The NFL Combine and college Pro Days are behind us while the NFL Draft is right around the corner. There has been no shortage of coverage for these prospects, but I wanted to bring a different spin on player comparisons. To do this, I use a technique called clustering, which allows me to bucket these players into several statistical profiles and compare one to another. In the clustering, I included a combination of production, efficiency, athleticism and usage metrics in hopes of capturing who these players are.
- NFL Draft 2024 Prospect Comparisons: QB | TE | RB
- Thor’s Top 500 Rookie Rankings & Comps
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
- NFL Draft Needs for Every Team
NFL Draft 2024 Prospect Comparisons
This article will cover the methodology with commentary on some of the standout players from the 2024 class. Once again we have a seemingly loaded wide receiver draft class set to shake up the fantasy football landscape. There’s a trio of receivers set to be taken in the top 10 picks of the draft with another four possibly drafted in the first round. This class offers a mix of strong X receivers along with slot role-players. So, no matter what your team needs, they’ll find it in this draft class.
Methodology
Before I get into the analysis, I want to explain the methodology and techniques I used along with delineating what this analysis is and, more importantly, what it is not. Let’s start with the latter.
This analysis is a descriptive way to compare a player’s college stats and athleticism to historical results. This is not a predictive indicator of future NFL and fantasy success or that a player with similar athletic and production stats will have the same career.
In terms of the methodology, I used a principal component analysis (PCA) using data since 2016. If you’re unfamiliar with PCA, it is a way to “squish” several variables (in this case, each of our statistical metrics), into just a couple of variables – our principal components – thus simplifying our dataset and reducing noise. Put another way, PCA helps us find fewer features that will represent our data (or prospects) in a more compressed way.
This also allows me to visualize the results on two axes using the first two principal components, which I wouldn’t be able to do easily with the several metrics we have. This is also where we can see player comparisons – players that appear further away from the center of the chart are more unique in their results and fall into a more distinct category.
For wide receivers, below are the weights for the metrics for each of the two principal components. To calculate a player’s principal component, you can read these as linear equations. So. for principal component one, a player’s score is calculated as (-0.39*Height) + (-0.31*Weight) + (-0.08*Forty-Yard Dash) + (0.39*Receptions/Game) + (0.20*Rec Dominator) + (0.31*YPRR) + (0.422*TPRR) + (-0.23*Yards/Rec) + (-0.35*aDOT) + (0.34*Slot Rate).
I also calculated similarity scores between each prospect’s metrics profile – I only used the metrics used in the PCA above. For this, I calculated the Euclidean distance of each metric between each player to get the Cosine similarity, resulting in our similarity score. Below each player, I’ll give a brief list of the players whose statistical profile is most similar to the prospect, along with the similarity score. These scores are in a range of 0 to 1, with 1 meaning a player’s statistical profile is an exact match.
With that, let’s get into some analysis.
Wide Receiver Prospect Comparisons
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – Ohio State)
Most similar players: Cedrick Wilson (0.906), Courtland Sutton (0.822), Rashod Bateman (0.812)
Not only is Marvin Harrison Jr. considered the top-ranked wide receiver prospect in this class, but many also consider him the best overall prospect across all positions. It’s tough to poke holes in a receiver’s profile who put up 1,200 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns in back-to-back seasons and a career 2.98 yards per route run that puts him in the 91st percentile. Some of Harrison’s best traits are tough to capture with the data and can only be seen watching him on film.
The one area where analysts have criticized Harrison (at least compared to Malik Nabers) is after-the-catch stats. His career 5.1 yards after the catch (YAC) per reception was in just the 32nd percentile of receivers. It’s also worth noting Harrison didn’t participate in any offseason testing. But, when you’re a consensus top-five pick in the draft, what do you have to gain by doing so?
Malik Nabers (WR – LSU)
Most similar players: Jerry Jeudy (0.820), Skyy Moore (0.795), Justin Jefferson (0.790)
Malik Nabers, similar to teammate Jayden Daniels, had a meteoric rise in his fame this past season. In his final season, he recorded an astonishing 1,569 receiving yards and a 99th percentile Pro Football (PFF) receiving grade (93.1). Nabers is most well-known for his explosiveness after the catch — in his three years at LSU, he posted a 6.6 YAC per reception mark. What makes this more impressive is his 12.0-yard average depth of target (aDOT). So, not only did he get targeted downfield, but he also put on the burners to gain even more yards.
Throughout his career, Nabers played primarily from the slot (2022 was the only year where he lined up out wide more often) and got most of his production when lined up there. This could be seen as a signal to some that Nabers may not have the experience to play as a true X receiver. However, according to Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception, Nabers had a 78th percentile success rate against press coverage. Plus, he’ll have plenty of time to develop as he doesn’t turn 21 until late July and is the youngest receiver in his class. I think he’ll be just fine.
Rome Odunze (WR – Washington)
Most similar players: Andrei Iosivas (0.826), Courtland Sutton (0.806), Michael Pittman (0.774)
Rome Odunze rounds out the top three consensus receivers in this draft. He likely has a floor of being picked in the top 10 as there seems to be a decent-sized tier drop after Odunze that’ll make teams want to pounce, and rightfully so. Last year, Odunze had an FBS-leading 1,640 receiving yards, which out-produced his previous three years at Washington (they say Rome wasn’t built in a day, right?). Though it may have been more a consequence of who was throwing him the ball, Odunze had a deep 15.5-yard aDOT in his final year. Still, he caught 21-of-28 contested targets.
Running a 4.45-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, Odunze had a 9.92 relative athletic score (RAS), second in the class, and fits the bill as having the prototypical wide receiver build. The question remains if Odunze’s final year was a flash in the pan or something to build off of further.
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – LSU)
Most similar players: DK Metcalf (0.844), Tyquan Thornton (0.778), Chase Claypool (0.730)
To use lingo from my F1 fandom, Brian Thomas Jr. is considered the best of the rest. Thomas was overshadowed by teammate Malik Nabers but still had an outstanding final season. He recorded nearly 1,200 receiving yards while having a nose for the end zone with a team-leading 17 receiving touchdowns. Not only did Thomas find the end zone often, but he also had a knack for moving the chains:
Highest percentage of targets to result in a 1st down or TD among all Power 5 WRs with 50+ targets in 2023:
1. Roman wilison (58%)
2. Brian Thomas Jr. (56%)– Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) April 9, 2024
Like Nabers, though, Thomas was a bit of a one-hit wonder as he failed to top 4o0 receiving yards in each of his first two seasons at LSU. Accordingly, we should be equally encouraged by Thomas’ profile as he was charted as having an 83rd percentile success rate against press coverage, per Matt Harmon. Thomas spent 87% of his snaps split out wide, so the team set to draft him could be getting a bonafide WR1.
2024 NFL Mock Drafts
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Matthew Jones (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Andrew Erickson (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Kent Weyrauch (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Derek Brown (1.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft With Trades: Mike Fanelli (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Russell Brown (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: PJ Moran (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft With Trades: Marco Enriquez (1.0 | 2.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft With Trades: Dennis Sosic
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Two-Round Writer Collaborative
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: First Round Picks & Predictions
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Top 20 Picks & Predictions
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Top 10 Picks & Predictions
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Early Picks & Predictions
- Early 2024 NFL Mock Draft with Trades: Picks & Predictions
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Google Play | Spotify | Stitcher | TuneIn | RSS | YouTube
