The 2024 NFL Draft is less than a week away. While the three-day event is the highlight of the NFL offseason, there is one thing fans love more than anything else — blockbuster trades.
Unfortunately, the 2020 and 2021 NFL Drafts had only seven first-round trades combined. Thankfully, we’ve seen more Day 1 deals over the past few years. There were nine first-round trades during the 2022 NFL Draft despite none involving top-10 picks. While last year’s first round wasn’t as trade-happy, there were six draft-day trades, including three in the top 10, two involving the Arizona Cardinals.
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Many believe the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft could have multiple blockbuster trades. Let’s look at which teams could trade up and which could trade down on Thursday night.
Teams Most Likely to Trade Up
Minnesota Vikings
It’s no secret the Vikings want to trade up for a quarterback. Sam Darnold is a capable bridge-gap option, but Minnesota needs a long-term quarterback after losing Kirk Cousins in free agency. They are the most likely team to trade up for a quarterback, as they have a win-now roster and extra draft capital but arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL.
The Vikings traded a pair of second-round picks (one in 2024 and one in 2025) to the Houston Texans in mid-March for the 23rd overall pick in the first round. They wouldn’t have made that move if they didn’t plan on using that pick to move up for a quarterback. Expect Minnesota to trade into the top five on Thursday night and draft J.J. McCarthy.
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona has been a popular team in mock drafts to trade down from the fourth overall pick with Minnesota. While that still could happen on Thursday night, expect the Cardinals to be aggressive in the first round. Last year, general manager Monti Ossenfort famously traded down with the Texans, adding a first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He then traded back up with the Detroit Lions to select Paris Johnson Jr. with the sixth overall pick.
Ossenfort has proven he will manipulate the draft board. Arizona has 11 picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, including three in the top 35. Expect the Cardinals to move up from their late first-round pick at 27th overall, regardless of what they do with their top-five pick. They need significant help up front and in the secondary. Don’t be surprised if Arizona moves into the late teens to grab an edge rusher or a cornerback.
Washington Commanders
While everyone is focused on which quarterback the team will take with the second overall pick, Washington has five other picks in the top 100, including a pair of early second-round selections. The Commanders have been busy in Adam Peters’ first year with the team. They added over 20 free agents, with most coming on defense. However, the one position Washington didn’t address in free agency is left tackle after releasing Charles Leno Jr. last month.
Many believe there will be a run on offensive tackles in the teens. There could be a run of five offensive tackles drafted between the New York Jets at 10th overall and the Pittsburgh Steelers at 20th overall. While the Commanders could grab Jordan Morgan or Kingsley Suamataia with their first second-round pick, expect Peters to explore trading back into the first round to grab an offensive tackle. With five picks on Day 2, Washington can be aggressive in trade talks.
Teams Most Likely to Trade Down
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have been a popular team in mock drafts to trade down with the Vikings. It would be ironic that Los Angeles trades down in Jim Harbaugh’s first draft with the team so Minnesota can secure his former Michigan quarterback. However, that’s not the only way the Chargers could trade down on Thursday. If the Vikings trade up with the Cardinals, no one should be surprised if they move back up to the fifth overall pick to secure Marvin Harrison Jr.
Harbaugh has re-shaped the offense this offseason, moving on from Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler. He wants to improve the offensive line and run the ball. Don’t be surprised if Los Angeles takes an offensive tackle over a wide receiver despite their massive need at the position, whether they trade down or not. Ideally, the Chargers can trade down with the Vikings and get picks 11 and 23, allowing them to draft an offensive tackle and a wide receiver.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is heading into their first NFL Draft without Pete Carroll as the head coach since 2009. While he is part of the front office, general manager John Schneider will have more say in what the team does during the draft. Despite having multiple needs, don’t be surprised if he slides back in the first round. The Seahawks traded their second-round pick to the New York Giants for Leonard Williams at the trade deadline.
They also sent a third-round pick to the Commanders as part of the Sam Howell trade, leaving them with one selection in the top 80. Therefore, don’t be surprised if Schneider trades back in the first round if he can add a Day 2 pick. With the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals picking right behind Seattle, they are a prime candidate to trade back with a wide receiver-needy team like the Buffalo Bills.
Miami Dolphins
Unfortunately, the Dolphins lost multiple free agents this offseason because of a lack of salary cap space. Christian Wilkins and Robert Hunt each signed contracts worth at least $100 million with new teams this offseason, leaving Miami with two massive holes on the roster. Meanwhile, the team had their third-round pick confiscated for illegal tampering with Tom Brady and Sean Payton a few years ago.
The Dolphins have only six picks in the NFL Draft, including only two in the top 157 selections. Therefore, expect them to explore trade-back options if they can add Day 2 picks. Miami has several holes to fill and not enough picks to do it. With the Philadelphia Eagles picking one spot behind them in the first round, the Dolphins are the ideal trade partner for anyone wanting to secure a cornerback or edge rusher.
More 2024 NFL Mock Drafts
Here are a few early predictions for the 2024 NFL Draft. We’ll continue to add our 2024 NFL Mock Drafts leading up to the start of Round 1.
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Thor Nystrom (1.0 | 2.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Matthew Jones (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Andrew Erickson (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Kent Weyrauch (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Derek Brown (1.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft With Trades: Mike Fanelli (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0) | 5.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Russell Brown (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: PJ Moran (1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft With Trades: Marco Enriquez (1.0 | 2.0)
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft With Trades: Dennis Sosic
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Two-Round Writer Collaborative
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: First-Round Picks & Predictions
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Top 20 Picks & Predictions
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Top 10 Picks & Predictions
- 2024 NFL Mock Draft: Early Picks & Predictions
- Early 2024 NFL Mock Draft with Trades: Picks & Predictions
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
