name is Xavier Worthy. In my rookie rankings, he’s moved up to 4th overall from 7th pre-draft.
Andy Reid talked about DeSean Jackson as a “Worthy” comparison to their first-round draft selection. Chills.
No pressure, just match one of the best deep threats ever. ?
— Patelz (@platp1) April 29, 2024
I’m very torn on whether Xavier Legette is a true “winner” after the Panthers traded back into the first round to draft him. He’s part of a brand-new offense that whiffed on Jonathan Mingo as a similar boom-or-bust prospect last season. But that was the previous regime, and there’s just something about this new coaching staff that has me encouraged about Legette’s potential in 2024 and beyond.
Don’t let the Mingo pick persuade you to think Carolina is a bad team for a rookie WR. It’s still a solid spot for a young player to see targets in an offense that should be much better than its 2023 form.
I don’t think it really matters for Diontae Johnson, as he will be the target leader on the Panthers offense. They are two completely different types of WR archetypes.
Legette’s game is tied to designed plays and yards after the catch, which I think new HC Dave Canales will take advantage of. He’s gone from 17th in my rookie rankings to 12th overall. In the overall rookie post-round 1 ECR, Legette moved up from 23rd to 9th overall.
I love the overall staff that Canales brought in, with many joining him from the Buccaneers – a team that drastically played above expectations. Joe Gilbert was the Buccaneers’ OL coach last year and got the most out of the unit the team did not invest much money into. Will Harriger was hired as the QB coach after stints in Dallas (2023) and USC (2022), where we saw some impressive QB performances from Dak Prescott and Caleb Williams. It’s early, but I want to be “higher” on Carolina than the market heading into next season.
The upgrades at OL and WR remind us not to write off Bryce Young after his no-win situation during his rookie season.
The Patriots could have drafted Ladd McConkey with the 34th overall pick, but they opted to trade the pick to the Chargers. This will forever tie McConkey’s NFL career to Ja’Lynn Polk‘s. Praying my Patriots didn’t blow this pick. However, I should note that it wasn’t just Polk they were able to get in the trade. They also got Javon Baker with the 4th-round pick they acquired. A twist? You bet.
Because the Ladd McConkey landing spot with the Chargers is pretty tough to beat. He’s on a very weak WR depth chart, so we could easily project McConkey to lead the team in targets with his route-running prowess. Even in a run-heavy offense, I’d expect McConkey to be uber-efficient as he was at the college level. He finished 8th in the nation in yards per route run (3.26) in 2023.
The former Georgia Bulldog is attached to Justin Herbert throughout his career, and we could easily see the Chargers QB lean on McConkey in a Keenan Allen way. Double-digit targets as far as the eyes can see.
The low projected passing volume will be the main argument against McConkey, but if he’s the clear No. 1 target, I don’t think it will be an issue.
Because getting McConkey on the Chargers was a priority by the front office per the team’s official website.
“He was a guy that we targeted,” Joe Hortiz said. “He was a guy all the scouts targeted, all the scouts looked at it and all the scouts and coaches loved. “Me and Joe [Hortiz] were talking about him, he’s very [Raiders TE] Brock Bowers-like with the way that he gets yards after the catch,” Harbaugh added. “Competitor, big-time. Those things. He catches the ball. A terrific route-runner. He has the quickness, he has the speed that is going to be great for our offense. I love the guys that can run in the 4.3s.” per
Christian McCaffrey‘s brother was the final pick in Round 3 by the Washington Commanders. They were in need of a slot WR, and the younger LMC can fill that void in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. Luke McCaffrey has not been playing WR for very long, but he possesses elite athletic bloodlines that have helped him make the positional switch.
Usually, I don’t chase the draft capital of WRs that go well ahead of consensus, but McCaffrey’s Day 2 draft capital needs to put fantasy managers on notice.
I wasn’t high enough on him in my pre-draft rankings, as I essentially ranked him as my last WR who I would theoretically draft with some semblance of confidence.
In Luke McCaffrey’s final season at Rice, he commanded a 30% target share (5th) and ranked 9th in total unique routes run.
He’s another weapon for Jayden Daniels in a new-look Commanders offense.
Jermaine Burton was rumored to fall in the draft due to off-the-field issues. So, it’s a massive win for his NFL outlook for him to earn Round 3 draft capital (80th) overall by the Bengals.
The writing is on the wall that Tee Higgins is not in the Bengals’ long-term plans. Whether he gets moved this year or next offseason, Burton’s stock will be on the rise this time in 2025.
Better to get ahead of it now rather than later.
Because the guy can straight-up ball when his head is on straight. Here’s what I wrote about him pre-draft:
“Took forever to “break out” until his senior year at 22 years old with a 30% dominator rating as a member of the Crimson Tide. He transferred from the University of Georgia over his first two seasons to Alabama his final two collegiate seasons. Although he did post a very serviceable 19% dominator rating his first year at Bama (essentially a breakout), with 677 yards and 7 TDs.
And Burton also produced decently during his time in Georgia despite facing a myriad of tough competition. 16% dominator rating in 2020 as a true freshman (19 years old) while competing for targets with George Pickens. During his second season as a Bulldog, Burton was second on the team in receiving yards behind only Brock Bowers – despite competing for targets with the aforementioned tight end, Ladd McConkey and Adonai Mitchell (future second-round NFL selections).
He was also used exclusively downfield during his final year, with a 20.2 aDOT (3rd-highest in the FBS) in 2023. And zero drops. Burton finished 12th overall in yards per route run. Burton possesses and explosive skillset with 4.45 wheels and jumps in the 82nd percentile-plus.
He’s a big play waiting to happen but likely won’t command a hyper-intense target share at the next level. He’s got two games on his college resume with double-digit targets. He also has some off-field issue concerns that could hurt his draft capital in the real-life NFL.”
He’s an awesome fit as the future Robin to Ja’Marr Chase‘s Batman in Cincy’s WR room.
Here’s what Bengals HC Zac Taylor had to say about the former Alabama WR per the team’s official website.
Jermaine (Burton) is one of those guys where we see a fit now and in the future, so it’s we were real happy he was there in the third round, and we could go grab him and he can help us.”
You want to talk about Jermaine (Burton) specifically, you can see him see him run all sorts of routes from all positions. You see him making contested plays down the field, you see him run away from people down the field, you see no drops on tape this year — didn’t see a single one. And you saw run after the catch. You saw great scramble awareness, getting in phase with the quarterback and creating big plays on scrambles. So, I just think he’s got the ability to really add to the competition in that room. I’m really excited. We obviously have two set in stone starters in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and now we’ve got Jermaine, Andrei (Iosivas) and Charlie (Jones), who we took last year, Trenton Irwin, who has always continued to roles and ways to help this team, and then there’s the guys behind them as well. It’s just a really deep room. There’s going to be opportunity for all of those guys and I’m excited to see how it all plays out.”
The Patriots drafted a new WR weapon for rookie QB Drake Maye with the 37th overall pick after trading down with the Los Angeles Chargers (upgrading a 5th to a 4th in this year’s draft as a result).
Ja’Lynn Polk is best described as a jack of all trades and master of none. The “Toyota Corolla” among the rookie WR class.
At 6’1? and 203 lbs, Polk is a good size and has the ideal build for a versatile receiver capable of playing both on the outside and in the slot, although the latter is probably where he would find the most success.
In Eliot Wolf’s post-Day 2 presser, the Pats de facto GM reflected on the Polk selection, claiming, ” He does everything, well-rounded, ball-winner, and provides yards after the catch.”
He was hesitant to label him an “X” given the Patriots’ specific WR needs-but suggested he’s confident that Polk can play the X, Y, Z, etc. He also praised his blocking.
In his time at Washington, Polk demonstrated significant growth, culminating in a senior year after suffering an injury as a sophomore. He recorded impressive stats with 69 receptions for 1,159 yards and nine touchdowns, boasting an average of 16.8 yards per catch. He also started the 2023 season on absolute fire, scoring eight TDs in the first 10 weeks of the season alongside a teammate and fellow 2024 draft-eligible WR, Rome Odunze.
Polk’s blend of speed, agility, and size makes him a compelling prospect. His quickness off the line is complemented by his strong hands and body control, enabling him to make challenging catches in traffic. He’s extremely well-rounded and tough.
Reminded me of Mohamed Sanu and Tyler Boyd. Other NFL Draft evaluators like Dane Burgler have compared Polk to Joshua Palmer (the quintessential just-a-guy comparison). High-end comps are Polk compared to Chris Godwin (by Connor Rodgers), who should be fully taking over a fully featured slot role with the Patriots. But given all the slot WRs already on the Pats, I think Polk is going to be asked to play outside as well (especially in two TE sets).
I was initially down on the Patriots’ selection of Polk, but I think that getting a solid high-floor WR after all the second-round busts they’ve taken isn’t the worst thing. They had a lot of intel on the selection of Polk, given that the Patriots’ current WR coach, Tyler Hughes, spent the 2023 season as the Washington Huskies’ quality control coach on offense.
It’s also very possible that Polk would have been on the cusp of an eruption season in 2024 college football had he not declared early. Or if Rome Odunze had declared for the NFL last season, Polk could have been the featured guy in Washington’s offense and would have bonkers numbers to show for it.
The biggest concern with a guy like Polk – aside from having a rookie QB – is that he never commanded a high target share, especially when Jalen McMillan was healthy. But going to the Patriots – arguably one of the least impressive WR rooms – gives him a chance to stand out above the rest.
But in conclusion, Polk’s landing with the Patriots at No. 37 overall doesn’t move the needle for me up or down too drastically in my rookie rankings. There were better spots he could have gone and spots that could have been much worse.
I will also say that Polk’s overall lackluster profile suggests that DeMario Douglas could easily be the Patriots’ No. 1 WR and target leader in 2024.
But he won’t be my highest-ranked WR from the Patriots. I was shouting to the heavens from my Peloton bike when this Javon Baker pick was announced. I absolutely loved the Patriots selection of the UCF WR, one of my favorite WR sleepers in this draft class.
The 6-foot-1 and 202-pound WR was a big-play savant, owning the second-highest yards per reception (21.9) nationally in 2023. He ended the season fifth in yards per route run among the 2024 WR draft class (3.21).
Baker finished fourth in targets and third in receptions of 20+ air yards in 2023. The only other WRs in the class to do so? The consensus top-four (Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers).
He reminds me of a ton of DeVonta Smith from a route-running and body-control perspective. Baker has more size and yards after the catch (YAC) to his game, though.
So even though the Patriots drafted Polk in Round 2, I view that as the safer WR pick. Baker should be the preferred fantasy target given is WR1 potential upside in a barren New England WR room.
New England has desperately needed a WR with an edge to his game, and the former UCF product brings that immediately. He broke the internet with this quote after being drafted saying, “I make people in wheelchairs stand up.” New head coach Jerod Mayo described him as a “all ball.”
The Buccaneers didn’t lose Mike Evans in free agency after he re-signed for another two years, but they were likely to add more WRs in the draft, given that Chris Godwin is in the last year of his deal. Russell Gage was released, and Trey Palmer didn’t do enough as a rookie to lock in his status as WR3 in the 2024 Buccaneers offense.
Jalen McMillan can step in as the WR3 as soon as this season, and WR2 is within his reach come 2025.
I highlighted the former Huskies slot WR as a dynasty sleeper in my pre-draft rookie WRs article.
Here’s what I had to say:
“McMillan broke out in his second season at Washington at 20 years old. He compiled a 19% dominator rating, which set the stage for what was coming for him in 2022 when he had his best college season – 1,098 receiving yards and nine TDs. Those numbers were good for a 25% dominator rating despite competing for targets with future NFL WRs Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk. He led the Huskies in targets and catches in 2022.
Alas, he could not sustain that success into this past season as the No. 3 option in Washington’s pass attack, given his injury and lack of usage downfield (9.6 average depth of target) in a vertical passing attack.
It won’t get easier to command targets at the next level. The fact McMillan showed he’s capable of rising to the occasion of elite target competition bodes well for him should he end up on a weaker NFL WR depth chart.
All in all, he’s a strong route runner with an early enough breakout age. McMillan has played over 89% of the snaps from the slot over the last two seasons.
Odds are that one of McMillan or Polk will perform well above expectation at the next level, given how they likely hurt each other’s statistics the past two seasons with Washington’s spread offense.”
Where have I seen this before? Sean Payton trades up for a WR in the NFL Draft. He did it with Brandin Cooks in New Orleans, and did it with Marvin Mims last season. And in 2024, he did it once again, by moving up the board to acquire a falling Duck in Oregon’s Troy Franklin, pairing him with his former college quarterback/presumed Broncos QB1, Bo Nix.
Franklin’s fall from a fringe 1st-round pick to Day 3 isn’t ideal, but in another year where WR wasn’t as deep he likely would have gone earlier. Other teams were scared off due to his poor combine showing. And he lands on a relatively weak WR depth chart where his 4th -round pedigree won’t hinder his playing time.
Franklin’s addition does not bode well for Marvin Mims, given they have some overlapping skill sets. Payton had come out and said that he envisions Franklin in the “Z” role, which was occupied by Jerry Jeudy last season.
And if you are Nix, seems likely you’ll prefer your teammate you’ve built chemistry with the past several years than a second-year WR that struggled to earn playing time/targets as a rookie.
Ainias Smith (WR – Texas A & M)
One of my favorite sleepers in this class got a great landing spot with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Ainias Smith first burst onto the scene in 2020, posting a 27% dominator rating at 19 years old while leading the Aggies in receiving yards in a pandemic-shortened season. He also carried the ball 49 times for 293 yards and four TDs as he also started at running back.
Smith sustained his success in his third season but got hurt in 2022. He was also arrested in the summer of 2022 for a DUI, possession of marijuana and unlawful carrying of a weapon. The charges were dropped.
The 5-foot-9 and 190-pound WR bounced back in his final year in 2023, amassing a career-high 795 receiving yards on 53 catches with two TDs (15% dominator rating). His broken tackles per catch (2.0) ranked second in the 2024 WR class.
He will turn 23 years old this year.
Smith also has experience as a return specialist. He had an 82-yard punt return TD in 2023 and led the SEC in punt return yards in 2023.
If all the red flags are behind him, Smith’s versatility will surely be attractive to NFL teams given his diverse skill set as a slot WR. He’s not the fastest guy but he’s dynamic in the open field.
The team that has met with Smith the most during the pre-draft process is the Philadelphia Eagles.
So no surprise that Howie Roseman got his guy. Given that the Eagles are currently trotting out the injury-prone DeVante Parker and Parris Campbell as the projected No. 3 WRs, I think Smith could crack the starting lineup. I also loved the Eagles’ other late-round selection of WR Johnny Wilson, out of Florida State.
RUNNING BACKS
The rumor was that Texas’ Jonathon Brooks (or any RB) wouldn’t be drafted inside the top 50 picks in this year’s draft. That turned out not to be the case, with Brooks being selected 46th overall by the Carolina Panthers.
Coming off the torn ACL injury, the reports have all been positive for Brooks regarding his availability for training camp. But as Carolina looks to play the long game, what should we realistically expect from Brooks in Year 1?
After all, the Panthers have two capable backs-Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders-under contract until at least the end of this season. Hubbard will be a free agent, while Sanders can be cut for a minimal dead cap hit.
To me, it would make logical sense for Brooks to take on a pseudo-redshirt season as he comes back from the ACL injury. The Panthers can ride out Hubbard and Sanders and then unleash Brooks in 2025-or at least for the start of the season, with Brooks getting ramped up as the weeks progress.
Given the Panthers’ current RB depth chart, I think the market might have been too bullish on Brooks from the get-go. Even though Carolina has made upgrades across the OL, we have yet to see this offense in functioning action.
However, given his top-50 draft capital, it’s impossible not to label Brooks a winner, despite coming off a torn ACL. Even if it takes some time, I can only imagine Brooks’ dynasty value increasing as we inch closer to 2025.
Even though Brooks went as the No. 1 RB, he wasn’t the only RB to land in a great spot. Trey Benson was selected by the Arizona Cardinals at the top of Round 3 (66th overall).
I love the spot for him on an ascending Cardinals offense with James Conner entering the last year of his contract.
I fully expect Conner to still be the “bell cow” in 2024 if he is able to maintain his health. Obviously, that’s not a given. But in the meantime, Benson has the size/speed profile to flash his explosiveness while working in tandem with Conner.
And if/when Conner goes down, it will be the Benson show in the desert.
It’s possible that this will not happen until 2025, but given Conner’s durability concerns, I do think we will see plenty of Benson in Year 1.
Given how Day 2 went regarding RBs (only 4 RBs were drafted), I think that Benson and Brooks have solidified their position atop the RB rookie class (Day 3 rookie RB to Dallas withstanding).
And when I think about who I want to rank higher with draft capital and landing spots decided, I still think I prefer Benson ever so slightly.
To start, I don’t think either opens the year as the “starter” on their offense. Conner’s been a stud for the Cardinals when healthy. And it doesn’t make sense to me for the Panthers to overload Brooks coming off an injury. I could be wrong (especially in the latter), but that’s where my mind is at.
When it comes to who can flash the most in limited touches, it’s Benson. Given his explosiveness versus Conner, he’s going to have moments where he looks great in open space. The Cardinals offense upgraded its OL both in free agency (Evan Brown, Jonah Williams) and the NFL Draft (Isaiah Adams). And the offense should be better in general with a healthy mobile Kyler Murray under center.
Carolina has also upgraded its OL, but the offense is still a wait-and-see with all the new pieces. And given Brooks’s ACL injury, will he actually be as explosive as his previous self? Even if guys come back to football less than a year after the injury, it’s usually not until the next season that they regain all their explosiveness.
So, if both rookie RBs are biding their time, I’d expect Benson to flash more.
All in all, I’d expect both Brooks and Benson to get opportunities as bell cows in their respective offenses at some point in 2024. But given their current circumstances, I’d bet Benson can do more with Arizona than Brooks with Carolina in Year 1.
Therefore, even when both guys are teed up to be their respective clear-cut RB1s in 2025 and beyond, I’d bet Benson is the higher-valued back by the consensus. So, he will remain my RB1 of this rookie class.
However, I must disclose that Brooks moved up from RB3 to RB2 in my rookie rankings after his draft selection.
Day 2 came, and the Raiders invested zero draft picks in RBs. This is a win for Zamir White, especially with Las Vegas bolstering their IOL with Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson. In Round 3, they drafted OT Delmar Glaze.
The only RB they drafted was New Hampshire’s Dylan Laube in Round 6. Laube’s intriguing as a do-it-all running back. Produced from the get-go at UNH with a 23% dominator rating, showcasing his early proficiency as a receiver with four receiving TDs and 259 receiving yards.
He capped off his collegiate career with back-to-back dominator ratings of 35% and 32% from 2022-2023 (both top-five marks in the class). In 2022, he imposed his will as a rusher with over 1,200 yards and 15 rushing scores. In 2023, Laube was more of a receiver with 68 catches for 708 yards on 88 targets.
The elite pass-catching production didn’t go unnoticed and aided the 5-foot-10 and 206-pounder to get drafted.
His 1.52 10-yard split ranked above the 80th percentile and his 20-yard shuttle was one of the fastest recorded times since 1999 at 4.02 seconds (96th percentile).
White, Alexander Mattison, and Ameer Abdullah round out the current Raiders depth chart. If Laube can show out as a pass-catcher, we could see him usurp Abdullah in that role.
The Chargers waited until Round 6 to draft Troy’s Kimani Vidal. It’s a win for Gus Edwards that it’s only J.K. Dobbins (off another season-ending injury) and the 6th-round rookie he is truly competing with in the Chargers backfield. But given the amount of RB touches we could see in a run-heavy, we should be open to the idea multiple Chargers RBs can be fantasy viable.
Vidal finished second in the FBS in forced missed tackles (94) in 2023. The 5-foot-8 and 218-pound rusher is built with a stout compact frame, which aided him in his efforts to 1,661 rushing yards (second in the FBS) in 2023. That awarded him a 31% dominator rating in his final season at Troy (fifth-highest in 2023) after a 24% dominator rating in 2022. Concerns are his bottom-10 yards per play at 2.34 and the level of competition faced at Troy. LAC is definitely one of the better spots for him to produce in Year 1, given that Edwards nor Dobbins have been long-time starters.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB – DAL)
Although nothing is official, the Cowboys are showing their hand with their current RB plans for 2024. They’ve leaked several reports about wanting to re-sign Ezekiel Elliott. And they added virtually zero RBs during the NFL Draft with any worthwhile draft capital.
Jerry Jones pic.twitter.com/L84tXBwTo4
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) April 27, 2024
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB – NYG)
Among the 2024 rookie RB class, not many of the Day 3 selections landed in situations with clear paths to touches. Ray Davis, Bucky Irving, Isaac Guerendo and Will Shipley don’t look like anything more than glorified handcuffs.
The lone exception in my estimation is Purdue’s Tyrone Tracy, who was selected by the Giants in Round 5. Devin Singletary is by far the weakest veteran RB when it comes to his skill set. He does everything right, but I don’t think he offers a ton of upside. Tracy could be an upside play in the Giants backfield should Singletary flounder with the starting gig.
Giants HC Brian Daboll on Tracy…
“He’s an athlete who has played receiver and then played running back and has some good production,” said Daboll. “We’ll throw him in the mix. Whether that’s in the kickoff return game or whether that’s at running back or the receiving part of it, we’ve got to do a good job of getting him in here and seeing where he’s at and then trying to fit him into the things that he can do well.” – Per Giants Wire.
Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI)
I thought that Will Shipley had one of the worst profiles coming out in this rookie RB class. I fully expect Saquon Barkley to be a total workhorse in the Eagles offense in 2024 after he got the bag from Howie Roseman.
Rachaad White (RB- TB)
The Buccaneers drafted an undersized unathletic RB on Day 3. The only concern is that he eats into Rachaad White’s target share. Bucky Irving is quicker than fast with a Devin Singletary comparison. Considering the Buccaneers could have drafted a big back to vulture goal-line TDs instead, I’d be satisfied with Irving as the RB2 behind White.
TIGHT ENDS
It’s hard to beat the landing spot that Ben Sinnott got with the Commanders, a team that was desperately looking for additional playmakers.
Pre-draft, the top three playmakers for the Commanders were Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, and Zach Ertz (cringe).
Dyami Brown and Jamison Crowder are penciled in to see a ton of WR snaps, which likely isn’t ideal. Ertz is not a long-term option at tight end.
Given the overwhelming evidence of more than 1 of these Washington decision-makers drafting a tight end with Day 2 capital, I expected the Commanders to draft a tight end in this year’s draft.
And Sinnott fits what Adam Peters (formerly of the 49ers) would want at tight end. Great after the catch, super productive at the college level, above average athleticism, and experience as a fullback.
He’s Sam LaPorta, George Kittle, and Kyle Juszczyk all wrapped up into a fun package. The best part is that he has a path to targets in the Commanders’ offense.
Now, it remains to be seen how effective Jayden Daniels will be in Year 1. But it’s clear that Sinnott has firmly stamped his TE2 ticket in this class after hovering in that area pre-draft.
I liked him a lot as a tight-end prospect, so I don’t need to be convinced any further with this great situation he finds himself in.
It’s better than Brock Bowers‘s situation with the Raiders, as I wrote about in my 2024 NFL Draft Round 1 Winners & Losers (Fantasy Football).
Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE- CAR)
The Panthers are a very sneaky fantasy football landing spot for a tight end – given that Dave Canales “awarded” Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton an elite role in 2023. The Bucs tight end played nearly every single snap and ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks (3rd among TEs). Look out for Ja’Tavion Sanders in a full-time receiving role for the Panthers. Sorry Tommy Tremble.
Sanders just turned 21 years old. He broke out very early in his college career at age 19 during the 2022 season, posting a 21% dominator rating with 5 TDs, 54 receptions (7th in the nation) and 613 receiving yards.
In 2023, he was still extremely efficient even with his counting stats falling amid an ankle injury and competition from two highly drafted WRs this year – Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell. He recorded zero drops on 67 targets and finished 3rd in total YAC among the 2024 tight end class. He averaged over 15 yards per catch – second highest in the class (15.2) – with his downfield presence. But he wasn’t featured in the red zone.
Sanders isn’t a complete blocker – much more of a tight end receiver type – but he has enough athleticism to be a solid receiving threat at the next level. There’s room for Sanders to grow given his youth.
Theo Johnson (TE – NYG)
The rumor was the Giants were searching for a pass-catching tight end in this year’s draft, with Darren Waller likely retiring. Theo Johnson has a chance to command targets in Big Blue’s offense, which is a win in my book. Daniel Bellinger is more of a blocking tight end. And after fellow rookie Malik Nabers, HC Brian Daboll is searching for playmakers to get the ball to.
Brock Bowers seeing all the other rookie TE fun landing spots pic.twitter.com/NpMzJuRa5t
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) April 27, 2024
Jonnu Smith (TE – MIA)
Miami didn’t add any tight end of consequence during the NFL Draft. Again, a W by default for Jonnu Smith, who fits very well into the Dolphins offense. He will compete with 6th-rounder Malik Washington (who also benefits from the landing spot) as the No. 3 pass-catcher. Let the best YAC-receiver win.
Miami also added another WR late in round 7 with USC’s Tahj Washington. Another sleeper WR of mine. He’s an exceptional route runner and slot player, and he is useful after the catch. Washington was second in the class in both YAC/reception and broken missed tackle per reception.
NFL DRAFT LOSERS
QUARTERBACKS
As a real-life Patriots fan, I am thrilled. As a fantasy football analyst, I am terrified. New England was always pegged as the worst landing spot for a rookie QB not named New York. And it’s still not amazing, given the needs at WR/LT.
Now they added to the needs with later picks in the draft – WR Ja’Lynn Polk, WR Javon Baker, OT Caedan Wallace – but they are still rookies.
I love the safe/upside approach at WR with Polk and Baker. Wallace was RT at Penn State, but the Patriots believe he can flip to the LT based on his athletic testing. 81st percentile vertical jump and 96th percentile broad jump. I even liked the 7th-round dart throw on Jaheim Bell, the TE out of Florida State.
If these guys hit, the situation might change in a hurry.
With Jacoby Brissett entrenched as the bridge QB, this might be a longer process than many impatient fantasy owners would want.
For a rebuilding team in dynasty, you want Maye for the long-term upside. I know I will. But for 2024 redraft formats, you are much better off going in another direction than with Maye.
The former UNC QB went from 13th to 19th overall in the rookie dynasty ECR (1 QB league) after Round 1.
The shocker of the Night 1 was the Falcons drafting Michael Penix Jr. at eighth overall. I won’t get into all the semantics for what is essentially a very expensive insurance policy taken out by Atlanta. Again, Cousins is coming off an Achilles tear, and the Falcons offense was the healthiest in the NFL last season.
Trying to wrap my mind around the Michael Penix pick at 8 overall
I find I don't hate the Penix pick like most do.
At least not as much.
But I get the criticism.
After all who actually ENJOYS paying for insurance
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) April 26, 2024
They won’t have as many injuries in 2024. So, for all the people that ripping this pick, be sure to ask them how they feel when Penix steps in and wins games for Atlanta in 2024.
The Falcons’ biggest need was QB. And they doubled down in free agency and the draft to make sure QB play wouldn’t hold them back. I think their roster was in a position to take a luxury pick. He also fits the offense that Zac Robinson is going to bring in.
Considering the Raiders might have taken him at 13, they weren’t in a scenario where they could have waited to pull the trigger on Penix.
Still, it’s weird that Cousins wasn’t debriefed, especially since the Falcons took visits from Penix during the pre-draft process. That’s why I bet them to draft Penix at +3000, as discussed in my 2024 NFL Draft Prop Bet Card.
It’s not ideal for Cousins’ commitment long-term in dynasty or for him to possibly lose the job to Penix in 2024. That guy has a rocket arm, and any delay with the Achilles could open an opportunity for Penix to seize the QB1 role.
I will say that I love the Penix move for the offensive pieces in Atlanta. I was very concerned that a potential Cousins injury could derail Bijan Robinson, Drake London, etc. But with Penix entrenched as the ultimate backup plan, I feel so much better drafting the Falcons in 2024, knowing that they are going to get hit by the injury bug.
And if the Penix pick doesn’t light a fire under Cousins to play his absolute best ball, nothing will.
The Falcons are doing WHATEVER it takes to have above-average QB play in 2024. And if the defensive picks they made on Day 2 – Ruke Orhorhoro and Bralen Trice – turn into legitimate pass rushers (akin to what they could have gotten if they went defense at 8 overall) then nobody is going to look back and bash this pick as bad. The only thing that should be bashed is the $100 million contract they shelled out in free agency.
Denver took the last quarterback with the 12th-overall pick in what was a massive reach with Oregon’s Bo Nix. The QB check-down artist was severely over drafted because Denver had to draft a QB. But with no second-round picks, the Broncos had to take him in the first round.
It’s great for RB targets in Denver, but aside from that, I am not excited about this Broncos offense. Case in point, ECR dropped Nix from 31 to 45th overall in 1QB leagues after being selected by the Broncos at 12th overall.
Marvin Mims is slated for an expanded role, in what I would hope could be Nix’s new version of Troy Franklin. Well, at least that is what I first anticipated until the Broncos traded up into the 4th round to select the former Orgon WR.
So, Mims is a low-key loser, with Nix likely favoring his former college teammate.
I’d like to say Nix is an upgrade over Jarrett Stidham/Zach Wilson but I am not entirely sure. Sean Payton is really rolling the dice on Nix-Franklin working in his offense.
I can’t bring myself to invest in Nix, but I am open to Franklin as a sleeper WR even as a Day 3 selection.
Derek Carr (QB – NO)
I think the addition of Spencer Rattler late in Round 5 is telling. Among all the obvious QB-needy teams, I always felt quarterback was an area the Saints would address after the up-and-down play from Derek Carr in 2023. He’s still the clear starter this year, but another shaky performance could have the Saints entertain a change of heart under center.
After the 2024 season, his dead cap falls to $17 million versus his $45 million salary cap hit. If he underwhelms in 2024, he could be on the way out of New Orleans.
spencer rattler after derek carr throws his 3rd interception week 5 vs the falcons pic.twitter.com/OQdLgAauZ3
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) April 27, 2024
WIDE RECEIVERS
Slick Rick hit the jackpot Thursday night. Earned first-round draft capital in an offense that schemes WRs in the best way and takes advantage of their strengths.
Still, I am somewhat skeptical of how high Pearsall’s ceiling is.
As I wrote in his rookie preview, “Pearsall’s experience as a fifth-year senior and refined game makes him a high-floor player that can get hit the get-go from Day 1, but he may not have any more ceiling to unlock unless he lands with a truly elite NFL passer.”
The 49ers are in a “win-now” mode so they cannot afford to draft a WR that needs to develop. Pearsall can step in on Day 1 and be productive, especially if and when they trade Deebo Samuel/Brandon Aiyuk.
But that likely won’t happen during this remaining offseason, but things could change as the season progresses and over the next offseason.
But without an imminent trade, I’m not sure how much I like him in 2024. The 49ers offense is already tough to project when the “Big 3” and CMC are on the field. Adding another WR to the fold further complicates things without an injury.
And I was already so-so on Pearsall long-term. Obviously, we could see his role expand in Year 2, with odds that Samuel/Aiyuk don’t both return. But how much will his rookie ADP have that baked in…I am interested to see.
In the initial rookie ECR Post-Round 1, Pearsall climbed up from 19th to 13th in the rookie rankings.
Given his draft capital bump, I might be out-bid in my efforts to acquire much of Pearsall in rookie and 2024 redraft formats. Not sure I’ll pay the full 1st-round WR price tag with question marks about this year’s production, and his true long-term upside even in a starting role.
I think a sharp move to take advantage of a future departure from Samuel/Aiyuk would be to draft
Jacob Cowing with a late rookie pick. Cowing was drafted at the end of Round 4.
At under 5-foot-9 and 168 pounds soaking wet (1st percentile), Cowing may not possess the towering frame of some of his contemporaries, but what he lacks in size, he more than compensates for with his speed, agility, and precise/nuanced route-running, making him a constant threat to opposing defenses.
Because he dominated production while at Arizona and his previous stop at UTEP. 32% career dominator rating ranks No. 1 in the class.
We saw a fellow undersized rookie WR in Tank Dell thrive in a Kyle Shanahan-style offense with Houston last season. Perhaps the 49ers see something similar in Cowing. Not to mention, he’s got sub-4.4 wheels and can contribute on special teams.
Cowing is another one of my favorite WR sleepers in this class.
And like Pearsall, he’s an older product so he can hit the ground running.
Gabe Davis signed a free-agent contract with the Jaguars just to see them draft a better, younger and more explosive version of Brian Thomas Jr. in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
I think Thomas would be the favored perimeter downfield target for Trevor Lawrence, with Christian Kirk/Evan Engram eating up the short-to-intermediate targets.
If the former LSU WR can absorb the role vacated by Calvin Ridley – nearly 1,800 air yards, 22.5% target share, 36% air yards share, NFL leader in EZ targets, WR10 in expected fantasy points per game – Thomas will be one of the best rookies WR targets in fantasy football. However, this might be accompanied by a lack of consistency – given that Thomas doesn’t project to be a target alpha in an offense with so many playmakers. But there’s high-end splash week potential with Thomas in Jacksonville.
Recall, that Lawrence has made guys like Kirk and Zay Jones fantasy-relevant the past two seasons.
It’s also great for the Jaguars QB to return as a low-end fantasy QB1 after falling short of expectations in 2023.
The additions of Thomas and Davis likely mark the end of Jones in DUVAL County.
Once viewed as a lock for the first round, AD Mitchell fell to the 53rd overall pick. The Colts drafted him as a logical upgrade from 2022’s second-round pick, Alec Pierce.
As an explosive vertical threat, Mitchell’s game could translate well to Anthony Richardson‘s big arm.
But in an offense heralded by a mobile quarterback, Mitchell is facing an uphill battle for targets. Michael Pittman Jr. (another winner with Mitchell as the WR Indy drafted) is the target alpha. And last year’s second-round pick, Josh Downs, projects for No. 2 in the target pecking order.
Mitchell screams like the 3rd-target at best, with his opportunities coming in the form of downfield and high-value pass attempts.
It’s great in best ball for splash weeks. But relying on Mitchell to bring in any consistency is a fool’s errand.
Still, I think savvy dynasty managers should be wise to Mitchell’s big-game potential. If he falls too far in rookie drafts, scoop him up. And the minute he blows up with a 2-TD/150-yard game, you put him straight on the trade block.
Mitchell’s poor analytical profiles remind me of Kadarius Toney‘s coming out. But what saved Toney and his dynasty value for such a long time? One insane game versus the Cowboys. I could see Mitchell’s career playing out in a similar way, especially in an offense with a young QB.
Once viewers get a glimpse of Mitchell’s upside, they’ll be hooked. Take advantage.
Thor’s comp for new Jets WR Malachi Corley? Amari Rodgers. Rodgers was drafted by the Packers in 2021. The OC was Nathaniel Hackett. Corley’s new OC with the Jets is Nathaniel Hackett.
As a prospect who is more RB than actually WR in his play style, I am not thrilled about his pairing. Hackett has shown zero creativity and progression in adapting to his unique offensive personnel, making me very concerned Corley is nothing more than a gadget YAC player in the Jets offense.
Even with top-end Round 3 daft capital, I’ll let someone else take a swing on Corley.
It’s always smart to pay attention to the WRs that the Steelers draft on Day 2. Their track record of hits in the middle rounds is one of the best in the NFL.
And I think Roman Wilson will be a nice addition, albeit more in real life than fantasy.
Keep in mind that Wilson’s best year came this past season.
His standout senior year saw him amass 48 receptions for 789 yards and 12 touchdowns, resulting in a 37% dominator rating in 2023, the sixth-highest single-season dominator rating in the class.
But it comes with concerns, including his late breakout age at 22 years old and the fact that he could only muster one legitimate year of production.
Also, his lack of overall counting stats was due to the run-heavy offense he played as Michigan’s deep threat. According to Sports Info Solutions, 53% of his routes ran were downfield.
Given that the Steelers project is extremely run-heavy after the hiring of OC Arthur Smith – in addition to the draft selections of OL Zach Frazier and OL Troy Fautanu – I’m finding it hard to be excited about Wilson for fantasy purposes.
Fading a Steelers mid-round WR selection is always a risky proposition, but I’m not finding many ways where not drafting Wilson buries in me in 2024.
Devontez Walker (WR – BAL)
Getting Lamar Jackson as your QB is a win, but it comes with the caveat as the fourth option in the target pecking order. Zay Flowers is WR1 and Mark Andrews could be the leader in total targets.
If the Ravens hadn’t re-signed Rashod Bateman, I’d be higher on Walker. But for now, he just looks like a depth piece on the Ravens’ offense.
RUNNING BACKS
Many wondered whether the Rams would invest in an RB in this year’s draft. Based on Sean McVay’s drafting track record, I felt there was a strong chance they would. Insert Michigan’s Blake Corum in Round 3 (83rd overall).
I don’t think this denounces Williams as the RB1 in LA, but it gives McVay another option in case Williams suffers another injury. He’s gotten hurt both years he has played in the NFL. Last year, the Rams went right back to him, with nobody else worth much on the depth chart.
Corum changes that equation substantially. He is a do-it-all RB, similar to Williams, even if neither are super explosive athletes.
I’d be strongly fading Williams as a top redraft pick, given the Corum addition, while hyper-targeting the former Wolverine as a premier late-round RB target. Any volume that Corum takes on in the Rams’ backfield will hurt Williams’ fantasy value. A lot of his production was tied to his super-high snap share in 2023 (2nd behind only CMC). It’s coming down.
Also, thanks to Sean McVay for drafting Corum, which ensured my +4000 Rams to draft Blake Corum ticket was cashed. Bang. Bang.
I felt that MarShawn Lloyd would be one of the most landing spot-dependent rookie RBs in this class.
I wrote this about him pre-draft:
“In his final and last season at USC, he posted a 15% dominator rating with nine TDs and 816 rushing yards.
Lloyd was one of the biggest risers during the 2024 Senior Bowl, which shouldn’t go unnoticed. All-Star game performances influence draft capital, which can make or break some of these later-selected RBs.
However, this could end up being a potential pitfall, given Lloyd’s yards per play at 2.4 is very poor compared to the rest of the class.
At 5-foot-9 and 220 pounds, Lloyd looks like a carbon copy of another former Senior Bowl RB riser – Dameon Pierce. And like Pierce, he comes with red flags of a poor overall dominator rating as a player who could never become the true featured RB in a college backfield.
Despite his strengths as a tackle-breaker (like Pierce), it might not be enough to truly vault him into consistent fantasy production if he can’t stand out against other RBs. Again – like Pierce – Lloyd never surpassed 150 touches in any season, with only three games of 20+ touches. Also dealt with injuries consistently, which contributed to smaller workloads.”
On an RB depth chart that features the newly signed Josh Jacobs, A.J. Dillon, and Emanuel Wilson, Lloyd is facing a major uphill battle to make an impact. The Round 3 draft capital is great, but this landing spot is abysmal.
De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)
The on-field landing spot is dynamite for Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright to the Miami Dolphins. But it’s pretty telling that the Dolphins traded up to acquire Wright after De’Von Achane’s injuries last season.
Has me convinced that Mike McDaniel will just use whatever speed RB he has to his disposal, whether that be Achane or Wright. And that not’s factoring how much Raheem Mostert will also be used, as the presumed starter who was extended during the offseason.
A major hit for Achane, even with Wright coming in as a Round 4 pick.
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN)
Since Sean Payton arrived in Denver, all he has done is bring in other RBs like Samaje Perine, Jaleel McLaughlin and now 2024 5th-rounder, Audric Estime. Estime landing in Denver is not ideal for his fantasy prospects, but it’s possible this whole backfield is a mess. Especially considering it’s a Bo Nix led offensive unit. The only thing we can pray for is these RBs should see plenty of targets given Nix’s egregiously low average depth of target.
Furthermore, the Broncos signed UDFA Blake Watson from Memphis, who profiles as a strong pass-catcher. I’d usually write-off any UDFA especially at RB, but the Broncos embraced McLaughlin as UDFA just a year ago. I’d be concerned about how much Javonte dominates this backfield.
Head coach Sean Payton has come out and been positive about Estime, citing he will be competing for touches behind Javonte on 1st and 2nd down.
Braelon Allen (RB – NYJ)
Landing on a RB depth chart behind Breece Hall? Not ideal. It’s possible Allen can push another very young RB in Izzy Abanikanda – who the Jets drafted on Day 3 last year. A RB training camp battle to monitor. And it gets even more fun considering the Jets also drafted Isaiah Davis to their backfield.
Let’s just trust in Breece Hall as the “1.01” after they added a much-need LT in Round 1.
Elijah Mitchell (RB – SF)
The 49ers traded up to draft the super athletic Isaac Guerendo in the 4th round. I’d like to think that Mitchell is dialed in as CMC’s handcuff, but Guerendo’s addition creates some doubt.
Also, Mitchell has never been the bill of health even as a No. 2 RB with the 49ers.
Here’s what the 49ers coaches had to say after they selected the Louisville RB per NBCSports.
“Well we love his speed,” coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters on Saturday. “We think he’s got a lot of speed. All our backs can run, but it’s nice to add one who possibly can run a little bit faster just for the change of pace and things like that. We like his running style. His running style I think is similar to Elijah [Mitchell] and the style that he runs with, he’s built that way and like the 40 that he has.”
Running backs coach Robert Turner Jr. was fully on board with the decision.
“Bobby loved him from the beginning,” Shanahan said. “He called him back at all the right times. He answered his texts. I’m just telling you, if you don’t do that, it’s hard to come back from that with Bobby. But, the same things I said, I mean we all really liked the speed part about him. But lots of guys can run. You have to be as good of a running back and the physicality he ran with how he was without the ball in his hand we felt he was a guy who played to our style and the skillset set could help us.”
Worth noting that the 49ers also signed another running back as UDFA, Missouri’s Cody Schrader.
TIGHT ENDS
Michael Mayer, we hardly knew ye.
The Raiders drafted the top pass-catcher available on the board in tight end Brock Bowers, which I don’t hate from a real-life perspective. But are we really honestly convinced that new LV OC Luke Getsy is going to create an offense that takes advantage of Bowers as a true big slot while feeding WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers? Let alone in an offense that HC Antonio Pierce wants to run the ball 30-plus times per game? With Aidan O’Connell/Gardner Minshew at quarterback?
We know that tight ends can be the most landing-dependent offensive pieces. Frankly, I just hate the spot with LV. Simply put, rookie tight ends need good QBs to produce.
Mayer was viewed as a Round 1 tight end and did nothing as a rookie tight end last year. Even if Bowers is superior, is it really enough to convince us he can have a Sam LaPorta-esque season? I am not convinced.
Bowers was the biggest loser for me in my rookie rankings, falling four spots from 4th to 8th overall after the conclusion of Round 1.
Dalton Schultz (TE – HOU)
He played in an offense with 3 strong WRs and the team just drafted C.J. Stroud’s former college tight end Cade Stover in the 4th round. Considering Schultz’s production got hit when Brevin Jordan played more last season, Schultz is a big loser even after re-signing with Houston.
Noah Fant (TE -SEA)
The Seahawks drafted a former Michigan tight end, A.J. Barner. Can we please just get Noah Fant in a full-time tight end role? Please? At least Barner is the one Michigan product that didn’t overlap with Mike Macdonald’s tenure in Michigan.
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