This is what we’ve been waiting for, fantasy football enthusiasts. The NFL Draft is under way, and we finally get to see where the rookie prospects are going to launch their professional careers. And NFL Draft landing spots allow us to start to zero in on fantasy football and dynasty rookie draft pick values.
As the players are selected, let’s dive into what our NFL Draft expert, Thor Nystrom, has to say for each pick made. Here you can find all of Thor’s 2024 NFL Draft Rankings and player comparisons. Below we’ll dive into a few notable names expected to be selected this week.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Outlook
Thor’s NFL Draft Profile & Player Comp
3. Rome Odunze | Washington
6027/212 | RAS: 9.91
Comp: Davante Adams
Odunze does not have Nabers’ electric movement skills, nor Harrison Jr.’s physical package/Hall of Fame education. But you stacked the trio’s traits across the spectrum, Odunze, while not finishing No. 1 in many categories, would be No. 3 in relatively few as well.
Odunze combines size, strength, physicality, speed, footwork, agility, hops, route-running know-how and ball skills to produce an answer for most situations. He profiles as an alpha boundary WR1 at the next level. On multiple teams rumored to be interested, that would occur on Day 1 (cough Giants cough).
Last season, Odunze was only deployed in the slot on 17.4% of his snaps, second-lowest of my top-15 WR. His 15.5 aDOT was third-highest. He was pressed off the line more than any receiver in this entire draft class.*
*(The reason for that has to do with the dirty little secret about his collegiate quarterback Michael Penix Jr.: Penix loved going to his first read – often Odunze – and defenses realized the only viable way to slow Washington’s offense was by disrupting Penix’s timing and pushing him off his spot).
But try as they might, opponents couldn’t impede Odunze. Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon called Odunze’s 80.0% success rate against press coverage the “most impressive mark” of Odunze’s charting profile.
Odunze has a dynamic release package, with precise footwork packages and bullish upper-body strength. He is not the most sudden changing directions at his breaks, but Odunze gives himself plenty of cushion into them by running routes at unorthodox tempos. The defender is never certain exactly where he’s headed and when he’ll make his move.
Odunze is also blessed with flash-bang acceleration out of those breaks, ensuring he will at least win the last stage of every transition. And because of Odunze’s speed – he was a star sprinter in high school – defensive backs must always guard against the possibility of Odunze hitting the downtown jets, which makes them think twice about jumping intermediate moves.
Odunze’s ball skills are truly special – to me, this is the most impressive aspect of his game. He’s a dog on the bone with the ball in the air. Last year, Odunze had a microscopic 3.2% drop rate on 140 targets (after posting a stellar 5.1% drop rate the year before). He has a preternatural feel for tracking, as though he is watching the ball’s flight on Google Glasses inside his helmet before he has actually turned his head.
Odunze was an incredible 20-for-27 in contested situations in 2023. Not only did he lead the class in contested catches, but Odunze also had the best contested catch rate of anyone in the double-digits. Odunze is so utterly comfortable in these situations – especially down the field – that he will sometimes appear to allow his man to get a bit closer with the ball in descent, perhaps to have a better feel for where exactly he is at the moment of truth for positioning purposes.
But Odunze also has a special skill at the catch point downfield to ensure he’s the only one who gets to make a legitimate play on the ball – he doesn’t put his hands up for the ball until the last possible moment, depriving defenders of the opportunity to compete with him for it.
Because of this honing device of his, Odunze is one of those guys who will immediately and drastically alter his plan to try to save poorly thrown balls. He’ll work back against the grain for underthrown balls, he’ll leap and extend for overthrows, he’ll pick low screamers clean before they hit the carpet and he’ll line his toes on the chalk to corral balls thrown too far up the sideline.
From the tape I watched this process, anecdotally, no receiver in this class was better at turning incompletions into completions than Odunze. He is a quarterback’s best friend who also led this class with 87 catches that ended in a first down or touchdown.
Odunze could have declared for last year’s draft. If he had, he would have been a first-rounder – likely somewhere in that 20-24 range where we saw four straight WRs come off the board. Instead, Odunze returned to school, where he made the leap to abject superstardom.
While Odunze may wind up WR3 in this class – it was a photo finish between him and Nabers for my WR2 designation – Odunze is a no-doubt top-10 pick. This version of Odunze easily would have been WR1 in last year’s class, and multiple others over the past decade.
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4. Ladd McConkey | Georgia
5115/186 | RAS: 9.34
Comp: Jordan Addison
Ladd McConkey is the JJ McCarthy of the WR class: McConkey’s profile cannot be encapsulated by collegiate counting stats. McConkey, like McCarthy, hails from a 12-personnel, run-leaning offense for a program that slapped opponents silly and yanked starters early.
McConkey also wasn’t helped by the lower back strain he suffered in last year’s training camp. He played through the pain – the kid is tough as nails – before he was given a rest for the last two regular season games in advance of the epic SEC title showdown against Alabama.
Volume stats – which exist in a vacuum of context – lie. Context is the oxygen truth that needs to exist. And here’s the truth about Ladd McConkey: On a per-snap basis, he was a top-3 WR in this class.
Want an absurd stat? In 2023, more than 80% of the balls that left the quarterback’s hands headed in McConkey’s direction became completions. That wasn’t courtesy of a diet of spoon-fed targets – McConkey’s 12.2 aDOT was the exact same as Malik Nabers’. McConkey’s 3.26 YPRR ranked No. 4 among FBS prospects in this class.
One month after McConkey’s injury-riddled 2023 season came to an end, I was chewing ice cubes on a Delta flight headed to Mobile, Alabama. I didn’t know exactly where I stood on Ladd McConkey. I knew he was good… but just how good was he, exactly?
Over the next 48 hours, McConkey systematically destroyed all comers in one-on-one drills. No defensive back within Mobile’s city limits was safe. The shoot-em-up spectacle evoked Tank Dell’s show-stopping performance the year before when defenders began freely grabbing Dell’s jersey on Day 2 of practices so they wouldn’t get torched in front of NFL evaluators again. One year later, on the same field, on the same day of practice, McConkey was being.
With a night of sleep to think about their futures, the DB group had lost its appetite for playing McConkey off the line in one-on-ones. Better to keep Ladd McConkey in front of you than try your odds at hip-to-hip again. Nobody had the guts to start a snap within seven yards of Ladd McConkey.
At that point, one assumes, McConkey’s representatives told him the NFL had seen enough. Practice returned to normal on Thursday.
McConkey is the opposite of a “first guy off the bus” guy. I’ll freely concede it: I had to see it in person to totally get it. He is truly special at one thing and one thing only: Separating. If you leave one defender on McConkey in man coverage, McConkey’s shaking him. It just is what it is.
That’s good because McConkey is mediocre in contested situations. He is so rarely in them that it almost doesn’t bear mentioning. McConkey played three-quarters of his snaps in UGA’s 2-TE system. In the NFL, like the guy I comp him to, Jordan Addison, I think McConkey could play either, and also interchangeably shift between the two on a snap-to-snap basis.
McConkey’s work in the short- and intermediate-areas speaks for itself. His separation percentile, during his less-than-100-percent 2023 campaign, was top three in this class. He’s been undersold on the downfield stuff. On those concepts, McConkey bursts off the line and shoots up the field with 4.39 gas.
He’s extremely sudden into and out of route breaks. Every break is Origami, a clean angle. He flees the crime scene with high-octane acceleration. Zone coverage won’t save you. McConkey is devilishly clever against it, sussing out coverage sectors immediately and parking himself in your sore spot.
McConkey’s ankle-breaking agility plays with the ball in his hands – he makes defenders miss and forces off-angle attempts in space. McConkey broke four more tackles than Marvin Harrison Jr. on 50 less receptions, and five less than Rome Odunze on 62 fewer catches.
McConkey doesn’t have a huge catch radius, but he’s a contortionist at the catch point, someone who will drop to his knees for poorly thrown balls, extend high, and grab balls outside his frame on the move.
When I departed that airplane in Mobile, Alabama, I thought Ladd McConkey was going to be a very good NFL slot receiver. By the time I boarded the return flight, he had shot that theory full of holes. McConkey gave it a Viking funeral at the NFL Combine with a 93rd-percentile flaming arrow.
McConkey doesn’t have NFL superstar physical gifts. Which means he likely will not be a superstar. But Ladd McConkey will not fail. The same cannot be said for the poor souls who draw him without help in man coverage.
Check out more NFL Draft profiles and player comps from Thor in our 2024 NFL Draft Guide
5. Brian Thomas Jr. | LSU
6027/209 | RAS: 9.84
Comp: Christian Watson
If anyone tells you that they know exactly what Brian Thomas Jr. will become at the next level, they’re lying. But here’s the good news: Thomas brings a high floor (as a pop-the-top WR2 whose speed must be respected), and the potential of a very high ceiling (legitimate NFL WR1).
Thomas was a top-100 overall recruit who started nine games at LSU as a true freshman on a team with a WR room chock-full of future NFL players. Thomas Jr. took a backseat his first two seasons amid the crowd, posting 359 yards as a freshman and 361 the next year.
But last year, Thomas made the leap, with a stellar 68-1177-17 receiving line in the SEC. His advanced stats are dazzling. Thomas Jr. was 82nd percentile against single coverage, 88th percentile in separation rate and 89th percentile in separation rate against single coverage. Only four other receivers in this class were 82nd percentile or above in all three metrics – and none sit above him in these rankings.
Not only that, but Thomas’ 147.8 passer rating on targets was the best of my top-20 ranked receivers. A gazelle of an athlete and a former star high school basketball player, Thomas is a special downfield playmaker.
Last year, his one season of stardom in college football, Thomas ran an extremely parred-down route tree that rarely asked him to change directions horizontally. Roughly two-thirds of Thomas’ routes were either go-routes, comebacks, or slants. Many of Thomas’ wins came courtesy of his athleticism.
If that continues to be the case at the next level – if his usage remains case-specific because he never becomes skilled at creating separation with nuance or acumen – Thomas will become a solid NFL WR2. Former LSU WR DJ Chark would be an example of this – someone whose size/speed and ball skills demanded respect, but who didn’t have the other clubs in his bag to affect games outside of that utility.
But if Thomas improves his route-running and becomes a complete receiver, he has all the physical ability needed to become a star WR1 at the next level.
Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings
Our analysts provide their latest rookie draft rankings below. And also check out our expert consensus dynasty rookie draft rankings!
More Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- DBro’s Top 50 Rankings & Player Notes
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